FN2 Research

Markets, explained.

Cited, no-noise breakdowns of why stocks move — earnings reactions, macro shifts, and the data behind the headlines.

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Geopolitics · Oil · Middle East · Energy · Tariffs · Market Risk · Iran · Houthis

Two Chokepoints, One Oil Market: How Houthi Blockade and Hormuz Escalation Are Reshaping Risk

With Brent crude above $95 and tankers U-turning in the Red Sea, the Houthi maritime embargo on Saudi Arabia has turned a single-chokepoint crisis into a two-chokepoint problem. Energy stocks are surging, tech is slipping, and new Section 301 tariffs on 60 countries add a second layer of risk.

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Earnings · AI · Semiconductors · Energy · Macro

Alphabet's $45B Capex Reckoning Meets an Oil Tape on Edge

The Nasdaq led Wall Street lower on Wednesday as Alphabet's blowout quarter came with negative free cash flow and a promise of even higher 2027 capex, Tesla missed on EPS with a $1.1B cash burn, and oil surged toward $95 on the 11th night of Iran strikes.

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IPO · Market Structure · SpaceX · AI Infrastructure · Liquidity · Lockup Expiration

SpaceX's $116 Billion Lockup Test: Why August 6 Could Reshape the 2026 IPO Market

Q2 2026 was the largest IPO quarter on record at $104.8B, led by SpaceX's $75B debut. But with 911.5 million SpaceX shares unlocking August 6, AI infrastructure IPOs stumbling, and liquidity depth contracting 23% year-to-date, the market faces its most significant supply test of the year.

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Geopolitics · Oil · Energy · Iran · Strait of Hormuz · Red Sea · Bab al-Mandeb · Tariffs

Dual Chokepoint: Why the Iran War Just Hit Oil Markets From Both Sides

Brent crude surged past $95 a barrel as the US-Iran war opened a second front at the Bab al-Mandeb strait while Hormuz traffic collapsed to single digits. With 60-country tariffs also looming, the dual chokepoint crisis is now pressuring yields, tech earnings, and the Fed's next move.

Aerial view of a large oil tanker ship on the open ocean at sunset.

Markets Mark Time Between Oil's Surge and Big Tech's Earnings Test

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Lockup Cliffs, a Reg NMS Rewrite, and a Korean Warning: Market Structure at a Crossroads

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Geopolitics · Oil · Iran · Tariffs · Taiwan · Energy · Defense · Trade

Three Chokepoints, One Trading Day: Oil, Tariffs, and the Taiwan Strait Collide

Brent crude surged to a six-week high near $95 as US-Iran strikes entered their 11th night with no diplomatic offramp, five Saudi tankers reversed course in the Red Sea, and Trump threatened to bomb Iranian infrastructure for every attack on shipping. Simultaneously, a 25% tariff on Brazilian goods took effect, phased generic-drug tariffs of up to 200% were announced, and Chinese helicopters crossed the Taiwan Strait median line for the first time — a three-front escalation in a single session.

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Semiconductors · Big Tech Earnings · Oil · Federal Reserve · AI · Market Snapshot

Semis Are the Clean Tell as Big Tech De-Risks Into Earnings Night

The VanEck Semiconductor ETF's 1.2% intraday gain is offsetting weakness in META and MSFT ahead of Alphabet and Tesla's after-close reports. Brent above $91 and a 46.5% implied probability of a July Fed hike form the backdrop the chip rally is running against.

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IPO · Market Structure · SpaceX · Liquidity · Lockup · Volatility · Treasury · Biotech

IPO Window Meets a Liquidity Drain: $1.3B in New Listings, SpaceX Lockup Looms

Three IPOs price this week — Jersey Mike's ($1B), Reformation ($225M), and Scribe Therapeutics ($100M) — while SpaceX's August 4 earnings trigger the first lockup release of up to 911.5M shares. Treasury settlements drain $106B in liquidity just as single-stock volatility hits a record premium over the VIX.

A fleet of cargo ships docked near oil storage tanks along a serene coastline with a clear blue sky, illustrating the shipping chokepoint crisis in the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz.
Geopolitics · Oil · Iran · Shipping · Currencies · Tariffs · Yen · Earnings

Dual Chokepoint Crisis: Brent Tops $95 as Houthis Open New Front at Bab al-Mandeb

Brent crude briefly topped $95 as Houthis threatened a Bab al-Mandeb blockade while Hormuz traffic runs at 15% of pre-war levels. The yen hit a 40-year low of 163 per dollar, 50% Canada tariffs add a second front, and Alphabet kicks off big tech earnings — all on the same morning.

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Semiconductors · Earnings · Mag 7 · Macro · Oil · Iran

Chip Rebound Buys Time, But Tonight's Mag 7 Earnings Will Write the Verdict

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IPO · Market Structure · SpaceX · Buybacks · Liquidity · Index Inclusion · Lockups · Equity Issuance

The August Lockup Wall: SpaceX, the IPO Pipeline, and the End of the Buyback Era

SpaceX has fallen below its $135 IPO price, with $109 billion in locked shares set to unlock August 6. JPMorgan sees $1.5 trillion in net equity supply by 2027, reversing the buyback era. Here is what the lockup calendar, IPO pipeline, and Treasury liquidity drain tell us about the market's structural test.