FN2 Research
Markets, explained.
Cited, no-noise breakdowns of why stocks move — earnings reactions, macro shifts, and the data behind the headlines.
The $200 Billion Supply Test: IPO Normalization Meets SpaceX's Lockup Cliff
US IPO volume is on pace to exceed $200 billion in 2026, yet Goldman Sachs argues this is normalization, not a bubble. The real test comes August 6, when roughly $123 billion in SpaceX shares unlocks two days after the company's first earnings report.
Three-Front Geopolitical Squeeze: Oil Chokepoints, 60-Country Tariffs, and Taiwan's New Normal
Brent's $100 round-trip, a 60-economy tariff regime, and Taiwan's new gray-zone normal: three concurrent geopolitical fronts are feeding one inflation narrative the bond market has already begun to price.
The Chip Selloff Is Testing the AI Trade — and Next Week Won't Let Up
A 3.3% Friday drop in the VanEck Semiconductor ETF to $561 pulled the Nasdaq 100 down 1.1% even as the Dow rose 0.5%, splitting the market along an AI-spending fault line just days before the FOMC meets and Apple reports.
The $123 Billion Unlock: SpaceX Lockups Begin Expiring as the Mega-IPO Pipeline Tests Market Capacity
Two Straits, One Crisis: Brent's Triple-Digit Return and the Tariff Wall Converging on Markets
Brent crude's return above $100, driven by simultaneous attacks on two Middle East oil chokepoints, collides with Trump's new 10–12.5% tariffs on 60 countries and a threatened EU investigation — all while the 10-year Treasury yield hits its highest since January 2025.
The Nasdaq Is the Cleanest Tell: AI Capex Meets a $100 Oil Ceiling
The Nasdaq's 2.1% weekly drop is the cleanest tell in this week's snapshot: AI capex shocks from Alphabet and Tesla carved the tech sector's worst day in months while crude tested $100 on Iran escalation. Yet June CPI posted its first monthly decline since 2020 and consumer sentiment hit a five-month high — next week's megacap earnings and the Fed decision will test which signal holds.
August's Supply Cliff: $116B SpaceX Unlock Meets Nasdaq's New Delisting Floor
SpaceX's August 6 lockup expiry — the largest in financial history — collides with Nasdaq's new $5 million delisting rule. Together they could reshape U.S. equity liquidity for the rest of 2026.
Three Chokepoints, Two Wars, One Bond Market Flashing Red
Two Weeks of Losses, $100 Oil, and an AI Capex Reckoning: The Tape Heads Into Fed Week
Alphabet and Tesla got punished for spending even as they beat estimates, Brent crossed $100 on Red Sea attacks, and the Fed meets next week with inflation still at 3.5% — all while Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon are on deck.
Net Equity Supply Turns Positive: The SpaceX Lockup Cliff and 2026's Issuance Test
Net US equity supply turned positive in Q1 2026 for the first time since 2021, ending two decades of share-count shrinkage. H1 2026 produced record issuance of $307.7 billion. SpaceX's August 6 lockup expiration frees $116 billion in shares — the largest such event in financial history.
Three Chokepoints, No Way Out: Oil Breaks $100 as Every Shipping Route Comes Under Fire
Oil tankers are under attack at three of the world's most critical energy chokepoints simultaneously — Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, and the Black Sea. Brent's break above $100 has sent the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.71%, markets now price a 36% chance of a Fed hike next week, and RBC warns a worst-case scenario could push crude past the 2008 peak of $148.