Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy33 ratings
Bullish2060.6%
Neutral1339.4%
Bearish00.0%
1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.
Waste Management, Inc. · WM · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
WM Q1 2026: Pricing and Sustainability Power EBITDA Growth Despite Soft Volumes
Waste Management delivered a solid start to FY2026, beating EPS estimates ($1.81 vs. $1.75) while narrowly missing revenue ($6.23B vs. $6.28B). Operating EBITDA grew nearly 6% year-over-year, driven by pricing discipline, technology-enabled cost efficiencies, and exceptional performance in sustainability businesses -- renewable natural gas EBITDA more than doubled and recycling EBITDA rose 18% despite commodity price headwinds. Free cash flow doubled to $920M, enabling $730M in shareholder returns and bringing leverage back within target. Management reaffirmed full-year guidance despite weather-related volume softness, citing an expected second-half volume recovery as conditions normalize. The stock initially rose 1.3% on results but subsequently drifted down 6.9%, suggesting the market questioned the durability of the volume trajectory or the quality of the beat. With the…
Reported After market closeNYSEIndustrials
$96.14B market cap
100quality score
Company context
Snapshot as of publicationWaste Management, Inc. (WM) functions as a premier provider of environmental waste solutions across North America, serving a diverse client base that includes residential, commercial, industrial, and municipal customers. The company's core operations involve comprehensive collection services, which include gathering and transporting both waste materials and recyclables from their initial point of generation to designated transfer stations, material recovery facilities (MRFs), or final disposal sites. Waste Management maintains an extensive network of facilities, owning, developing, and operating landfill gas-to-energy plants within the United States, in addition to managing numerous transfer stations.…
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$1.81
Consensus $2
EPS surprise
+3.4%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$6.23B
Consensus $6.28B
Revenue surprise
-0.8%
Reported versus consensus
Earnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$239.41Current
$150Low
$217.19Average
$264High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Jul 29, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotiabank | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 8, 2026 |
| CIBC | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 30, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 30, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Baird | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Apr 16, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 10, 2026 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 30, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jan 9, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Dec 17, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jul 30, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 22, 2025 |
| HSBC | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Apr 25, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 23, 2025 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 31, 2024 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Erste Group | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jun 14, 2024 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 20, 2023 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Feb 6, 2023 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Mar 13, 2020 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Downgrade | Oct 18, 2019 | |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 18, 2019 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 8, 2019 |
| Argus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 5, 2018 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Feb 20, 2018 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Jan 3, 2018 |
| Wedbush | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Oct 13, 2016 |
| Imperial Capital | In Line | In Line | Maintain | Feb 19, 2016 |
| Wunderlich Securities | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 19, 2014 |
| Wunderlich | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 19, 2014 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $239.41. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIBC | Analyst unavailable | $244 | $228.98 | +1.9% | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $264 | $223.13 | +10.3% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $250 | $222.79 | +4.4% | Jan 21, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $260 | $217.86 | +8.6% | Jan 9, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Connor Cerniglia | $260 | $217.94 | +8.6% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $256 | $216.62 | +6.9% | Nov 24, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $238 | $204.51 | -0.6% | Nov 13, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $242 | $196.77 | +1.1% | Nov 4, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Tobey Sommer | $260 | $202.72 | +8.6% | Oct 29, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Konark Gupta | $254 | $202.71 | +6.1% | Oct 29, 2025 |
| Oppenheimer | Noah Kaye | $262 | $204.23 | +9.4% | Oct 29, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Konark Gupta | $264 | $219.25 | +10.3% | Oct 10, 2025 |
| CIBC | Kevin Chiang | $228 | $217.6 | -4.8% | Oct 30, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Devin Dodge | $220 | $216.55 | -8.1% | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Scotiabank | Konark Gupta | $225 | $216.99 | -6.0% | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Tobey Sommer | $250 | $219.11 | +4.4% | Oct 29, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Michael Feniger | $225 | $208.26 | -6.0% | Oct 29, 2024 |
| Scotiabank | Konark Gupta | $220 | $209.09 | -8.1% | Oct 3, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Devin Dodge | $213 | $198.48 | -11.0% | Jul 26, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Manthey | $216 | $199.92 | -9.8% | Jul 26, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Jeffrey Silber | $212 | $201.64 | -11.4% | Jun 3, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Faiza Alwy | $241 | $208.33 | +0.7% | May 22, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Manthey | $222 | $212.15 | -7.3% | Apr 30, 2024 |
| CIBC | Kevin Chiang | $220 | $211.73 | -8.1% | Apr 29, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Manthey | $214 | $207.53 | -10.6% | Apr 23, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Walter Spracklin | $211 | $206.93 | -11.9% | Apr 8, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $151 | $151.82 | -36.9% | Feb 6, 2023 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $180 | $151.62 | -24.8% | Feb 2, 2023 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $165 | $152.02 | -31.1% | Jan 10, 2023 |
| Citigroup | Bryan Burgmeier | $183 | $157.67 | -23.6% | Jan 6, 2023 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $173 | $166.23 | -27.7% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $169 | $164.15 | -29.4% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| Scotiabank | Mark Neville | $180 | $166.76 | -24.8% | Apr 27, 2022 |
| Argus Research | David Coleman | $180 | $153.95 | -24.8% | Oct 27, 2021 |
| Bank of America Securities | Michael Feniger | $154 | $153.95 | -35.7% | Oct 27, 2021 |
| Oppenheimer | Noah Kaye | $152 | $144.14 | -36.5% | Jul 16, 2021 |
| UBS | Jon Windham | $150 | $135.06 | -37.3% | Apr 29, 2021 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Michael E. Hoffman | $155 | $134.12 | -35.3% | Apr 28, 2021 |
| CIBC | Kevin Chiang | $140 | $134.12 | -41.5% | Apr 28, 2021 |
Track every rating change on WM the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeMarket reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
+1.3%
Event window
SPY move
-0.0%
Same window
Abnormal move
+1.3%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.4×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-6.9%
Up to 20 sessions
WMSPY benchmark
Follow WM with an agent that reads every filing, transcript, and price print. Free to start.
Try FN2 freeTranscript intelligence
What changed
EPS of $1.81 beat the $1.75 consensus estimate by 3.4%; revenue of $6.23B missed the $6.28B estimate by 0.8%. Operating EBITDA grew approximately 6% year-over-year, powered by pricing strength and technology-driven cost reductions. Renewable natural gas segment EBITDA more than doubled after seven new RNG facilities came online since 2025. Recycling EBITDA rose 18% despite commodity price declines. Health care solutions posted approximately 12% EBITDA growth, tracking toward $300M in run-rate synergies by 2027. Free cash flow doubled to $920M, with $730M returned to shareholders via dividends and buybacks. IRS clarified production tax credit qualification, expected to yield $30-35M in annual benefit through 2029. Capex outlook shifted from increasing to decreasing as the 2023-2026 sustainability capex program nears completion. AI-enabled safety coaching and on-truck cameras deployed to reduce driver turnover and improve safety metrics.
Guidance delta
Management maintained full-year guidance. The prior quarter guided to 6.2% operating EBITDA growth and nearly 30% free cash flow growth for 2026; management reaffirmed confidence in meeting these targets despite Q1 weather-related volume softness. Capex outlook shifted from increasing to decreasing as the sustainability capex program approaches completion. Three additional RNG plants are expected online in Q2, and the tuck-in acquisition pipeline targets $100-200M of deals in 2026.
Key takeaways
- EPS of $1.81 beat the $1.75 estimate by 3.4%; revenue of $6.23B missed the $6.28B estimate by 0.8%.
- Operating EBITDA grew nearly 6% YoY, driven by pricing strength and technology-driven cost efficiencies.
- Renewable natural gas EBITDA more than doubled; recycling EBITDA rose 18% despite commodity price headwinds.
- Health care solutions posted ~12% EBITDA growth, tracking toward $300M in run-rate synergies by 2027.
- Free cash flow doubled to $920M, enabling $730M in shareholder returns and bringing leverage back within target.
- Management reaffirmed full-year guidance, citing expected volume recovery in the second half as weather normalizes.
Management priorities
- Complete the 2023-2026 sustainability capex program and bring three additional RNG plants online in Q2.
- Pursue $100-200M of tuck-in acquisitions in 2026.
- Continue AI, automation, and routing technology rollouts across trucks and recycling plants.
- Stabilize ERP integration for health care solutions and capture cross-selling synergies.
- Maintain shareholder-focused capital allocation: dividends, share buybacks, and disciplined leverage.
Related earnings events
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-29T03:47:12.004952+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-29T03:47:12.001792+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.