WEC Energy Beats Q1 Estimates, Reaffirms Guidance as Data-Center Demand Accelerates

Transcript intelligence

What changed

Q1 FY2026 adjusted EPS of $2.45 exceeded the $2.30 consensus estimate by 6.5%. Revenue of $3.43 billion beat the $3.32 billion estimate by 3.4%. Management reaffirmed 2026 EPS guidance of $5.51 to $5.61 under normal weather assumptions. The Wisconsin PSC verbally approved the VLC tariff with an ROE of 10.48% to 10.98% and a 57% equity ratio, a key regulatory milestone for data-center growth. The dividend was raised 6.7%, marking 23 consecutive years of growth. New details emerged on Vantage's $15 billion investment phased through 2028 and Point Beach replacement at $2 to $2.5 billion for roughly 1 GW. The stock's abnormal move was -1.85% on the report session versus SPY at +0.80%, with a subsequent drift of -4.49% on 1.68x baseline volume.

Guidance delta

Guidance was maintained. Management reaffirmed 2026 EPS guidance of $5.51 to $5.61 per share under normal weather assumptions, consistent with the prior quarter's outlook. The long-term 7% to 8% CAGR EPS growth target with acceleration expected from 2028 remains in place. Capex outlook continues to increase with the $37.5 billion five-year capital plan.

Key takeaways

• Q1 FY2026 EPS of $2.45 beat consensus by 6.5%; revenue of $3.43 billion beat by 3.4%.
• 2026 full-year EPS guidance of $5.51 to $5.61 reaffirmed under normal weather.
• Wisconsin PSC verbally approved the VLC tariff with a favorable ROE of 10.48% to 10.98% and 57% equity ratio, enabling cost certainty for hyperscaler data-center customers.
• Data-center demand projected at 3.9 GW over five years, with up to 4 to 5 GW of additional capacity potential on already permitted sites.
• Vantage plans to invest $15 billion, with the first facility potentially online in late 2027 and phase completion by 2028.
• Point Beach nuclear replacement estimated at $2 to $2.5 billion for roughly 1 GW, split between combined-cycle gas and renewables.

Management priorities

• Execute the $37.5 billion five-year capital plan, including $730 million in new solar and battery storage projects.
• Advance Vantage, solar, battery, and natural-gas facility construction with on-line dates in 2027 to 2028.
• Pursue additional data-center site permitting and development to capture up to 4 to 5 GW of extra capacity.
• Replace Point Beach generation with a mix of combined-cycle gas and renewables within the five-year plan.
• Execute the Illinois pipe-retirement program and advance the related rate case.
• Extend operating lives of Old Creek units 7 and 8 through 2027.