Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy23 ratings
Bullish2191.3%
Neutral28.7%
Bearish00.0%
Vistra Corp. · VST · FY2025 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2025
Vistra Q2: Guidance Held as Power Demand and Capacity Expansion Advance
The supplied analysis supports a constructive operating picture: maintained guidance, strong Q2 execution, data-center demand, and capacity investments are offset by regulatory, execution, market-price, and leverage risks. This is evidence for, not proof of, durable earnings growth.
Reported Before market openNYSEUtilities
$47.21B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.81
Consensus $0.88
EPS surprise
-7.4%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$4.25B
Consensus $4.74B
Revenue surprise
-10.4%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-4.2%
Event window
SPY move
+0.8%
Same window
Abnormal move
-4.9%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.5×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-5.5%
Up to 20 sessions
VSTSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about VST FY2025 Q2
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did VST fall 4.2% after missing EPS estimates in FY2025 Q2?What changed in VST's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q2?Give me the bull and bear case for VST after FY2025 Q2 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Relative to the prior-quarter analysis, the call added the pending Lotus acquisition of seven gas facilities, the Perry relicensing outcome, and a higher free-cash-flow conversion target. It also identified outages at Martin Lake Unit 1 and Moss Landing as execution considerations.
Guidance delta
Maintained: management reaffirmed the 2025 adjusted EBITDA and free-cash-flow guidance ranges; the supplied analysis does not indicate a change to those ranges.
Key takeaways
- Management highlighted Q2 execution, including adjusted EBITDA of $1.349 billion and 95% commercial availability during the June heat wave.
- The company reaffirmed its 2025 guidance and highlighted an accelerated free-cash-flow conversion target above 60%.
- The pending Lotus transaction would add seven natural-gas facilities and about 2,600 MW to the portfolio, subject to closing and applicable clearances.
- Growth priorities span data-center load, solar and storage, nuclear upgrades, and coal-to-gas conversion, while outages and regulatory matters remain important watch items.
Management priorities
- Advance the Lotus natural-gas asset acquisition and expand the Northeast and PJM footprint.
- Invest in solar and storage while progressing nuclear upgrade studies and coal-to-gas conversion plans.
- Improve free-cash-flow conversion and continue share repurchases while pursuing investment-grade credit metrics.
- Support demand growth from data centers and hyperscalers across PJM and ERCOT.
Follow VST with an agent that reads every filing, transcript, and price print. Free to start.
Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$140.02Current
$116Low
$213.32Average
$298High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 5, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernstein | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 21, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 19, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Outperform | Sector Outperform | Maintain | Jul 15, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Feb 27, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Feb 10, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 12, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 12, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Nov 7, 2025 |
| Seaport Global | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 13, 2025 |
| Guggenheim | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 8, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 3, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Peer Perform | Upgrade | Jul 7, 2021 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jun 3, 2021 |
| Vertical Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 25, 2020 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Nov 7, 2019 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 17, 2019 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 9, 2019 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 5, 2018 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jun 8, 2017 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $140.02. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Williams Trading | Analyst unavailable | $202 | $139.75 | +44.3% | Oct 2, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Sunaina Ocalan | $181 | $138.37 | +29.3% | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Anthony Crowdell | $169 | $136.21 | +20.7% | Aug 24, 2026 |
| BNP Paribas | Analyst unavailable | $255 | $141.38 | +82.1% | Aug 19, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $206 | $147.25 | +47.1% | Aug 12, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Shahriar Pourreza | $212 | $140.59 | +51.4% | Aug 10, 2026 |
| UBS | William Appicelli | $227 | $150.7 | +62.1% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $298 | $159.23 | +112.8% | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | David Arcaro | $210 | $164.26 | +50.0% | Jun 24, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Sunaina Ocalan | $187 | $158.61 | +33.6% | Jun 16, 2026 |
| Seaport Global | Analyst unavailable | $230 | $153.93 | +64.3% | Jun 15, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $212 | $148.51 | +51.4% | May 21, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Julien Dumoulin-Smith | $190 | $144 | +35.7% | May 21, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $208 | $163.61 | +48.6% | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | David Arcaro | $208 | $156.31 | +48.6% | Apr 21, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $241 | $172.43 | +72.1% | Mar 2, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | David Arcaro | $215 | $171.4 | +53.5% | Feb 20, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Julien Dumoulin-Smith | $203 | $152.97 | +45.0% | Feb 10, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Carly Davenport | $205 | $143.07 | +46.4% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $227 | $156.6 | +62.1% | Jan 21, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Shahriar Pourreza | $236 | $166.6 | +68.5% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Andrew Weisel | $293 | $176.29 | +109.3% | Jan 12, 2026 |
| UBS | William Appicelli | $233 | $174.57 | +66.4% | Jan 12, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $244 | $166.37 | +74.3% | Jan 12, 2026 |
| Seaport Global | Analyst unavailable | $232 | $166.8 | +65.7% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $230 | $162.93 | +64.3% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | David Arcaro | $228 | $172.72 | +62.8% | Dec 16, 2025 |
| KeyBanc | Analyst unavailable | $217 | $175.14 | +55.0% | Nov 24, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $225 | $176.4 | +60.7% | Nov 20, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $238 | $199.3 | +70.0% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| Seaport Global | Analyst unavailable | $242 | $202.72 | +72.8% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $236 | $202.42 | +68.5% | Oct 3, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $223 | $201.62 | +59.3% | Sep 25, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Andrew Weisel | $256 | $217.92 | +82.8% | Sep 22, 2025 |
| Daiwa | Analyst unavailable | $250 | $208.31 | +78.5% | Sep 17, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | David Arcaro | $207 | $190.28 | +47.8% | Aug 21, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $229 | $208.64 | +63.5% | Aug 12, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Julien Dumoulin-Smith | $241 | $202.12 | +72.1% | Aug 8, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Durgesh Chopra | $192 | $152.06 | +37.1% | May 15, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $134 | $98.07 | -4.3% | Apr 4, 2025 |
| Daiwa | Analyst unavailable | $120 | $126.87 | -14.3% | Mar 5, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Shelby Tucker | $141 | $132.45 | +0.7% | Oct 3, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Julien Dumoulin-Smith | $137 | $111.63 | -2.2% | Sep 23, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | David Arcaro | $132 | $107.88 | -5.7% | Sep 23, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $125 | $91.74 | -10.7% | Sep 19, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Julien Dumoulin-Smith | $99 | $80.47 | -29.3% | Sep 12, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $120 | $79.08 | -14.3% | Aug 9, 2024 |
| Seaport Global | Angie Storozynski | $116 | $88.4 | -17.2% | Jun 13, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $121 | $93.46 | -13.6% | Jun 3, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | David Arcaro | $110 | $105.92 | -21.4% | May 28, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | James Thalacker | $109 | $95.24 | -22.2% | May 10, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Shelby Tucker | $95 | $83.24 | -32.2% | May 7, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $31 | $24.09 | -77.9% | Nov 11, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Shelby Tucker | $28 | $24.3 | -80.0% | May 9, 2022 |
Track every rating change on VST the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationVistra Corp., along with its various holdings, functions as a unified entity primarily engaged in retail electricity supply and power generation. The company organizes its operations across six distinct segments: Retail, Texas, East, West, Sunset, and Asset Closure. It directly provides electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial, and industrial clients throughout 20 U.S. states and the District of Columbia.…
Historical context
All VST earningsLatest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- ACNFY2026 Q4 · October 1, 2026+3.5% EPS+15.8% move
- MKCFY2026 Q3 · October 1, 2026+13.9% EPS-4.9% move
- NKEFY2027 Q1 · October 1, 2026+10.0% EPS-0.7% move
- CAGFY2027 Q1 · September 30, 2026+44.4% EPS-4.9% move
- FDSFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+3.9% EPS+3.8% move
- JBLFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+8.1% EPS-10.0% move
Get the VST recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-05T04:20:48.630256+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-05T04:20:48.626751+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-05. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.