Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy35 ratings
Bullish2468.6%
Neutral1028.6%
Bearish12.8%
Vulcan Materials Company · VMC · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026
Vulcan raises 2026 outlook as infrastructure demand stays strong
Vulcan's raised 2026 outlook supports a constructive operating thesis: infrastructure and data-center demand, backlog and cost discipline are offsetting softer single-family housing. The key test is whether pricing, project timing and mix can sustain the improvement.
Reported Before market openNYSEBasic Materials
$31.46B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$1.70
Consensus $2.11
EPS surprise
-19.4%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$1.91B
Consensus $1.96B
Revenue surprise
-2.3%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-7.8%
Event window
SPY move
+0.2%
Same window
Abnormal move
-7.9%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.0×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-12.2%
Up to 20 sessions
VMCSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about VMC FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did VMC fall 7.8% after missing EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in VMC's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for VMC after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
The main change was a higher 2026 outlook alongside evidence that cash gross profit per ton reached the company's long-term target. Management also highlighted a ready-mix divestiture, an active M&A pipeline and a larger data-center opportunity, while acknowledging housing and weather-related pressures.
Guidance delta
Management raised 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $2.4-$2.6 billion, from the prior quarter's $2.35-$2.45 billion outlook, while calling for 1%-3% aggregate shipment growth and 4%-6% pricing increases.
Key takeaways
- Management described 2025 as a strong year, with adjusted EBITDA up 13% and cash gross profit per ton reaching its long-term target.
- Public infrastructure and data-center construction remain the main demand drivers, supported by backlog and large-project bookings.
- Cost discipline remains central, with aggregate cash cost of sales expected to rise at a low-single-digit rate.
- The outlook still depends on infrastructure funding, project timing and improvement from weak single-family housing.
Management priorities
- Expand the aggregates franchise through selected geographies, projects and disciplined acquisitions.
- Invest $750-$800 million in 2026 capital expenditures for maintenance, operating and internal-growth projects.
- Focus on data-center and energy-related projects while completing the ready-mix divestiture.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$243.84Current
$180Low
$278.3Average
$360High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 30, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DA Davidson | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 21, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Underweight | Equal Weight | Downgrade | Sep 9, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 8, 2026 |
| Stephens & Co. | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Apr 6, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Overweight | Downgrade | Mar 4, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 21, 2025 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 2, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Peer Perform | Upgrade | Apr 10, 2025 |
| Loop Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 1, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 18, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 20, 2024 |
| Seaport Global | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Oct 24, 2023 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 22, 2023 |
| Atlantic Equities | Neutral | Overweight | Downgrade | Jan 24, 2023 |
| Vertical Research | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Sep 1, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 23, 2020 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 13, 2020 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 10, 2020 |
| CFRA | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | May 6, 2020 |
| Nomura | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 17, 2020 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Underperform | Upgrade | Oct 15, 2019 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 18, 2019 |
| Longbow Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 26, 2019 |
| Berenberg | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 3, 2019 |
| BB&T Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 4, 2016 |
| Susquehanna | Positive | Positive | Maintain | Feb 5, 2016 |
| Cleveland Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 27, 2013 |
| Sterne Agee | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Apr 16, 2013 |
| KeyBanc | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Sep 25, 2012 |
| Morgan Keegan | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Feb 17, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $243.84. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo | Timna Tanners | $254 | $258.3 | +4.2% | Sep 9, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $349 | $288.64 | +43.1% | Jul 8, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $293 | $303.82 | +20.2% | Jun 30, 2026 |
| Berenberg Bank | Analyst unavailable | $283 | $281.56 | +16.1% | Jun 2, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $325 | $300.29 | +33.3% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $333 | $296.7 | +36.6% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $298 | $297.89 | +22.2% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Stephens | Trey Grooms | $340 | $296.08 | +39.4% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $340 | $296.08 | +39.4% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Patrick Tyler Brown | $320 | $293.03 | +31.2% | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Timna Tanners | $305 | $296.86 | +25.1% | Apr 15, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $322 | $274.33 | +32.1% | Mar 9, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $320 | $300 | +31.2% | Mar 4, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $360 | $300.78 | +47.6% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $296 | $302.28 | +21.4% | Feb 18, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Brent Thielman | $320 | $302.22 | +31.2% | Feb 18, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Timna Tanners | $315 | $302.22 | +29.2% | Feb 18, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Timna Tanners | $317 | $299.73 | +30.0% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Brent Thielman | $330 | $291.77 | +35.3% | Nov 4, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Brian Brophy | $327 | $288.72 | +34.1% | Nov 3, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $320 | $295.35 | +31.2% | Oct 20, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $311 | $300.9 | +27.5% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| UBS | Steven Fisher | $318 | $275.51 | +30.4% | May 16, 2025 |
| Stephens | Trey Grooms | $315 | $263.63 | +29.2% | May 1, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $287 | $234.86 | +17.7% | Mar 4, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Mike Dahl | $269 | $251.69 | +10.3% | Jan 10, 2025 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Garik Shmois | $310 | $276.23 | +27.1% | Oct 31, 2024 |
| Stephens | Trey Grooms | $280 | $241.22 | +14.8% | Aug 8, 2024 |
| D.A. Davidson | Brent Thielman | $280 | $241.22 | +14.8% | Aug 7, 2024 |
| Stephens | Trey Grooms | $310 | $264.41 | +27.1% | May 3, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Mike Dahl | $272 | $264.41 | +11.6% | May 3, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Angel Castillo | $290 | $260.54 | +18.9% | Apr 15, 2024 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Garik Shmois | $305 | $265.62 | +25.1% | Apr 10, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Jerry Revich | $212 | $172.93 | -13.1% | Apr 3, 2023 |
| RBC Capital | Mike Dahl | $191 | $180.81 | -21.7% | Jan 13, 2023 |
| J.P. Morgan | Analyst unavailable | $200 | $179.1 | -18.0% | Dec 8, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Analyst unavailable | $185 | $159.99 | -24.1% | Sep 22, 2022 |
| D.A. Davidson | Analyst unavailable | $195 | $151.49 | -20.0% | Jul 19, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $180 | $149.83 | -26.2% | Jul 18, 2022 |
| Wolfe Research | Analyst unavailable | $194 | $146.29 | -20.4% | Jul 14, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $189 | $143.83 | -22.5% | Jun 23, 2022 |
| Argus Research | David Coleman | $240 | $204.96 | -1.6% | Nov 9, 2021 |
| D.A. Davidson | Brent Thielman | $227 | $204.94 | -6.9% | Nov 8, 2021 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Garik Shmois | $220 | $195.27 | -9.8% | Nov 5, 2021 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Stanley Elliott | $220 | $187.2 | -9.8% | Aug 27, 2021 |
| Berenberg Bank | Daniel Wang | $180 | $183.53 | -26.2% | Aug 18, 2021 |
| Deutsche Bank | Rohit Seth | $220 | $189.69 | -9.8% | May 6, 2021 |
Track every rating change on VMC the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationVulcan Materials Company, alongside its affiliated entities, stands as a prominent producer and distributor of construction aggregates, primarily operating within the United States. The company's activities are organized into four distinct divisions: Aggregates, Asphalt, Concrete, and Calcium. The Aggregates division focuses on providing essential materials like crushed stone, sand, gravel, and other foundational aggregates, along with related services. These products are vital for building and maintaining highways, public infrastructure, residential properties, and various commercial, industrial, and other non-residential structures.…
Historical context
All VMC earningsBasic Materials peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HMY Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | 0.0% | -6.2% | Harmony Gold posts record FY2026 while Eva Copper risks remain |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
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- DRIFY2027 Q1 · September 24, 20260.0% EPS-3.0% move
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- PAYXFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+1.5% EPS-8.8% move
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:36:15.940040+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-30T13:26:13.015197+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-30T13:26:13.012519+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-30. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.