UnitedHealth Group Incorporated · UNH · FY2024 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2024

UnitedHealth Reaffirms EPS Outlook as Optum Growth Continues

The supplied analysis supports a constructive but qualified view: diversified Optum growth, value-based care expansion, and technology efficiencies are supporting the outlook, while cyberattack recovery and medical-cost pressures remain material execution risks.

Reported Before market openNYSEHealthcare $368.64B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $6.80 Consensus $6.65
EPS surprise +2.3% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $97.86B Consensus $98.79B
Revenue surprise -0.9% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move +6.5% Event window
SPY move +0.6% Same window
Abnormal move +5.9% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.4× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +4.6% Up to 20 sessions
UNHSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, management continued to emphasize growth in Optum, value-based care, and Medicare Advantage, while the current analysis adds greater focus on AI-enabled efficiency, medical loss ratio pressure, and the pace of Change Healthcare revenue recovery.

Guidance delta

Management maintained full-year adjusted EPS guidance, while the analysis points to ongoing cyberattack costs and operating pressures as key offsets.

Key takeaways

  • Revenue growth and double-digit Optum expansion supported reaffirmed full-year adjusted EPS guidance.
  • Management described the cyberattack impact as material but manageable while Change Healthcare recovery continues.
  • AI and technology deployments were cited as sources of operating efficiency.
  • Medicaid timing, coding intensity, medical loss ratio pressure, and Medicare Advantage funding changes remain important watchpoints.

Management priorities

  • Expand Optum Health and value-based care, including home-visit programs
  • Deploy AI use cases and modernize legacy technology
  • Restore Change Healthcare performance and continue Medicare Advantage execution

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
UNH EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 10 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $5.98 Q4 '23 actual $6.16, beat Q1 '24 estimate $6.61 Q1 '24 actual $6.91, beat Q2 '24 estimate $6.65 Q2 '24 actual $6.80, beat Q3 '24 estimate $7.01 Q3 '24 actual $7.15, beat Q2 '25 estimate $4.45 Q2 '25 actual $4.08, miss Q3 '25 estimate $2.80 Q3 '25 actual $2.92, beat Q4 '25 estimate $2.10 Q4 '25 actual $2.11, match Q1 '26 estimate $6.46 Q1 '26 actual $7.23, beat Q2 '26 estimate $4.94 Q2 '26 actual $6.38, beat Q3 '26 estimate $4.14 Q3 '26 actual $4.69, beat Q4 '26 estimate $2.28 Q1 '27 estimate $8.15 Q2 '27 estimate $6.91 Q3 '27 estimate $5.30
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy52 ratings
Bullish4382.7%
Neutral713.5%
Bearish23.8%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$410.7Previous close
$327Low
$494.19Average
$650High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 27, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Mizuho Outperform OutperformMaintainOct 22, 2026
RBC Capital Outperform OutperformMaintainOct 20, 2026
JP Morgan Overweight OverweightMaintainOct 16, 2026
Bernstein Outperform OutperformMaintainOct 16, 2026
TD Cowen Hold HoldMaintainOct 15, 2026
Show 47 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $410.7. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Mizuho SecuritiesAnalyst unavailable$500$417 +21.7%Oct 22, 2026
RBC CapitalBen Hendrix$498$406.88 +21.3%Oct 20, 2026
StephensAnalyst unavailable$500$400.64 +21.7%Oct 16, 2026
BernsteinAnalyst unavailable$500$406.67 +21.7%Oct 16, 2026
Raymond JamesJohn Ransom$450$395.62 +9.6%Oct 15, 2026
See 134 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) operates as a comprehensive healthcare enterprise across the United States, structuring its diverse services into four key divisions: UnitedHealthcare, Optum Health, Optum Insight, and Optum Rx. The UnitedHealthcare segment provides a wide array of health benefit plans and consumer-focused services. These offerings cater to a broad spectrum of clients, including large national corporations, public sector employers, mid-sized and small businesses, and individual consumers. It also delivers specialized health coverage and wellness programs tailored for individuals aged 50 and older, addressing their needs for preventive and acute care, chronic disease management, and other age-specific health issues. This division further encompasses Medicaid plans, children's health insurance, dental benefits, and various hospital and clinical services. Optum Health focuses on delivering direct healthcare solutions and management services.…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2024-11-11T06:39:45.180704+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-27T06:50:41.454437+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-27T06:50:41.451702+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-27. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.