Ulta Beauty, Inc. · ULTA · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026

Ulta maintains outlook while investing in omnichannel growth

The analysis supports a constructive but conditional view: resilient demand, market-share gains, and strategic investments could support growth, but the case depends on maintaining margins while executing expansion and integration plans.

Reported After market closeNASDAQConsumer Cyclical $23.48B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $8.01 Consensus $8.10
EPS surprise -1.1% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $3.90B Consensus $3.84B
Revenue surprise +1.6% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -14.2% Event window
SPY move -0.6% Same window
Abnormal move -13.7% Stock minus SPY
Volume 5.0× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -1.7% Up to 20 sessions
ULTASPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

The current analysis shifts the focus from the prior quarter's raised guidance and holiday execution to a maintained fiscal 2026 outlook, with greater emphasis on international expansion, TikTok Shop, AI and automation, small-format stores, marketplace growth, and the Northwest distribution center.

Guidance delta

Maintained relative to the prior quarter; the analysis continues to describe a fiscal 2026 outlook for sales growth, EPS growth, and flat-to-modestly higher operating margin.

Key takeaways

  • Management highlighted fiscal 2025 sales and EPS above prior guidance and market-share gains across mass and prestige beauty.
  • The fiscal 2026 plan emphasizes international expansion, AI-enabled personalization, social commerce, and marketplace growth.
  • The main debate is whether growth investments and promotional intensity can coexist with stable-to-improving margins.

Management priorities

  • Expand international stores and integrate Space NK.
  • Build distribution capacity while scaling small-format stores and marketplace activity.
  • Use AI and automation across personalization, supply chain, order management, and guest services.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
ULTA EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 2 future estimate-only quarters. Q3 '24 estimate $4.95 Q3 '24 actual $5.07, beat Q4 '24 estimate $7.53 Q4 '24 actual $8.08, beat Q1 '25 estimate $6.24 Q1 '25 actual $6.47, beat Q2 '25 estimate $5.46 Q2 '25 actual $5.30, miss Q2 '26 estimate $5.10 Q2 '26 actual $5.78, beat Q3 '26 estimate $4.61 Q3 '26 actual $5.14, beat Q4 '26 estimate $8.10 Q4 '26 actual $8.01, miss Q1 '27 estimate $6.89 Q1 '27 actual $7.74, beat Q2 '27 estimate $6.22 Q2 '27 actual $6.55, beat Q3 '27 estimate $5.79 Q4 '27 estimate $9.12
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy46 ratings
Bullish2758.7%
Neutral1941.3%
Bearish00.0%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$541.18Current
$345Low
$586.6Average
$790High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 1, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Wells Fargo Equal Weight UnderweightUpgradeSep 15, 2026
DA Davidson Buy BuyMaintainSep 14, 2026
UBS Buy BuyMaintainAug 28, 2026
Goldman Sachs Buy BuyMaintainAug 28, 2026
Citigroup Neutral NeutralMaintainAug 28, 2026
Show 41 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $541.18. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$525$548.65 -3.0%Sep 15, 2026
BMO CapitalKelly Crago$580$549.23 +7.2%Sep 8, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$631$517.03 +16.6%Aug 28, 2026
UBSMichael Lasser$710$540.1 +31.2%Aug 28, 2026
Goldman SachsKate McShane$667$540.1 +23.2%Aug 28, 2026
See 140 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Ulta Beauty, Inc. functions as a prominent beauty product retailer throughout the United States. Its physical locations feature a broad assortment of goods, including cosmetics, perfumes, skincare, haircare items, bath and body essentials, and professional salon styling instruments. Additionally, they provide a comprehensive suite of salon services, encompassing hair, skin, makeup, brow, and nail treatments. The company further offers its proprietary label products, such as the Ulta Beauty Collection for cosmetics, skincare, and bath items, alongside other Ulta Beauty branded merchandise and gift options. As of March 10, 2022, Ulta Beauty operated 1,308 retail stores across all 50 U.S. states. Its products are also available for purchase via its website, ulta.com, and through its mobile applications. Incorporated in 1990, the enterprise was initially known as Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc., before officially changing its name to Ulta Beauty, Inc. in January 2017. Its corporate base is located in Bolingbrook, Illinois.

Historical context

All ULTA earnings

Consumer Cyclical peers this season

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Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:36:15.940040+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-01T17:26:09.484968+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-01T17:26:09.481895+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-01. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.