Ulta Beauty, Inc. · ULTA · FY2025 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2025

Ulta’s strong Q3 supports growth plans, with holiday risks in view

The current analysis supports a constructive but conditional view: strong category execution, loyalty engagement, digital initiatives and international expansion support the growth case, while holiday demand, tariff-related pricing and SG&A discipline will determine how durable that momentum is.

Reported After market closeNASDAQConsumer Cyclical $23.37B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $5.14 Consensus $4.61
EPS surprise +11.5% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $2.86B Consensus $2.71B
Revenue surprise +5.3% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move +12.7% Event window
SPY move +0.2% Same window
Abnormal move +12.5% Stock minus SPY
Volume 5.4× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +8.1% Up to 20 sessions
ULTASPY benchmark

Ask FN2 about ULTA FY2025 Q3

Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did ULTA rise 12.7% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q3?What changed in ULTA's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for ULTA after FY2025 Q3 earnings.

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

The current analysis shifts the focus from planned initiatives to execution: Q3 performance remained strong, UB Marketplace and international expansion advanced, guidance was raised, and management emphasized holiday preparation alongside cost and margin discipline.

Guidance delta

Management raised FY2025 guidance, while highlighting the need to manage SG&A and monitor holiday demand in a cautious macro environment.

Key takeaways

  • Current analysis describes Q3 as ahead of expectations, with strength across beauty categories and continued loyalty-member growth.
  • UB Marketplace, exclusive brands and international expansion remain central growth initiatives.
  • Management is balancing technology, payroll and incentive investment against cost-structure efficiency.
  • Tariff-related pricing and consumer sensitivity are important watchpoints for the holiday period.

Management priorities

  • Execute holiday merchandising, marketing and staffing plans.
  • Expand UB Marketplace and its third-party brand assortment.
  • Open additional international stores and integrate Space NK operations.
  • Improve SG&A efficiency and optimize the cost structure.
  • Continue exclusive brand launches and expand K-beauty and wellness assortments.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
ULTA EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 2 future estimate-only quarters. Q3 '24 estimate $4.95 Q3 '24 actual $5.07, beat Q4 '24 estimate $7.53 Q4 '24 actual $8.08, beat Q1 '25 estimate $6.24 Q1 '25 actual $6.47, beat Q2 '25 estimate $5.46 Q2 '25 actual $5.30, miss Q2 '26 estimate $5.10 Q2 '26 actual $5.78, beat Q3 '26 estimate $4.61 Q3 '26 actual $5.14, beat Q4 '26 estimate $8.10 Q4 '26 actual $8.01, miss Q1 '27 estimate $6.89 Q1 '27 actual $7.74, beat Q2 '27 estimate $6.22 Q2 '27 actual $6.55, beat Q3 '27 estimate $5.79 Q4 '27 estimate $9.12
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy46 ratings
Bullish2758.7%
Neutral1941.3%
Bearish00.0%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$543.69Current
$345Low
$586.6Average
$790High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 3, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Wells Fargo Equal Weight UnderweightUpgradeSep 15, 2026
DA Davidson Buy BuyMaintainSep 14, 2026
UBS Buy BuyMaintainAug 28, 2026
Goldman Sachs Buy BuyMaintainAug 28, 2026
Citigroup Neutral NeutralMaintainAug 28, 2026
Show 41 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $543.69. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$525$548.65 -3.4%Sep 15, 2026
BMO CapitalKelly Crago$580$549.23 +6.7%Sep 8, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$631$517.03 +16.1%Aug 28, 2026
UBSMichael Lasser$710$540.1 +30.6%Aug 28, 2026
Goldman SachsKate McShane$667$540.1 +22.7%Aug 28, 2026
See 140 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Ulta Beauty, Inc. functions as a prominent beauty product retailer throughout the United States. Its physical locations feature a broad assortment of goods, including cosmetics, perfumes, skincare, haircare items, bath and body essentials, and professional salon styling instruments. Additionally, they provide a comprehensive suite of salon services, encompassing hair, skin, makeup, brow, and nail treatments. The company further offers its proprietary label products, such as the Ulta Beauty Collection for cosmetics, skincare, and bath items, alongside other Ulta Beauty branded merchandise and gift options. As of March 10, 2022, Ulta Beauty operated 1,308 retail stores across all 50 U.S. states. Its products are also available for purchase via its website, ulta.com, and through its mobile applications. Incorporated in 1990, the enterprise was initially known as Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc., before officially changing its name to Ulta Beauty, Inc. in January 2017. Its corporate base is located in Bolingbrook, Illinois.

Historical context

All ULTA earnings
-4.2%FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026-4.8%FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026-4.8%FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026

Consumer Cyclical peers this season

Latest reports in the same sector
CompanyQuarterEPS surpriseMarket moveHeadline
NKE NIKE, Inc. FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q4 2026 +10.0% -0.7% Nike’s performance categories grow as resets weigh on FY27 outlook
CCL Carnival Corporation & plc FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 +5.9% +13.4% Carnival posts record Q3 as demand and efficiency offset fuel costs
DRI Darden Restaurants, Inc. FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 0.0% -3.0% Darden reaffirms FY2027 outlook as brands deliver mixed comp growth
AZO AutoZone, Inc. FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 +3.6% +3.3% AutoZone pairs commercial momentum with an aggressive FY2027 expansion plan
LEN-B Lennar Corporation FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 — — Lennar: Efficiency Gains Offset Housing-Market Pressures
LEN Lennar Corporation FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 — -4.1% Lennar Holds Volume Guidance as Margins Improve Despite Housing Headwinds

Latest beats and misses

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Missed on EPS

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:36:15.940040+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-03T02:06:06.094686+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-03T02:06:06.091697+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-03. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.