Ulta Beauty, Inc. · ULTA · FY2025 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2025

Ulta’s growth broadened, but execution risks remain

The supplied analysis supports a constructive but conditional view: broad category growth, loyalty engagement, digital initiatives, and international expansion can support continued earnings growth, while the thesis depends on sustaining second-half comparable sales and operating-margin gains.

Reported After market closeNASDAQConsumer Cyclical $24.52B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $5.78 Consensus $5.10
EPS surprise +13.3% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $2.79B Consensus $2.68B
Revenue surprise +4.1% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -7.1% Event window
SPY move -0.6% Same window
Abnormal move -6.5% Stock minus SPY
Volume 4.4× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +12.4% Up to 20 sessions
ULTASPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, the current analysis shifts the evidence from a guidance raise and strategic launches to reported Q2 execution: stronger sales and EPS, broader category momentum, and added international and marketplace initiatives. It also adds clearer execution questions around Space NK, the end of the Target partnership, and higher SG&A.

Guidance delta

Management raised FY2025 net-sales, EPS, and operating-margin expectations in the prior quarter; the current analysis does not identify a further guidance change.

Key takeaways

  • The current analysis describes a Q2 FY2025 revenue and EPS beat, with growth across fragrance, skin care, K-Beauty, and wellness.
  • Management’s growth plan combines exclusive brands, loyalty, digital personalization, an invitation-only marketplace, and international expansion.
  • The prior quarter’s guidance raise supports the growth case, while second-half comps, margin durability, and expansion execution remain the main tests.

Management priorities

  • Expand exclusive and prestige brands, wellness, and loyalty engagement
  • Roll out digital personalization, replenishment tools, and the invitation-only marketplace
  • Execute international expansion through Space NK and planned new stores

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
ULTA REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 2 future estimate-only quarters. Q3 '24 estimate $4B Q3 '24 actual $2B, miss Q4 '24 estimate $4B Q4 '24 actual $4B, beat Q1 '25 estimate $3B Q1 '25 actual $3B, match Q2 '25 estimate $3B Q2 '25 actual $3B, miss Q2 '26 estimate $3B Q2 '26 actual $3B, beat Q3 '26 estimate $3B Q3 '26 actual $3B, beat Q4 '26 estimate $4B Q4 '26 actual $4B, beat Q1 '27 estimate $3B Q1 '27 actual $3B, beat Q2 '27 estimate $3B Q2 '27 actual $3B, beat Q3 '27 estimate $3B Q4 '27 estimate $4B
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy46 ratings
Bullish2758.7%
Neutral1941.3%
Bearish00.0%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$570.37Current
$345Low
$586.6Average
$790High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 10, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Wells Fargo Equal Weight UnderweightUpgradeSep 15, 2026
DA Davidson Buy BuyMaintainSep 14, 2026
UBS Buy BuyMaintainAug 28, 2026
Goldman Sachs Buy BuyMaintainAug 28, 2026
Citigroup Neutral NeutralMaintainAug 28, 2026
Show 41 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $570.37. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$525$548.65 -8.0%Sep 15, 2026
BMO CapitalKelly Crago$580$549.23 +1.7%Sep 8, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$631$517.03 +10.6%Aug 28, 2026
UBSMichael Lasser$710$540.1 +24.5%Aug 28, 2026
Goldman SachsKate McShane$667$540.1 +16.9%Aug 28, 2026
See 140 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Ulta Beauty, Inc. functions as a prominent beauty product retailer throughout the United States. Its physical locations feature a broad assortment of goods, including cosmetics, perfumes, skincare, haircare items, bath and body essentials, and professional salon styling instruments. Additionally, they provide a comprehensive suite of salon services, encompassing hair, skin, makeup, brow, and nail treatments. The company further offers its proprietary label products, such as the Ulta Beauty Collection for cosmetics, skincare, and bath items, alongside other Ulta Beauty branded merchandise and gift options. As of March 10, 2022, Ulta Beauty operated 1,308 retail stores across all 50 U.S. states. Its products are also available for purchase via its website, ulta.com, and through its mobile applications. Incorporated in 1990, the enterprise was initially known as Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc., before officially changing its name to Ulta Beauty, Inc. in January 2017. Its corporate base is located in Bolingbrook, Illinois.

Historical context

All ULTA earnings

Consumer Cyclical peers this season

Latest reports in the same sector

Latest beats and misses

Who reports next

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-10T16:20:43.755014+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-10T16:20:43.751449+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-10. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.