Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold29 ratings
Bullish1344.8%
Neutral1655.2%
Bearish00.0%
Textron Inc. · TXT · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026
Textron raises outlook as MV-75 investment and aviation demand accelerate
The supplied analysis supports a constructive but conditional view: strong backlog, aviation demand, aftermarket growth and defense programs support the outlook, while higher capex, supply constraints and MV-75 execution risks temper confidence.
Reported Before market openNYSEIndustrials
$13.17B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$1.73
Consensus $1.70
EPS surprise
+1.8%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$4.17B
Consensus $4.04B
Revenue surprise
+3.2%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-7.9%
Event window
SPY move
-0.0%
Same window
Abnormal move
-7.9%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
4.1×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+13.6%
Up to 20 sessions
TXTSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about TXT FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did TXT fall 7.9% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in TXT's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for TXT after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Management moved from a maintained prior-quarter outlook to a raised current-quarter outlook. The MV-75 program was accelerated, 2026 capex was pulled forward, and supply-chain investment became a larger part of the plan.
Guidance delta
Management raised its outlook, with 2026 growth plans supported by higher aircraft deliveries, aftermarket demand and defense programs; 2026 capex is expected to increase materially for MV-75 and supply-chain initiatives.
Key takeaways
- 2025 revenue grew 8% to $14.8 billion, with segment profit up 14% and backlog reaching $7.7 billion.
- Management is accelerating the MV-75 program and expects LRIP deliveries to begin in 2027.
- Aviation growth is supported by higher jet deliveries, aftermarket services and new aircraft certifications.
- 2026 capex is projected at $650 million, reflecting MV-75 investment and supply-chain initiatives.
- The main debate is whether execution, margins and supply availability can keep pace with the program ramp.
Management priorities
- Advance MV-75 testing and LRIP production
- Increase aircraft deliveries and aftermarket services
- Complete certifications for Citation Ascend, CJ3 Gen 2 and M2 Gen 2
- Scale ATAC and Ship-to-Shore Connector programs
- Build supply-chain resilience through vertical integration
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$77.37Current
$68Low
$96.46Average
$110High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 28, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TD Cowen | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 13, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 4, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 4, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 7, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 2, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Freedom Broker | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 29, 2025 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 29, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Positive | Positive | Maintain | Jul 25, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 17, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 1, 2025 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 24, 2025 |
| Baird | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 23, 2025 |
| Veritas Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | May 24, 2023 |
| Alembic Global | Neutral | Overweight | Downgrade | May 1, 2023 |
| Wolfe Research | Perform | Peer Perform | Maintain | Apr 6, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Feb 14, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Aug 31, 2021 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 22, 2019 |
| Vertical Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Sep 27, 2019 |
| Wells Fargo | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 19, 2018 |
| Drexel Hamilton | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Sep 11, 2017 |
| Stephens & Co. | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Apr 13, 2017 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Dec 5, 2016 |
| Nomura | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Mar 6, 2015 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Sep 26, 2014 |
| Stifel | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Sep 26, 2014 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Sector Perform | Upgrade | Jan 7, 2013 |
| Early Bird Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 19, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $77.37. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Gavin Parsons | $95 | $89.96 | +22.8% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Kristine Liwag | $98 | $89.96 | +26.7% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Kristine Liwag | $97 | $89.5 | +25.4% | Jul 15, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $100 | $92.78 | +29.2% | May 4, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $109 | $94.08 | +40.9% | May 4, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Douglas Harned | $108 | $100.25 | +39.6% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $110 | $88.06 | +42.2% | Feb 1, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Kristine Liwag | $92 | $88.2 | +18.9% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Charles Minervino | $110 | $93.49 | +42.2% | Jan 15, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $99 | $93.86 | +28.0% | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $115 | $93.62 | +48.6% | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $94 | $89.15 | +21.5% | Jan 6, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Douglas Harned | $90 | $80.48 | +16.3% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $89 | $79.88 | +15.0% | Oct 24, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Charles Minervino | $90 | $75.6 | +16.3% | Jan 8, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Sheila Kahyaoglu | $100 | $81.77 | +29.2% | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Kristine Liwag | $95 | $83.46 | +22.8% | Aug 8, 2024 |
| UBS | Gavin Parsons | $87 | $92.62 | +12.4% | Jul 19, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $93 | $70.17 | +20.2% | Dec 15, 2022 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $84 | $65.38 | +8.6% | Jul 29, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $85 | $70.02 | +9.9% | May 2, 2022 |
| Capital One Financial | Jonathan Raviv | $68 | $64.17 | -12.1% | Apr 30, 2021 |
Track every rating change on TXT the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationTextron Inc. (TXT) is a diverse global enterprise with significant involvement in the aerospace, defense, industrial, and financial sectors. Its Textron Aviation division is responsible for the production, sale, and maintenance of a variety of aircraft, including corporate jets, turboprop and piston-engine planes, and military trainer and defense aircraft. This segment also delivers extensive maintenance, inspection, and repair services, alongside selling commercial aircraft components. The Bell segment stands as a primary provider of military and civilian helicopters, in addition to tiltrotor aircraft, supported by related spare parts and services. Textron Systems focuses on developing and supplying advanced unmanned aerial platforms, sophisticated electronic systems and solutions, specialized marine vessels, piston aircraft engines, realistic live military air-to-air and air-to-ship training systems, weaponry and associated components, and a range of armored and specialty vehicles.…
Historical context
All TXT earningsIndustrials peers this season
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| FRO Frontline Plc | FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +8.0% | +1.0% | Frontline posts a record quarter as tanker rates remain elevated |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- SNXFY2026 Q3 · September 24, 2026+20.9% EPS-9.9% move
- DRIFY2027 Q1 · September 24, 20260.0% EPS-3.0% move
- CTASFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+3.0% EPS-3.4% move
- PAYXFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+1.5% EPS-8.8% move
- GISFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+4.6% EPS+1.0% move
- AZOFY2026 Q4 · September 22, 2026+3.6% EPS+3.3% move
Get the TXT recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-28T22:01:00.882860+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-28T22:01:00.879744+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-28. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.