Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold26 ratings
Bullish1246.2%
Neutral1350.0%
Bearish13.8%
Trane Technologies plc · TT · FY2025 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2025
Trane Technologies Raises Guidance on Commercial HVAC Strength
The current analysis supports a constructive but conditional view: commercial HVAC demand, backlog, services, and connected-building initiatives strengthened, while the raised guidance provides evidence of near-term operating momentum. The thesis remains dependent on residential normalization, tariff mitigation, China and transport refrigeration recovery, and continued high-capex demand.
Reported Before market openNYSEIndustrials
$104.95B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$3.88
Consensus $3.79
EPS surprise
+2.4%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$5.75B
Consensus $5.77B
Revenue surprise
-0.5%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-8.4%
Event window
SPY move
-0.1%
Same window
Abnormal move
-8.3%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
3.0×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-1.7%
Up to 20 sessions
TTSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about TT FY2025 Q2
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did TT fall 8.4% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q2?What changed in TT's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q2?Give me the bull and bear case for TT after FY2025 Q2 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Relative to the prior quarter, management raised full-year guidance, reported stronger commercial HVAC bookings and a larger backlog, and described services growth in the low-teens range. The main offset was a temporary residential HVAC disruption from a refrigerant cylinder shortage; tariff cost estimates also declined from the prior quarter's estimate.
Guidance delta
Management raised full-year guidance to about 8% organic revenue growth and $13.05 adjusted EPS, from the prior quarter's maintained outlook of 7%-8% organic growth and $12.70-$12.90 adjusted EPS.
Key takeaways
- Americas commercial HVAC bookings grew more than 20% year over year, while Applied Solutions grew more than 60% in the quarter.
- Management cited a $7.1 billion backlog, with more than 90% in commercial HVAC, as visibility into 2026.
- Residential HVAC revenue is expected to be flat for the full year after a Q2 refrigerant cylinder shortage.
- Services growth remained in the low-teens range, supported by the applied-solutions equipment tail and connected-building initiatives.
Management priorities
- Expand Americas commercial HVAC and applied-solutions capacity in high-capex verticals.
- Accelerate services through connected solutions and digital commissioning, including BrainBox.
- Maintain pricing discipline against tariff and inflation pressures while pursuing selective bolt-on acquisitions and balanced capital allocation.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$476.98Current
$155Low
$372.71Average
$585High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 10, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernstein | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 14, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Jul 31, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 31, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 14, 2026 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | May 1, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 1, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | May 1, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jan 13, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 5, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Nov 13, 2025 |
| HSBC | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 31, 2025 |
| Baird | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 17, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 8, 2025 |
| Melius Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 28, 2025 |
| Mizuho | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 17, 2024 |
| Stephens & Co. | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Aug 5, 2024 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 1, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 12, 2023 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Feb 12, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Nov 3, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 15, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Jul 8, 2022 |
| Wolfe Research | Peer Perform | Peer Perform | Maintain | Feb 1, 2022 |
| Vertical Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 3, 2022 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $476.98. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $536 | $438.54 | +12.4% | Sep 24, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $555 | $471.95 | +16.4% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $550 | $470.76 | +15.3% | Jun 9, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Christopher Snyder | $565 | $484.6 | +18.5% | May 4, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Noah Kaye | $530 | $495.64 | +11.1% | May 1, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Brett Linzey | $475 | $495.3 | -0.4% | May 1, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $560 | $495.82 | +17.4% | May 1, 2026 |
| KeyBanc | Analyst unavailable | $555 | $492.54 | +16.4% | May 1, 2026 |
| Barclays | Julian Mitchell | $585 | $492.54 | +22.6% | May 1, 2026 |
| KeyBanc | Analyst unavailable | $525 | $477.24 | +10.1% | Apr 21, 2026 |
| BNP Paribas | Andrew Buscaglia | $550 | $472.94 | +15.3% | Apr 14, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Noah Kaye | $468 | $426.07 | -1.9% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $450 | $426.07 | -5.7% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Deane Dray | $470 | $426.07 | -1.5% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $507 | $426.07 | +6.3% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Noah Kaye | $460 | $389.53 | -3.6% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $445 | $381.7 | -6.7% | Jan 12, 2026 |
| Melius Research | Scott Davis | $490 | $381.1 | +2.7% | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Barclays | Julian Mitchell | $505 | $381.1 | +5.9% | Jan 7, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $520 | $399.28 | +9.0% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $370 | $398 | -22.4% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| KeyBanc | Analyst unavailable | $500 | $390.84 | +4.8% | Dec 15, 2025 |
| Barclays | Julian Mitchell | $506 | $409.07 | +6.1% | Dec 4, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $500 | $449.42 | +4.8% | Oct 31, 2025 |
| Barclays | Julian Mitchell | $485 | $401.28 | +1.7% | Sep 16, 2025 |
| Stephens | Analyst unavailable | $500 | $433.97 | +4.8% | Aug 4, 2025 |
| HSBC | Wesley Brooks | $460 | $431.44 | -3.6% | Jul 30, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $475 | $344.65 | -0.4% | Mar 10, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Joseph O'Dea | $380 | $379.96 | -20.3% | Jan 7, 2025 |
| HSBC | Wesley Brooks | $405 | $375.52 | -15.1% | Oct 31, 2024 |
| Stephens | Tommy Moll | $425 | $397.5 | -10.9% | Oct 16, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Timothy Wojs | $408 | $399.86 | -14.5% | Oct 14, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Chris Snyder | $425 | $342.91 | -10.9% | Sep 6, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Deane Dray | $350 | $334.28 | -26.6% | Aug 1, 2024 |
| Barclays | Julian Mitchell | $380 | $321.5 | -20.3% | Jun 4, 2024 |
| Stephens | Tommy Moll | $320 | $317.34 | -32.9% | May 1, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Brett Linzey | $325 | $312.71 | -31.9% | May 1, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Deane Dray | $330 | $313.64 | -30.8% | May 1, 2024 |
| Barclays | Julian Mitchell | $354 | $317.34 | -25.8% | May 1, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $203 | $185.73 | -57.4% | Feb 6, 2023 |
| Stephens | Analyst unavailable | $185 | $185.12 | -61.2% | Feb 6, 2023 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $177 | $185.39 | -62.9% | Feb 3, 2023 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $176 | $185.14 | -63.1% | Feb 3, 2023 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $218 | $187.08 | -54.3% | Feb 3, 2023 |
| BMO Capital | John Joyner | $180 | $168.75 | -62.3% | Dec 20, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Joshua Pokrzywinski | $155 | $138.44 | -67.5% | Jun 6, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Nicole Deblase | $184 | $167.18 | -61.4% | Feb 1, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Stephen Volkmann | $195 | $175.49 | -59.1% | Jan 24, 2022 |
| Vertical Research | Jeffrey Sprague | $214 | $194.01 | -55.1% | Jan 3, 2022 |
| UBS | Markus Mittermaier | $206 | $198.94 | -56.8% | Dec 14, 2021 |
| Stephens | Tommy Moll | $205 | $179.55 | -57.0% | Nov 4, 2021 |
| BMO Capital | Joel Tiss | $210 | $179.55 | -56.0% | Nov 4, 2021 |
| Robert W. Baird | Timothy Wojs | $200 | $177 | -58.1% | Nov 3, 2021 |
| Cowen & Co. | Gautam Khanna | $200 | $195.81 | -58.1% | Sep 1, 2021 |
| J.P. Morgan | Stephen Tusa | $160 | $191.87 | -66.5% | Aug 9, 2021 |
| Argus Research | John Eade | $220 | $193.39 | -53.9% | Aug 5, 2021 |
| Bank of America Securities | Andrew Obin | $207 | $199.35 | -56.6% | Jul 23, 2021 |
Track every rating change on TT the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationTrane Technologies plc designs, manufactures, sells, and services of solutions for heating, ventilation, air conditioning, and custom and transport refrigeration. It offers air conditioners, exchangers, and handlers; airside and terminal devices; air sourced heat pumps; chillers; coils and condensers; auxiliary power, cold storage, and condensing units; controls contracting and commissioning, decarbonization programs, and gensets; dehumidifiers; energy and water efficiency programs; energy recovery ventilators and power solutions; energy storage; furnaces; home automation; humidifiers; HVAC performance-monitoring products; and indoor air quality assessments and related products for HVAC and transport solutions.…
Historical context
All TT earningsIndustrials peers this season
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Latest beats and misses
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:55.686058+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-10T12:20:43.090189+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-10T12:20:43.087469+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-10. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.