Tesla, Inc. · TSLA · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026

Tesla Q2 2026: Revenue Beats but EPS Misses 34% as Heavy Capex and Margin Pressure Weigh

Tesla delivered record Q2 volumes and grew FSD adoption to 55% of North American deliveries, beating revenue estimates by 6.9%. However, a 34% EPS miss revealed margin compression across both automotive and energy segments, compounded by warranty true-ups, tariff-related cost changes, and rising subvention costs. The market reaction was severe with a 14.5% decline on roughly 3x baseline volume, reflecting investor concern that Tesla's massive capital expenditure cycle will continue to drain free cash flow through 2026 even as management projects confidence in its AI, robotics, and energy strategy.

Reported After market closeNASDAQConsumer Cyclical $1221.28B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $0.33 Consensus $0.50
EPS surprise -34.0% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $28.24B Consensus $26.42B
Revenue surprise +6.9% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -14.5% Event window
SPY move -1.2% Same window
Abnormal move -13.3% Stock minus SPY
Volume 3.0× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -3.3% Up to 20 sessions
TSLASPY benchmark

Ask FN2 about TSLA FY2026 Q2

Transcript, numbers and history already loaded

Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.

Transcript intelligence

What changed

Revenue of $28.24B beat the $26.42B consensus estimate by 6.9%; EPS of $0.33 missed the $0.50 estimate by 34%; Record Q2 deliveries led by Model Y, now the best-selling vehicle globally; FSD attached to 55% of North American deliveries, expanding subscription revenue; Energy storage deployments grew 53% YoY, but gross margins fell on warranty true-ups and tariff changes; Stock fell approximately 14.5% in the reaction window on roughly 3x baseline volume

Guidance delta

Guidance sentiment was maintained relative to the prior quarter. Management continues to signal increasing capital expenditure with negative free cash flow expected through 2026, consistent with the prior quarter outlook. No formal guidance revision was indicated.

Key takeaways

  • Record Q2 deliveries made Model Y the best-selling vehicle globally, driving a 6.9% revenue beat
  • EPS of $0.33 missed estimates by 34%, reflecting margin compression in automotive and energy segments
  • FSD reached 55% attach rate on North American deliveries, building recurring subscription revenue
  • Robotaxi fleet operates across seven U.S. markets with 380,000 miles of unsupervised operation and zero notable incidents
  • Energy storage deployments grew 53% YoY, but gross margins declined due to warranty true-ups and tariff-related cost changes
  • The Terafab project signals deepening semiconductor ambitions with partners including Samsung, TSMC, and SpaceX

Management priorities

  • Ramping Optimus production with a target of 10 million units per year
  • Launching and detailing the Terafab project for AI chip manufacturing
  • Expanding the robotaxi fleet into additional U.S. cities
  • Scaling Cybercab production after accumulating chassis data
  • Increasing solar panel manufacturing capacity and deploying Megapack 3

Follow TSLA with an agent that reads every filing, transcript, and price print. Free to start.

Try FN2 free

Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
TSLA EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 10 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $0.75 Q4 '23 actual $0.71, miss Q1 '24 estimate $0.51 Q1 '24 actual $0.45, miss Q2 '24 estimate $0.62 Q2 '24 actual $0.52, miss Q3 '24 estimate $0.58 Q3 '24 actual $0.72, beat Q2 '25 estimate $0.40 Q2 '25 actual $0.40, match Q3 '25 estimate $0.56 Q3 '25 actual $0.50, miss Q4 '25 estimate $0.45 Q4 '25 actual $0.50, beat Q1 '26 estimate $0.35 Q1 '26 actual $0.41, beat Q2 '26 estimate $0.50 Q2 '26 actual $0.33, miss Q3 '26 estimate $0.46 Q3 '26 actual $0.48, beat Q4 '26 estimate $0.43 Q1 '27 estimate $0.45 Q2 '27 estimate $0.55 Q3 '27 estimate $0.59
Show less

Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold81 ratings
Bullish3543.2%
Neutral3239.5%
Bearish1417.3%

1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$395.52Current
$85Low
$323.13Average
$840High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 26, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
UBS Neutral NeutralMaintainOct 22, 2026
TD Cowen Buy BuyMaintainOct 22, 2026
StoneX Buy BuyMaintainOct 22, 2026
RBC Capital Outperform OutperformMaintainOct 22, 2026
Piper Sandler Overweight OverweightMaintainOct 22, 2026
Show 77 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $395.52. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
BNP ParibasJames Picariello$420$377.75 +6.2%Oct 22, 2026
Stifel NicolausAnalyst unavailable$475$381.15 +20.1%Oct 22, 2026
Canaccord GenuityAnalyst unavailable$442$386.47 +11.8%Oct 22, 2026
CLSAAnalyst unavailable$400$386.47 +1.1%Oct 22, 2026
UBSJoseph Spak$425$386.47 +7.5%Oct 22, 2026
See 268 more

Track every rating change on TSLA the moment it posts. Free to start.

Start free

Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Tesla, Inc. operates globally, specializing in the creation, production, and distribution of electric vehicles, alongside comprehensive energy generation and storage solutions. Its market reach extends across the United States, China, and various other international regions. The company's operations are primarily divided into two main segments: its Automotive business and its Energy Generation and Storage division. Within its Automotive division, Tesla not only provides a range of electric cars but also generates revenue from selling automotive regulatory credits. This segment further encompasses a variety of post-sale services, including non-warranty vehicle support, sales of pre-owned vehicles, various retail products, and car insurance offerings. Customers can acquire Tesla's sedans and sport utility vehicles through direct sales, purchases of used vehicles, or via in-app upgrades often facilitated by the extensive Tesla Supercharger network.…

Historical context

All TSLA earnings

Consumer Cyclical peers this season

Latest reports in the same sector
CompanyQuarterEPS surpriseMarket moveHeadline
DECK Deckers Outdoor Corporation FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q4 2026 +13.4% -0.2% Deckers raises FY2027 outlook as HOKA and UGG drive growth
TSCO Tractor Supply Company FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +5.3% +6.2% Tractor Supply Q3: Pet and Digital Momentum Supports Margin Plan
PHM PulteGroup, Inc. FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 -4.5% +5.8% PulteGroup Holds Guidance as Buyer Traffic Slows

Latest beats and misses

Who reports next

Get the TSLA recap when the next report posts

One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.

Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-07-23T02:04:01.771475+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-28T01:23:15.070317+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-28T05:29:17.378739+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-28T05:29:17.375950+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-07-28. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.