Tesla, Inc. · TSLA · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026

Tesla raises investment behind AI, robotics and energy growth

Tesla's call supports a long-term growth thesis centered on autonomy, robotics, AI chips and energy storage, but the evidence remains execution-dependent. Improved automotive margins and growing FSD subscriptions are constructive, while higher capex, battery constraints, regulatory uncertainty and near-term cash-flow pressure temper confidence.

Reported After market closeNASDAQConsumer Cyclical $1501.30B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $0.41 Consensus $0.35
EPS surprise +15.9% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $22.39B Consensus $22.10B
Revenue surprise +1.3% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -3.6% Event window
SPY move -0.4% Same window
Abnormal move -3.2% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.4× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +11.8% Up to 20 sessions
TSLASPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Management outlined a larger investment program focused on AI chips, Optimus, Megapack 3 and new vehicle models. Automotive margins improved sequentially and FSD subscriptions grew, while energy storage declined sequentially despite remaining high-margin. The company also discussed research-fab and Terafab initiatives.

Guidance delta

Management guidance sentiment was maintained; no numerical guidance change was supplied in the analysis.

Key takeaways

  • Management emphasized a substantial capex increase for AI chips, Optimus, Megapack 3 and new vehicle programs.
  • Automotive margins improved sequentially and FSD subscriptions approached 1.3 million users.
  • Energy storage remained high-margin but declined sequentially, while Megapack 3 production is planned later in 2026.
  • The growth case depends on production execution, regulatory approvals and battery capacity.
  • Heavy investment supports long-term initiatives but increases near-term cash-flow pressure.

Management priorities

  • Scale Optimus production and expand the robotaxi service.
  • Develop and deploy AI5 and AI4.1 hardware.
  • Launch Megapack 3 and broaden energy-storage and solar deployments.
  • Advance FSD approvals in Europe and China.
  • Build the research-fab and Terafab initiatives with partners.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
TSLA REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $26B Q4 '23 actual $25B, miss Q1 '24 estimate $22B Q1 '24 actual $21B, miss Q2 '24 estimate $25B Q2 '24 actual $26B, beat Q3 '24 estimate $25B Q3 '24 actual $25B, miss Q2 '25 estimate $22B Q2 '25 actual $22B, beat Q3 '25 estimate $27B Q3 '25 actual $28B, beat Q4 '25 estimate $25B Q4 '25 actual $25B, beat Q1 '26 estimate $22B Q1 '26 actual $22B, beat Q2 '26 estimate $26B Q2 '26 actual $28B, beat Q3 '26 estimate $28B Q4 '26 estimate $28B Q1 '27 estimate $26B Q2 '27 estimate $29B
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold80 ratings
Bullish3442.5%
Neutral3138.8%
Bearish1518.7%

1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$379.54Current
$88Low
$324.6Average
$840High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 24, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Goldman Sachs Neutral NeutralMaintainSep 16, 2026
GLJ Research Sell SellMaintainSep 4, 2026
StoneX Buy BuyMaintainSep 3, 2026
Stifel Buy BuyMaintainAug 3, 2026
Piper Sandler Overweight OverweightMaintainJul 24, 2026
Show 76 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $379.54. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Goldman SachsAnalyst unavailable$360$356.58 -5.1%Sep 16, 2026
Morgan StanleyAndrew Percoco$840$365.44 +121.3%Sep 12, 2026
Stifel NicolausStephen Gengaro$491$311.21 +29.4%Aug 3, 2026
RBC CapitalTom Narayan$480$309.22 +26.5%Jul 28, 2026
Deutsche BankAnalyst unavailable$420$308.5 +10.7%Jul 27, 2026
See 260 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Tesla, Inc. operates globally, specializing in the creation, production, and distribution of electric vehicles, alongside comprehensive energy generation and storage solutions. Its market reach extends across the United States, China, and various other international regions. The company's operations are primarily divided into two main segments: its Automotive business and its Energy Generation and Storage division. Within its Automotive division, Tesla not only provides a range of electric cars but also generates revenue from selling automotive regulatory credits. This segment further encompasses a variety of post-sale services, including non-warranty vehicle support, sales of pre-owned vehicles, various retail products, and car insurance offerings. Customers can acquire Tesla's sedans and sport utility vehicles through direct sales, purchases of used vehicles, or via in-app upgrades often facilitated by the extensive Tesla Supercharger network.…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-24T17:30:55.215725+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-24T17:30:55.213249+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-24. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.