Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold50 ratings
Bullish2448.0%
Neutral2550.0%
Bearish12.0%
Tractor Supply Company · TSCO · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026
Tractor Supply outlines expansion after a softer Q4
Tractor Supply’s longer-term growth case rests on steady demand in consumables plus store, digital, private-brand, delivery and productivity investments. The latest call supports that framework, but the softer Q4 and identified margin, tariff and consumer risks make execution and demand quality important watchpoints.
Reported Before market openNASDAQConsumer Cyclical
$16.53B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.43
Consensus $0.46
EPS surprise
-7.0%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$3.90B
Consensus $3.99B
Revenue surprise
-2.3%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-7.6%
Event window
SPY move
-0.2%
Same window
Abnormal move
-7.4%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.7×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+1.7%
Up to 20 sessions
TSCOSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about TSCO FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did TSCO fall 7.6% after missing EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in TSCO's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for TSCO after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
The quarter added a more cautious near-term picture: Q4 demand was hurt by the lack of storm-related sales, discretionary softness and holiday promotions. At the same time, management set FY2026 growth and spending guidance and outlined a larger store, delivery and direct-sales investment program.
Guidance delta
Management introduced FY2026 guidance of 4–6% sales growth, EPS of $2.13–$2.23 and capital spending of $675–$725 million; the analysis characterizes the outlook as maintained.
Key takeaways
- FY2025 sales rose 4.3%, while Q4 missed expectations amid a quiet storm season, softer discretionary demand and a promotional holiday environment.
- Management expects FY2026 growth from new stores, digital and private-brand expansion, final-mile delivery, direct sales and AI initiatives.
- The central tension is planned margin expansion and investment against tariff, commodity, weather and consumer-spending risks.
Management priorities
- Open about 100 new stores and expand final-mile delivery to more than 150 additional hubs.
- Double direct-sales specialists to about 100 by year-end and broaden private-brand and pet offerings.
- Continue AI initiatives for forecasting, inventory and productivity, including the OpenAI collaboration.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$31.27Current
$28Low
$99.82Average
$315High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 30, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Telsey Advisory Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Guggenheim | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Baird | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 17, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 15, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 7, 2026 |
| DA Davidson | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 22, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jun 16, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 23, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Apr 22, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Stephens & Co. | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jan 22, 2026 |
| Gordon Haskett | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Loop Capital | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 25, 2025 |
| B of A Securities | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Jan 16, 2025 |
| Benchmark | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 28, 2024 |
| Wedbush | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 25, 2024 |
| Oppenheimer | Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Oct 13, 2023 |
| Cowen & Co. | Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Feb 16, 2023 |
| MKM Partners | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 19, 2023 |
| Exane BNP Paribas | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Jan 12, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Dec 20, 2022 |
| Northcoast Research | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jul 1, 2021 |
| Nomura Instinet | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 27, 2020 |
| Nomura | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 27, 2020 |
| Northcoast | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Oct 2, 2019 |
| Piper Jaffray | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 16, 2019 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Dec 13, 2018 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Sector Perform | Upgrade | Oct 26, 2018 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Underperform | Upgrade | Oct 26, 2018 |
| PiperJaffray | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 27, 2018 |
| Argus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | May 5, 2018 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Feb 27, 2018 |
| Moffett Nathanson | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Dec 4, 2017 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Sep 27, 2017 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 3, 2017 |
| BTIG Research | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Sep 8, 2016 |
| BTIG | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Sep 8, 2016 |
| William Blair | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jul 24, 2014 |
| Avondale Partners | Outperform | Market Outperform | Maintain | May 17, 2013 |
| Feltl & Co. | Hold | Strong Buy | Downgrade | Mar 7, 2013 |
| Bank oferica | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 3, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $31.27. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argus Research | Analyst unavailable | $41 | $32.23 | +31.1% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Telsey Advisory | Joseph Feldman | $38 | $30.12 | +21.5% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $28 | $30.13 | -10.5% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Simeon Gutman | $35 | $30.32 | +11.9% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $31 | $30.32 | -0.9% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Guggenheim | Analyst unavailable | $40 | $30.32 | +27.9% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Kate McShane | $38 | $30.32 | +21.5% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $38 | $30.51 | +21.5% | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Bobby Griffin | $40 | $31.01 | +27.9% | Jul 17, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Analyst unavailable | $34 | $30.17 | +8.7% | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $35 | $30.55 | +11.9% | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Telsey Advisory | Analyst unavailable | $40 | $30.16 | +27.9% | Jul 14, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $33 | $30.03 | +5.5% | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $35 | $30.43 | +11.9% | Jul 13, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $32 | $29.58 | +2.3% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Oliver Wintermantel | $40 | $30.61 | +27.9% | Jul 7, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Michael Baker | $40 | $29.86 | +27.9% | Jun 22, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $32 | $30.88 | +2.3% | Jun 16, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $32 | $30.88 | +2.3% | Jun 16, 2026 |
| Guggenheim | Steven Forbes | $50 | $29.37 | +59.9% | Jun 5, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Peter Keith | $36 | $32.31 | +15.1% | May 5, 2026 |
| Guggenheim | Steven Forbes | $60 | $38.96 | +91.9% | Apr 23, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Jonathan Matuszewski | $51 | $39.26 | +63.1% | Apr 21, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $44 | $39.28 | +40.7% | Apr 21, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $44.63 | +91.9% | Apr 17, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Zachary Fadem | $55 | $45.44 | +75.9% | Apr 14, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $51.58 | +75.9% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| D.A. Davidson | Michael Baker | $60 | $50.05 | +91.9% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $59 | $50.96 | +88.7% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $58 | $50.96 | +85.5% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $59 | $50.96 | +88.7% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Spencer Hanus | $57 | $50.96 | +82.3% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Telsey Advisory | Joseph Feldman | $63 | $50.96 | +101.5% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Oliver Wintermantel | $60 | $50.96 | +91.9% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Stephens | Jeff Lick | $53 | $54.11 | +69.5% | Jan 22, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $57 | $50.73 | +82.3% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Scot Ciccarelli | $55 | $50.73 | +75.9% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Gordon Haskett Capital Corporation | Analyst unavailable | $50 | $49.89 | +59.9% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Jonathan Matuszewski | $64 | $52.92 | +104.7% | Nov 24, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Oliver Wintermantel | $65 | $53.29 | +107.9% | Nov 5, 2025 |
| D.A. Davidson | Michael Baker | $70 | $56.35 | +123.9% | Oct 24, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | Peter Benedict | $67 | $57.52 | +114.3% | Oct 24, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $65 | $56.35 | +107.9% | Oct 24, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Simeon Gutman | $60 | $57.52 | +91.9% | Oct 24, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $65 | $56.32 | +107.9% | Oct 23, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | Spencer Hanus | $70 | $59.1 | +123.9% | Sep 17, 2025 |
| Telsey Advisory | Joseph Feldman | $70 | $59.33 | +123.9% | Jul 25, 2025 |
| UBS | Michael Lasser | $61 | $59.33 | +95.1% | Jul 25, 2025 |
| Telsey Advisory | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $49.92 | +91.9% | Apr 25, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $54 | $49.92 | +72.7% | Apr 25, 2025 |
| Guggenheim | Analyst unavailable | $55 | $49.92 | +75.9% | Apr 25, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | Peter Benedict | $315 | $274.29 | +907.4% | Oct 24, 2024 |
| D.A. Davidson | Michael Baker | $300 | $297.62 | +859.4% | Oct 21, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Peter Benedict | $320 | $302.8 | +923.3% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| Telsey Advisory | Joseph Feldman | $335 | $302.8 | +971.3% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Peter Keith | $332 | $303.37 | +961.7% | Oct 14, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Scot Ciccarelli | $325 | $303.37 | +939.3% | Oct 14, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Oliver Wintermantel | $300 | $294.29 | +859.4% | Oct 3, 2024 |
| Melius Research | Karen Short | $315 | $275.88 | +907.4% | Sep 23, 2024 |
| Wedbush | Seth Basham | $270 | $264.47 | +763.4% | Jul 26, 2024 |
| Telsey Advisory | Joseph Feldman | $300 | $262.52 | +859.4% | Jul 26, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Jonathan Matuszewski | $260 | $257.44 | +731.5% | Jul 25, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Peter Keith | $300 | $275.47 | +859.4% | Apr 29, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Oliver Wintermantel | $275 | $253.38 | +779.4% | Apr 23, 2024 |
| Telsey Advisory | Joseph Feldman | $275 | $247.35 | +779.4% | Apr 19, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Scot Ciccarelli | $277 | $258.24 | +785.8% | Apr 2, 2024 |
| Telsey Advisory | Joseph Feldman | $245 | $197.14 | +683.5% | Oct 20, 2023 |
| Raymond James | Bobby Griffin | $235 | $204.84 | +651.5% | Oct 10, 2023 |
| Truist Financial | Scot Ciccarelli | $235 | $205.17 | +651.5% | Oct 5, 2023 |
| Telsey Advisory | Joseph Feldman | $250 | $202.65 | +699.5% | Jul 15, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Scot Ciccarelli | $266 | $195.3 | +750.7% | Jun 13, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $220 | $205.35 | +603.5% | Apr 25, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $250 | $212.61 | +699.5% | Apr 22, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $261 | $219.18 | +734.7% | Apr 22, 2022 |
| Robert W. Baird | Peter Benedict | $250 | $219.18 | +699.5% | Apr 21, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Steven Zaccone | $240 | $214.84 | +667.5% | Jan 30, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Simeon Gutman | $235 | $220.48 | +651.5% | Jan 18, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Scot Ciccarelli | $270 | $227.93 | +763.4% | Jan 12, 2022 |
| Argus Research | Taylor Conrad | $255 | $235.71 | +715.5% | Dec 30, 2021 |
| D.A. Davidson | Michael Baker | $232 | $235.71 | +641.9% | Dec 30, 2021 |
| Gordon Haskett Capital Corporation | Charles Grom | $240 | $217.2 | +667.5% | Nov 11, 2021 |
| Raymond James | Bobby Griffin | $245 | $206.85 | +683.5% | Oct 22, 2021 |
| Stephens | Daniel Imbro | $241 | $206.85 | +670.7% | Oct 22, 2021 |
| UBS | Michael Lasser | $220 | $206.85 | +603.5% | Oct 22, 2021 |
| Goldman Sachs | Kate McShane | $241 | $206.85 | +670.7% | Oct 22, 2021 |
| Barclays | Karen Short | $215 | $206.85 | +587.6% | Oct 22, 2021 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Anthony Chukumba | $215 | $206.85 | +587.6% | Oct 22, 2021 |
| Guggenheim | Steven Forbes | $230 | $206.85 | +635.5% | Oct 22, 2021 |
| Northcoast Research | Chuck Cerankosky | $220 | $186.12 | +603.5% | Jul 1, 2021 |
| Wedbush | Seth Basham | $190 | $187.11 | +507.6% | Apr 23, 2021 |
Track every rating change on TSCO the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationTractor Supply Company functions as a prominent retailer, catering to the rural lifestyle demographic throughout the United States. Its extensive product catalog encompasses items crucial for the health, well-being, development, and enclosure of equine, livestock, pets, and small animals. Additionally, it stocks a variety of hardware, truck, towing, and tool supplies. Shoppers can also find seasonal goods like heating solutions, gardening equipment, power tools, novelty gifts, and children's toys, alongside workwear, casual apparel, footwear, and essential maintenance products designed for agricultural and general rural applications.…
Historical context
All TSCO earningsConsumer Cyclical peers this season
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| TCOM Trip.com Group Limited | FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +22.3% | +3.0% | Trip.com pairs international growth with heavier AI investment |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- CCLFY2026 Q3 · September 29, 2026+5.9% EPS+13.4% move
- COSTFY2026 Q4 · September 24, 2026+3.2% EPS+2.9% move
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- DRIFY2027 Q1 · September 24, 20260.0% EPS-3.0% move
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- PAYXFY2027 Q1 · September 23, 2026+1.5% EPS-8.8% move
Get the TSCO recap when the next report posts
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-30T13:16:12.517013+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-30T13:16:12.514221+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-30. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.