Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy34 ratings
Bullish2882.4%
Neutral617.6%
Bearish00.0%
Targa Resources Corp. · TRGP · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026
Targa Keeps Growth Plan Intact as Capex Rises
The current analysis supports a constructive operating-growth case for Targa: record 2025 EBITDA, double-digit Permian volume growth, and new infrastructure provide evidence of resilient demand. The counterweight is that the thesis depends on executing a larger capital program and converting planned capacity into cash flow after 2027.
Reported Before market openNYSEEnergy
$58.02B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$2.51
Consensus $2.30
EPS surprise
+9.1%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$4.06B
Consensus $4.73B
Revenue surprise
-14.3%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-1.5%
Event window
SPY move
-0.3%
Same window
Abnormal move
-1.3%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.8×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+6.9%
Up to 20 sessions
TRGPSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about TRGP FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did TRGP fall 1.5% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in TRGP's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for TRGP after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Relative to the prior analysis, the growth framework and guidance stance were maintained, but the capital program expanded to about $2.5 billion annually. New detail included Yet II, a 13th fractionator, additional Permian plants, and expectations for 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $5.4-$5.6 billion.
Guidance delta
Maintained overall; management pointed to 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $5.4-$5.6 billion while increasing annual capital spending to about $2.5 billion.
Key takeaways
- 2025 adjusted EBITDA reached $4.96 billion, up 20% year over year, with Permian volumes up 11%.
- Management expects low-double-digit Permian volume growth in 2026 and highlighted new processing, fractionation, and residue-gas capacity.
- The expanded capital program raises the execution burden before the expected post-2027 cash-flow inflection.
- The balance sheet was described as strong, with leverage around 3.5x and $1.9 billion of liquidity.
Management priorities
- Expand Permian gathering and processing capacity.
- Advance Speedway, LPG export, fractionation, and residue-gas projects.
- Commission new processing plants and the 13th fractionator.
- Maintain capital returns while funding the larger project pipeline.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$270.31Previous close
$45Low
$226.82Average
$359High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 1, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 21, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Sep 18, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 16, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 11, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Outperform | Sector Outperform | Maintain | Sep 10, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 2, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 27, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 18, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 7, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Seaport Global | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | May 4, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 20, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 24, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 24, 2026 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 20, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Nov 6, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Maintain | Apr 21, 2023 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 18, 2022 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | In Line | Upgrade | Nov 15, 2021 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Nov 10, 2021 |
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Peer Perform | Upgrade | Apr 14, 2021 |
| Piper Sandler | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 9, 2020 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 13, 2020 |
| Baird | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Mar 9, 2020 |
| Piper Jaffray | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Nov 19, 2019 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 11, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Oct 25, 2018 |
| Guggenheim | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Aug 15, 2017 |
| Capital One Financial | Overweight | Equal Weight | Upgrade | May 2, 2016 |
| Capital One | Overweight | Equal Weight | Upgrade | May 2, 2016 |
| Wunderlich Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 18, 2015 |
| Wunderlich | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 18, 2015 |
| Tudor Pickering | Buy | Accumulate | Maintain | Oct 14, 2014 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 15, 2013 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $270.31. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $345 | $292.19 | +27.6% | Sep 21, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $359 | $285.64 | +32.8% | Sep 16, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Gabriel Moreen | $320 | $289.22 | +18.4% | Sep 11, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Brandon Bingham | $314 | $292.36 | +16.2% | Sep 10, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Praneeth Satish | $324 | $296.06 | +19.9% | Sep 2, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Elvira Scotto | $338 | $291.12 | +25.0% | Aug 27, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Robert Kad | $343 | $295.96 | +26.9% | Aug 18, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Julien Dumoulin-Smith | $345 | $277.94 | +27.6% | Aug 18, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $312 | $266.21 | +15.4% | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $335 | $261.18 | +23.9% | Aug 7, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $324 | $268.23 | +19.9% | Aug 7, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $284 | $268.23 | +5.1% | Aug 7, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Analyst unavailable | $335 | $268.23 | +23.9% | Aug 7, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $333 | $279.69 | +23.2% | Jul 21, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $310 | $282.35 | +14.7% | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Barclays | Theresa Chen | $282 | $273.35 | +4.3% | Jul 13, 2026 |
| UBS | Manav Gupta | $318 | $277.58 | +17.6% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $270 | $264.51 | -0.1% | Jun 23, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Julien Dumoulin-Smith | $314 | $260.74 | +16.2% | Jun 18, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Gabriel Moreen | $300 | $269.89 | +11.0% | May 27, 2026 |
| Barclays | Theresa Chen | $262 | $263.29 | -3.1% | May 14, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $281 | $253.72 | +4.0% | May 12, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $331 | $254.27 | +22.5% | May 12, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $257 | $253.18 | -4.9% | May 12, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $289 | $253.18 | +6.9% | May 12, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $268 | $252.44 | -0.9% | May 8, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $270 | $252.44 | -0.1% | May 8, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | John Mackay | $268 | $235.5 | -0.9% | Apr 20, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $249 | $243.75 | -7.9% | Apr 13, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Holly Stewart | $246 | $229.47 | -9.0% | Feb 24, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $242 | $231.35 | -10.5% | Feb 20, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Ameet Thakkar | $241 | $227.92 | -10.8% | Feb 20, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Selman Akyol | $243 | $224.16 | -10.1% | Feb 20, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $226 | $224.16 | -16.4% | Feb 20, 2026 |
| Seaport Global | Analyst unavailable | $231 | $228.58 | -14.5% | Feb 18, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $266 | $199.96 | -1.6% | Jan 28, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $224 | $182.73 | -17.1% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | John Mackey | $196 | $176.86 | -27.5% | Jan 12, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $207 | $182.37 | -23.4% | Dec 18, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $199 | $179.92 | -26.4% | Dec 17, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Elvira Scotto | $218 | $174.47 | -19.4% | Dec 3, 2025 |
| UBS | Manav Gupta | $228 | $173.39 | -15.7% | Dec 2, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $213 | $170.72 | -21.2% | Nov 6, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $207 | $166.96 | -23.4% | Aug 29, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Elvira Scotto | $205 | $175.01 | -24.2% | Jun 26, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Brandon Bingham | $193 | $161.93 | -28.6% | May 20, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Gabriel Moreen | $212 | $161.93 | -21.6% | May 20, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $244 | $196.6 | -9.7% | Mar 17, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $210 | $181.98 | -22.3% | Mar 6, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Selman Akyol | $224 | $135.69 | -17.1% | Nov 19, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Neal Dingmann | $225 | $193.48 | -16.8% | Nov 15, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Gabriel Moreen | $181 | $161.71 | -33.0% | Oct 22, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Jean Ann Salisbury | $182 | $162.63 | -32.7% | Oct 17, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Elvira Scotto | $172 | $162.02 | -36.4% | Oct 16, 2024 |
| Barclays | Theresa Chen | $155 | $153.24 | -42.7% | Oct 3, 2024 |
| Seaport Global | Sunil Sibal | $141 | $134.14 | -47.8% | Jul 30, 2024 |
| Scotiabank | Tristan Richardson | $142 | $136.22 | -47.5% | Jul 17, 2024 |
| Argus Research | John Staszak | $140 | $129.83 | -48.2% | Jun 26, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Neal Dingmann | $125 | $118 | -53.8% | Jun 7, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Elvira Scotto | $128 | $115.58 | -52.6% | May 16, 2024 |
| Barclays | Christine Cho | $122 | $114.41 | -54.9% | Apr 9, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Gabriel Moreen | $130 | $113.29 | -51.9% | Apr 3, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Neal Dingmann | $120 | $109.11 | -55.6% | Mar 19, 2024 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $106 | $71.11 | -60.8% | Dec 15, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $95 | $68.27 | -64.9% | Dec 9, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $90 | $72.98 | -66.7% | Nov 29, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $91 | $66.2 | -66.3% | Aug 9, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $105 | $63.18 | -61.2% | Jul 20, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $87 | $62.64 | -67.8% | Jul 20, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $100 | $58.93 | -63.0% | Jul 12, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $78 | $72.37 | -71.1% | May 2, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $86 | $74.27 | -68.2% | Apr 28, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $103 | $73.22 | -61.9% | Apr 26, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $92 | $79.62 | -66.0% | Apr 20, 2022 |
| Wolfe Research | Keith Stanley | $71 | $61.06 | -73.7% | Feb 4, 2022 |
| UBS | Shneur Gershuni | $72 | $57.01 | -73.4% | Jan 26, 2022 |
| Barclays | Theresa Chen | $72 | $55.22 | -73.4% | Jan 20, 2022 |
| Bank of America Securities | Chase Mulvehill | $72 | $57.08 | -73.4% | Jan 18, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Timm Schneider | $67 | $54.24 | -75.2% | Jan 10, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Robert Kad | $74 | $55.57 | -72.6% | Jan 7, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Pearce Hammond | $46 | $44.01 | -83.0% | Aug 25, 2021 |
| Neuberger Berman | Mirek Zak | $45 | $37.84 | -83.4% | May 7, 2021 |
Track every rating change on TRGP the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationTarga Resources Corp., alongside its subsidiary Targa Resources Partners LP, is a significant entity in the North American midstream energy sector, focusing on the ownership, operation, acquisition, and development of crucial energy infrastructure assets. Its business is structured into two main divisions: "Gathering and Processing" and "Logistics and Transportation." Within these segments, the company undertakes a broad range of activities, including the collection, compression, treatment, processing, transport, and sale of natural gas. It also manages the storage, fractionation, treatment, transportation, and distribution of natural gas liquids (NGLs) and their associated products, providing services even to liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) exporters. Furthermore, Targa handles the gathering, storage, terminaling, purchasing, and selling of crude oil.…
Historical context
All TRGP earningsLatest beats and misses
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Get the TRGP recap when the next report posts
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-01T08:06:14.693393+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-01T08:06:14.690552+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-01. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.