Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold5 ratings
Bullish360.0%
Neutral120.0%
Bearish120.0%
Texas Pacific Land Corporation · TPL · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026
TPL Q2: Royalty growth meets expanding compute ambitions
TPL's Q2 supports a growth thesis built on resilient royalty production and emerging desalination, water-reuse and compute-infrastructure opportunities, but commercial timing remains uncertain.
Reported After market closeNYSEEnergy
$25.30B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$2.23
Consensus $2.18
EPS surprise
+2.3%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$246.1M
Consensus $249.5M
Revenue surprise
-1.4%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-6.9%
Event window
SPY move
-0.2%
Same window
Abnormal move
-6.7%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.9×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+3.1%
Up to 20 sessions
TPLSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about TPL FY2026 Q2
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did TPL fall 6.9% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q2?What changed in TPL's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q2?Give me the bull and bear case for TPL after FY2026 Q2 earnings.
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Transcript intelligence
What changed
The quarter added operational and strategic detail to TPL's diversification efforts: the Orla Phase 2b desalination facility was commissioned, the company acquired more than 10,000 acres in Shackelford and Jones counties, and management described advanced discussions around power and compute projects.
Guidance delta
FY 2026 capital-expenditure guidance was maintained at $65 million to $75 million.
Key takeaways
- Record Q2 revenue, net income and free cash flow reflected higher royalty production and strong water volumes.
- Management identified desalination and data-center water reuse as emerging growth avenues.
- TPL is expanding beyond its legacy Permian footprint through land and water acquisitions in West Texas.
- Capital allocation currently emphasizes strategic land, water and power investments over buybacks.
Management priorities
- Ramp the Orla Phase 2b desalination plant toward its 10,000-barrel-per-day capacity.
- Pursue power and compute projects, including colocation cooling and waste-heat capture.
- Continue land and water acquisitions supporting data-center and power-generation expansion.
- Build a team to commercialize produced water for non-potable and chip-cooling uses.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$361.56Current
$350Low
$494.5Average
$639High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 22, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keybanc | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Feb 23, 2026 |
| BWS Financial | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 12, 2024 |
| Stifel | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jan 23, 2024 |
| Credit Suisse | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Sep 29, 2021 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 31, 2020 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $361.56. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KeyBanc | Analyst unavailable | $639 | $517.36 | +76.7% | Feb 23, 2026 |
| KeyBanc | Tim Rezvan | $350 | $284.58 | -3.2% | Dec 1, 2025 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationTexas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) operates in two core business segments: land and resource management, and water services. Its Land and Resource Management division oversees a vast land portfolio, spanning nearly 880,000 acres. This segment also holds significant oil and gas royalty interests. These include perpetual non-participating royalty interests (NPRIs) covering approximately 85,000 acres (at a 1/128th rate) and about 371,000 acres (at a 1/16th rate). Furthermore, it possesses around 4,000 additional net royalty acres, primarily located in West Texas.…
Historical context
All TPL earningsLatest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- FPSFY2026 Q4 · September 15, 2026+4.3% EPS+9.5% move
- TCOMFY2026 Q2 · September 15, 2026+22.3% EPS+3.0% move
- KRFY2026 Q2 · September 11, 2026+2.8% EPS+2.7% move
- ADBEFY2026 Q3 · September 10, 2026+0.8% EPS+1.4% move
- ORCLFY2027 Q1 · September 10, 2026+10.3% EPS-1.7% move
- CASYFY2027 Q1 · September 8, 2026+8.7% EPS-14.2% move
Get the TPL recap when the next report posts
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-08-06T19:25:25.095686+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-09-10T01:23:13.706414+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-22T12:20:54.859906+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-22T12:20:54.857158+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-22. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.