Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy44 ratings
Bullish2352.3%
Neutral1943.2%
Bearish24.5%
1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.
Toll Brothers, Inc. · TOL · FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026
Toll Brothers: Luxury demand supports Q3 margin and outlook
The current analysis supports a cautiously constructive view of Toll Brothers' near-term operating trajectory: resilient luxury move-up demand, pricing and margin performance support the outlook, while rates, consumer confidence, land costs and regional weakness remain important tests.
Reported After market closeNYSEConsumer Cyclical
$12.45B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$2.97
Consensus $2.93
EPS surprise
+1.4%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$2.66B
Consensus $2.62B
Revenue surprise
+1.5%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
+4.0%
Event window
SPY move
+0.2%
Same window
Abnormal move
+3.8%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.4×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-9.6%
Up to 20 sessions
TOLSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about TOL FY2026 Q3
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did TOL rise 4.0% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q3?What changed in TOL's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for TOL after FY2026 Q3 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior quarter, management increased the 2026 share-repurchase target to $700 million from $650 million, raised the average-price outlook, and continued to emphasize 8–10% community-count growth. The luxury move-up segment remained the key growth and margin driver, while analysts focused on margin conservatism, mix, land supply and Buffington integration.
Guidance delta
Management raised the full-year average home-price outlook and increased the 2026 share-repurchase target to $700 million from $650 million; community-count growth remains targeted at 8–10%.
Key takeaways
- Q3 results beat top- and bottom-line guidance, with adjusted gross margin above guidance.
- Luxury move-up buyers remained the main revenue and margin driver.
- Average delivered price rose to $996,000, supporting a higher full-year price outlook.
- Management expects 8–10% community-count growth and highlighted balance-sheet strength.
- Geographic and macro risks remain, including mortgage rates, consumer confidence, and weaker markets.
Management priorities
- Expand to 480–490 selling communities by year-end.
- Continue disciplined, capital-efficient land acquisition.
- Integrate the Buffington acquisition and pursue aligned bolt-on acquisitions.
- Maintain capital returns through share repurchases and dividends.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$134.4Current
$50Low
$138.19Average
$198High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 21, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 28, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 21, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Barclays | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Jul 14, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jun 11, 2026 |
| Seaport Global | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 7, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Feb 23, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Citizens | Market Outperform | Market Outperform | Maintain | Feb 18, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 13, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 10, 2025 |
| Wedbush | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 5, 2025 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 5, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Maintain | Aug 25, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Peer Perform | Upgrade | Jan 8, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 24, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 23, 2023 |
| Keybanc | Underweight | Upgrade | Sep 19, 2022 | |
| BTIG | Neutral | Sell | Upgrade | Jun 28, 2021 |
| Susquehanna | Neutral | Positive | Downgrade | Oct 14, 2019 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Aug 13, 2019 |
| Mizuho | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 23, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 18, 2018 |
| Maxim Group | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 23, 2018 |
| Argus | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 5, 2018 |
| BTIG Research | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Feb 8, 2017 |
| Keefe Bruyette & Woods | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Aug 24, 2016 |
| Buckingham Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 24, 2016 |
| Zelman | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 20, 2016 |
| JMP Securities | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jan 25, 2016 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Equal Weight | Upgrade | Oct 13, 2015 |
| Sterne Agee CRT | Neutral | Underperform | Upgrade | May 18, 2015 |
| Sterne Agee | Neutral | Underperform | Upgrade | May 18, 2015 |
| Compass Point | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Feb 26, 2014 |
| MKM Partners | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jun 4, 2013 |
| ISI Group | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jan 7, 2013 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Sell | Upgrade | Jan 3, 2013 |
| Stifel | Hold | Sell | Upgrade | Jan 3, 2013 |
| Topeka | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Dec 7, 2012 |
| Williams Capital | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Dec 5, 2012 |
| FBN Securities | Underperform | Sector Perform | Downgrade | Jul 6, 2012 |
| Williams Financial | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Mar 12, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $134.4. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $191 | $148.58 | +42.1% | Aug 20, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $195 | $148.58 | +45.1% | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Barclays | Matthew Bouley | $122 | $148.15 | -9.2% | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Analyst unavailable | $170 | $138.88 | +26.5% | Jun 2, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $187 | $132.86 | +39.1% | May 21, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $158 | $132.82 | +17.6% | May 21, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $185 | $132.63 | +37.6% | May 21, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Jonathan Bettenhausen | $170 | $139.47 | +26.5% | Apr 16, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Jonathan Bettenhausen | $190 | $153.66 | +41.4% | Mar 3, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Mike Dahl | $161 | $160.42 | +19.8% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| UBS | John Lovallo | $198 | $161.93 | +47.3% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $174 | $161.94 | +29.5% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $180 | $160 | +33.9% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Sam Reid | $185 | $160 | +37.6% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $177 | $157.08 | +31.7% | Feb 10, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Sam Reid | $170 | $148.81 | +26.5% | Jan 14, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $156 | $146.93 | +16.1% | Jan 13, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Susan Maklari | $140 | $138.55 | +4.2% | Dec 10, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Mike Dahl | $144 | $135.21 | +7.1% | Dec 10, 2025 |
| Barclays | Matthew Bouley | $110 | $132.9 | -18.2% | Dec 10, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $181 | $132.9 | +34.7% | Dec 10, 2025 |
| UBS | John Lovallo | $183 | $134.45 | +36.2% | Dec 9, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $161 | $142.71 | +19.8% | Dec 4, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $160 | $140.74 | +19.0% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| Oppenheimer | Tyler Batory | $155 | $106.38 | +15.3% | May 15, 2025 |
| Wedbush | Jay McCanless | $175 | $149.02 | +30.2% | Oct 25, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Mike Dahl | $143 | $141.03 | +6.4% | Aug 22, 2024 |
| Barclays | Matthew Bouley | $116 | $133.86 | -13.7% | Aug 20, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Stephen Kim | $180 | $123.15 | +33.9% | Jul 15, 2024 |
| Needham | Ryan MacDonald | $77 | $119.24 | -42.7% | Jun 17, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Susan Maklari | $124 | $119.32 | -7.7% | Jun 17, 2024 |
| Argus Research | Chris Graja | $140 | $120.25 | +4.2% | Jun 6, 2024 |
| Barclays | Matthew Bouley | $118 | $122.91 | -12.2% | May 28, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Truman Patterson | $135 | $119.56 | +0.4% | May 23, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Mike Dahl | $300 | $120.55 | +123.2% | May 23, 2024 |
| UBS | John Lovallo | $154 | $119.2 | +14.6% | May 22, 2024 |
| UBS | John Lovallo | $140 | $120.21 | +4.2% | May 22, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Deepa Raghavan | $150 | $127.38 | +11.6% | May 15, 2024 |
| Oppenheimer | Tyler Batory | $157 | $126.53 | +16.8% | Mar 21, 2024 |
| Raymond James | Buck Home | $120 | $102.36 | -10.7% | Feb 20, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Truman Patterson | $118 | $102.16 | -12.2% | Jan 8, 2024 |
| Wedbush | Jay McCanless | $82 | $86.88 | -39.0% | Dec 5, 2023 |
| Raymond James | Buck Horne | $100 | $75.93 | -25.6% | Aug 22, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Dan Oppenheim | $73 | $67.38 | -45.7% | May 31, 2023 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $49 | $49.5 | -63.5% | Dec 8, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $50 | $49.5 | -62.8% | Dec 8, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Analyst unavailable | $58 | $45.6 | -56.8% | Nov 22, 2022 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $59 | $44.38 | -56.1% | Jun 16, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Daniel Oppenheim | $63 | $45.8 | -53.1% | Apr 8, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Deepa Raghavan | $82 | $71.6 | -39.0% | Dec 13, 2021 |
| Janney Montgomery | Tyler Batory | $91 | $72.23 | -32.3% | Dec 9, 2021 |
| Goldman Sachs | Susan Maklari | $60 | $72.23 | -55.4% | Dec 9, 2021 |
| Wedbush | Jay McCanless | $73 | $72.23 | -45.7% | Dec 9, 2021 |
Track every rating change on TOL the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationToll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) stands as a prominent luxury homebuilder operating across the United States. The company, along with its various divisions, specializes in the design, construction, marketing, sale, and financing of upscale detached and attached residences within master-planned communities. Its operations are structured into two main divisions: Traditional Home Building and City Living. The latter specifically focuses on developing, constructing, and selling condominiums. Beyond its core homebuilding activities, Toll Brothers diversifies its portfolio by developing and managing golf courses and country clubs, acquiring and divesting land, and constructing, operating, and leasing apartment complexes.…
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Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- FPSFY2026 Q4 · September 15, 2026+4.3% EPS+9.5% move
- TCOMFY2026 Q2 · September 15, 2026+22.3% EPS+3.0% move
- KRFY2026 Q2 · September 11, 2026+2.8% EPS+2.7% move
- ADBEFY2026 Q3 · September 10, 2026+0.8% EPS+1.4% move
- ORCLFY2027 Q1 · September 10, 2026+10.3% EPS-1.7% move
- CASYFY2027 Q1 · September 8, 2026+8.7% EPS-14.2% move
Get the TOL recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-08-19T18:18:25.994894+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-09-21T01:23:13.071796+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-21T12:30:48.538924+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-21T12:30:48.536673+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.