Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy44 ratings
Bullish2352.3%
Neutral1943.2%
Bearish24.5%
1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.
Toll Brothers, Inc. · TOL · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q4 2025
Toll Brothers balances luxury demand with conservative fiscal 2026 outlook
The supplied analysis supports a balanced view: resilient luxury demand, demographic support, housing undersupply, and the spec-home strategy provide a foundation for growth, but conservative fiscal 2026 guidance, expected margin moderation, affordability pressure, and land-cost risk limit the strength of the case.
Reported After market closeNYSEConsumer Cyclical
$12.65B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$4.58
Consensus $4.88
EPS surprise
-6.1%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$3.42B
Consensus $3.30B
Revenue surprise
+3.7%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-2.4%
Event window
SPY move
-0.1%
Same window
Abnormal move
-2.3%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.9×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+1.9%
Up to 20 sessions
TOLSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about TOL FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did TOL fall 2.4% after missing EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in TOL's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for TOL after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Management is moving away from multifamily assets to concentrate on luxury homebuilding, while expanding the spec-home strategy and community base. The fiscal 2026 plan is deliberately conservative, with lower projected deliveries than fiscal 2025 and expected margin moderation.
Guidance delta
Fiscal 2026 guidance is conservative and maintained: 10,300–10,700 deliveries, an average price near $980,000, modest margin compression, and community-count growth to 480–490.
Key takeaways
- Record fiscal 2025 home-sales revenue and strong profitability showed resilience despite a soft housing market.
- Management is shifting focus toward core luxury homebuilding after announcing the exit from Apartment Living.
- Spec homes represented roughly 54% of fiscal 2025 deliveries, supporting inventory turnover and broader customer reach.
- The fiscal 2026 outlook does not assume a meaningful housing-market improvement.
Management priorities
- Deliver 10,300–10,700 homes in fiscal 2026 and grow the community count by 8–10%.
- Complete the Apartment Living exit and redeploy proceeds toward growth and shareholder returns.
- Continue disciplined land acquisition and joint-venture land deals.
- Use the spec-home pipeline and community openings to support growth.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$138Current
$50Low
$136.66Average
$198High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 6, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 25, 2026 |
| Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 28, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 21, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Barclays | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Jul 14, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jun 11, 2026 |
| Seaport Global | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 7, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Feb 23, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Citizens | Market Outperform | Market Outperform | Maintain | Feb 18, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 13, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 10, 2025 |
| Wedbush | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 5, 2025 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 5, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Strong Buy | Strong Buy | Maintain | Aug 25, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Peer Perform | Upgrade | Jan 8, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 24, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 23, 2023 |
| Keybanc | Underweight | Upgrade | Sep 19, 2022 | |
| BTIG | Neutral | Sell | Upgrade | Jun 28, 2021 |
| Susquehanna | Neutral | Positive | Downgrade | Oct 14, 2019 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Aug 13, 2019 |
| Mizuho | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 23, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 18, 2018 |
| Maxim Group | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 23, 2018 |
| Argus | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 5, 2018 |
| BTIG Research | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Feb 8, 2017 |
| Keefe Bruyette & Woods | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Aug 24, 2016 |
| Buckingham Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 24, 2016 |
| Zelman | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 20, 2016 |
| JMP Securities | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jan 25, 2016 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Equal Weight | Upgrade | Oct 13, 2015 |
| Sterne Agee CRT | Neutral | Underperform | Upgrade | May 18, 2015 |
| Sterne Agee | Neutral | Underperform | Upgrade | May 18, 2015 |
| Compass Point | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Feb 26, 2014 |
| MKM Partners | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jun 4, 2013 |
| ISI Group | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jan 7, 2013 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Sell | Upgrade | Jan 3, 2013 |
| Stifel | Hold | Sell | Upgrade | Jan 3, 2013 |
| Topeka | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Dec 7, 2012 |
| Williams Capital | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Dec 5, 2012 |
| FBN Securities | Underperform | Sector Perform | Downgrade | Jul 6, 2012 |
| Williams Financial | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Mar 12, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $138. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | Adam Kramer | $159 | $134.82 | +15.2% | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $184 | $135.91 | +33.3% | Sep 25, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $191 | $148.58 | +38.4% | Aug 20, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $195 | $148.58 | +41.3% | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Barclays | Matthew Bouley | $122 | $148.15 | -11.6% | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Analyst unavailable | $170 | $138.88 | +23.2% | Jun 2, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $187 | $132.86 | +35.5% | May 21, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $158 | $132.82 | +14.5% | May 21, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $185 | $132.63 | +34.1% | May 21, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Jonathan Bettenhausen | $170 | $139.47 | +23.2% | Apr 16, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Jonathan Bettenhausen | $190 | $153.66 | +37.7% | Mar 3, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Mike Dahl | $161 | $160.42 | +16.7% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| UBS | John Lovallo | $198 | $161.93 | +43.5% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $174 | $161.94 | +26.1% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $180 | $160 | +30.4% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Sam Reid | $185 | $160 | +34.1% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $177 | $157.08 | +28.3% | Feb 10, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Sam Reid | $170 | $148.81 | +23.2% | Jan 14, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $156 | $146.93 | +13.0% | Jan 13, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Susan Maklari | $140 | $138.55 | +1.4% | Dec 10, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Mike Dahl | $144 | $135.21 | +4.3% | Dec 10, 2025 |
| Barclays | Matthew Bouley | $110 | $132.9 | -20.3% | Dec 10, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $181 | $132.9 | +31.2% | Dec 10, 2025 |
| UBS | John Lovallo | $183 | $134.45 | +32.6% | Dec 9, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $161 | $142.71 | +16.7% | Dec 4, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $160 | $140.74 | +15.9% | Oct 7, 2025 |
| Oppenheimer | Tyler Batory | $155 | $106.38 | +12.3% | May 15, 2025 |
| Wedbush | Jay McCanless | $175 | $149.02 | +26.8% | Oct 25, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Mike Dahl | $143 | $141.03 | +3.6% | Aug 22, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Anthony Pettinari | $125 | $133.86 | -9.4% | Aug 20, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | Stephen Kim | $180 | $123.15 | +30.4% | Jul 15, 2024 |
| Needham | Ryan MacDonald | $77 | $119.24 | -44.2% | Jun 17, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Susan Maklari | $124 | $119.32 | -10.1% | Jun 17, 2024 |
| Argus Research | Chris Graja | $140 | $120.25 | +1.4% | Jun 6, 2024 |
| Barclays | Matthew Bouley | $118 | $122.91 | -14.5% | May 28, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Truman Patterson | $135 | $119.56 | -2.2% | May 23, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Mike Dahl | $300 | $120.55 | +117.4% | May 23, 2024 |
| UBS | John Lovallo | $154 | $119.2 | +11.6% | May 22, 2024 |
| UBS | John Lovallo | $140 | $120.21 | +1.4% | May 22, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Deepa Raghavan | $150 | $127.38 | +8.7% | May 15, 2024 |
| Oppenheimer | Tyler Batory | $157 | $126.53 | +13.8% | Mar 21, 2024 |
| Raymond James | Buck Home | $120 | $102.36 | -13.0% | Feb 20, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Truman Patterson | $118 | $102.16 | -14.5% | Jan 8, 2024 |
| Seaport Global | Mark Weintraub | $93 | $86.88 | -32.6% | Dec 5, 2023 |
| Raymond James | Buck Horne | $100 | $75.93 | -27.5% | Aug 22, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Dan Oppenheim | $73 | $67.38 | -47.1% | May 31, 2023 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $49 | $49.5 | -64.5% | Dec 8, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $50 | $49.5 | -63.8% | Dec 8, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Analyst unavailable | $58 | $45.6 | -58.0% | Nov 22, 2022 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $59 | $44.38 | -57.2% | Jun 16, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Daniel Oppenheim | $63 | $45.8 | -54.3% | Apr 8, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Deepa Raghavan | $82 | $71.6 | -40.6% | Dec 13, 2021 |
| Janney Montgomery | Tyler Batory | $91 | $72.23 | -34.1% | Dec 9, 2021 |
| Goldman Sachs | Susan Maklari | $60 | $72.23 | -56.5% | Dec 9, 2021 |
| Wedbush | Jay McCanless | $73 | $72.23 | -47.1% | Dec 9, 2021 |
Track every rating change on TOL the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationToll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) stands as a prominent luxury homebuilder operating across the United States. The company, along with its various divisions, specializes in the design, construction, marketing, sale, and financing of upscale detached and attached residences within master-planned communities. Its operations are structured into two main divisions: Traditional Home Building and City Living. The latter specifically focuses on developing, constructing, and selling condominiums. Beyond its core homebuilding activities, Toll Brothers diversifies its portfolio by developing and managing golf courses and country clubs, acquiring and divesting land, and constructing, operating, and leasing apartment complexes.…
Historical context
All TOL earningsConsumer Cyclical peers this season
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Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- ACNFY2026 Q4 · October 1, 2026+3.5% EPS+15.8% move
- MKCFY2026 Q3 · October 1, 2026+13.9% EPS-4.9% move
- NKEFY2027 Q1 · October 1, 2026+10.0% EPS-0.7% move
- CAGFY2027 Q1 · September 30, 2026+44.4% EPS-4.9% move
- FDSFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+3.9% EPS+3.8% move
- JBLFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+8.1% EPS-10.0% move
Get the TOL recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-06T19:20:43.616509+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-06T19:20:43.613729+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-06. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.