Tencent Music Entertainment Group · TME · FY2024 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2025

Tencent Music: subscriptions and profit growth lead a confident 2025 outlook

The supplied analysis supports a constructive but qualified view: subscription growth, SVIP upsell, advertising and AI-led product improvements support the growth case, while competition, price sensitivity, social-entertainment weakness, regulation and AI costs are material counterpoints.

Reported Before market openNYSECommunication Services $12.88B market cap
80quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS — Consensus $0.19
EPS surprise — Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue — Consensus $1.01B
Revenue surprise — Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move +15.5% Event window
SPY move -1.1% Same window
Abnormal move +16.6% Stock minus SPY
Volume 3.7× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -15.2% Up to 20 sessions
TMESPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

The current analysis adds record Q4 profit growth, faster advertising momentum, a 260 million-track library, DeepSeek integration, a virtual fan community, new international partnerships and a $1 billion 2025 repurchase program to the prior quarter’s focus on SVIP growth, AI content and premium audio.

Guidance delta

Maintained; management expressed confidence in 2025 but supplied no quantified guidance change in the provided analysis.

Key takeaways

  • Q4 revenue grew 8% year over year and net profit rose 47%, according to the supplied analysis.
  • Music subscriptions, SVIP membership and advertising were identified as key growth contributors.
  • Management highlighted AI features, content and partnerships, while announcing a $1 billion 2025 share repurchase program and a cash dividend.

Management priorities

  • Grow music subscriptions and SVIP membership
  • Integrate large language models into recommendation and creation tools
  • Expand original content, partnerships, IoT and in-car entertainment

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
TME EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q3 '23 estimate $0.12 Q3 '23 actual $0.12, match Q4 '23 estimate $0.13 Q4 '23 actual $0.14, match Q1 '24 estimate $0.14 Q1 '24 actual $0.15, match Q2 '24 estimate $0.17 Q2 '24 actual $0.16, match Q2 '25 estimate $0.20 Q2 '25 actual $0.23, beat Q3 '25 estimate $0.21 Q3 '25 actual $0.22, match Q4 '25 estimate $0.23 Q4 '25 actual $0.17, miss Q1 '26 estimate $0.21 Q1 '26 actual $0.21, match Q2 '26 estimate $0.24 Q2 '26 actual $0.25, match Q3 '26 estimate $0.22 Q4 '26 estimate $1.50 Q1 '27 estimate $1.51 Q2 '27 estimate $1.72
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold22 ratings
Bullish1045.5%
Neutral1150.0%
Bearish14.5%

1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$8.38Current
$8Low
$15.32Average
$27.5High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 11, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Mizuho Outperform OutperformMaintainAug 12, 2026
China Renaissance Hold BuyDowngradeAug 12, 2026
JP Morgan Neutral NeutralMaintainMay 14, 2026
Barclays Overweight OverweightMaintainMar 19, 2026
UBS Neutral BuyDowngradeMar 18, 2026
Show 18 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $8.38. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
NomuraRachel Guo$10$8.46 +19.3%Aug 13, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$15$8.72 +79.0%Aug 12, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$9.5$8.72 +13.4%Aug 12, 2026
UBSWei Xiong$13$10.16 +55.1%Mar 18, 2026
MacquarieEllie Jiang$10.7$11.37 +27.7%Mar 17, 2026
See 31 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) is a premier operator of online music entertainment platforms across the People's Republic of China, offering a range of services including music streaming, digital karaoke, and live interactive broadcasting. Its offerings encompass popular streaming platforms like QQ Music, Kugou Music, and Kuwo Music, which facilitate personalized music discovery and listening for users. The company also developed WeSing, an engaging application that allows users to sing, socialize with friends, share their performances, and explore songs sung by others.…

Historical context

All TME earnings

Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-03-04T00:01:27.916433+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-11T14:20:42.298753+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-11T14:20:42.295980+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-11. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.