Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold22 ratings
Bullish1045.5%
Neutral1150.0%
Bearish14.5%
1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.
Tencent Music Entertainment Group · TME · FY2024 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2024
Tencent Music: SVIP growth and margins remain central to the thesis
The analysis supports a constructive but conditional view: subscriber growth, SVIP adoption, premium audio, and improved margins provide evidence of operating momentum, while sustainability of ARPU gains, retention, competition, and expense growth remain unresolved.
Reported Before market openNYSECommunication Services
$12.49B market cap
80quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
—
Consensus $0.02
EPS surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
—
Consensus $137.2M
Revenue surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-5.5%
Event window
SPY move
-0.3%
Same window
Abnormal move
-5.1%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.5×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+7.9%
Up to 20 sessions
TMESPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about TME FY2024 Q3
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove TME's -5.5% move after FY2024 Q3 earnings?What changed in TME's guidance and outlook in FY2024 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for TME after FY2024 Q3 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, the current analysis shows SVIP membership above 10 million, online music revenue growth of 20%, adjusted net profit growth of 35%, and gross margin of 42.6%. It also places greater emphasis on AI-enabled content and expanded premium audio initiatives, while guidance sentiment remained maintained.
Guidance delta
Management guidance sentiment was maintained; no numeric guidance change was supplied.
Key takeaways
- Online music revenue grew 20% year over year to RMB 5.5 billion, according to the transcript analysis.
- SVIP membership passed 10 million and was identified as a driver of higher ARPU.
- Adjusted net profit increased 35% year over year to RMB 1.7 billion.
- Gross margin rose to 42.6%, with royalty-cost management and self-commissioned content cited as contributors.
- The analysis did not supply actual EPS or revenue surprise figures.
Management priorities
- Grow the SVIP base and develop family membership packages
- Invest in AI for content production and recommendation
- Expand high-definition audio across mobile, in-car, and IoT devices
- Build original long-form audio and audiobook libraries
- Continue share repurchases and dividend initiatives
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$8.63Current
$8Low
$15.32Average
$27.5High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 18, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mizuho | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 12, 2026 |
| China Renaissance | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Aug 12, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 14, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Mar 19, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Mar 18, 2026 |
| Benchmark | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Mar 18, 2026 |
| Macquarie | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Mar 5, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Dec 22, 2025 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 12, 2025 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 14, 2024 |
| HSBC | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Mar 20, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Mar 20, 2024 |
| Loop Capital | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Sep 13, 2021 |
| Needham | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 19, 2021 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Aug 19, 2021 |
| Oppenheimer | Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Feb 19, 2020 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Downgrade | Feb 18, 2020 | |
| CCB International | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Feb 18, 2020 |
| BOCOM International | Sell | Neutral | Downgrade | Feb 18, 2020 |
| New Street | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 18, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 13, 2019 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 5, 2019 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Mar 20, 2019 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $8.63. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nomura | Rachel Guo | $10 | $8.46 | +15.9% | Aug 13, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $15 | $8.72 | +73.8% | Aug 12, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $9.5 | $8.72 | +10.1% | Aug 12, 2026 |
| UBS | Wei Xiong | $13 | $10.16 | +50.6% | Mar 18, 2026 |
| Macquarie | Ellie Jiang | $10.7 | $11.37 | +24.0% | Mar 17, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Thomas Chong | $23 | $11.46 | +166.5% | Mar 17, 2026 |
| 86Research | Charlie Chai | $17.4 | $13.56 | +101.6% | Mar 6, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $25 | $17.79 | +189.7% | Dec 22, 2025 |
| Bernstein | Boris Van | $27.5 | $25.39 | +218.7% | Aug 13, 2025 |
| Macquarie | Ellie Jiang | $29.8 | $25.39 | +245.3% | Aug 12, 2025 |
| Macquarie | Ellie Jiang | $26.2 | $18.2 | +203.6% | Jun 17, 2025 |
| Barclays | Jiong Shao | $16 | $11.74 | +85.4% | Nov 6, 2024 |
| Bernstein | Boris Van | $14 | $11.26 | +62.2% | Nov 4, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Yang Liu | $13 | $11.27 | +50.6% | Sep 25, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Lei Zhang | $15 | $11.12 | +73.8% | Aug 14, 2024 |
| 86Research | Charlie Chai | $12 | $11.13 | +39.0% | Aug 14, 2024 |
| Daiwa | Candis Chan | $12 | $11.14 | +39.0% | Aug 13, 2024 |
| CFRA | Ahmad Halim | $17 | $14.62 | +97.0% | May 14, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Wei Fang | $17 | $14.8 | +97.0% | May 14, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Wei Fang | $15 | $13.38 | +73.8% | May 10, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Lincoln Kong | $14 | $11.53 | +62.2% | Mar 20, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Alicia Yap | $12.3 | $11.52 | +42.5% | Mar 20, 2024 |
| HSBC | Charlene Liu | $10.4 | $11.69 | +20.5% | Mar 20, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Wei Fang | $13 | $11.04 | +50.6% | Mar 19, 2024 |
| UBS | Kenneth Fong | $10.5 | $8.94 | +21.7% | Jan 24, 2024 |
| Macquarie | Ellie Jiang | $11 | $9.04 | +27.5% | Jan 10, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Wei Fang | $11 | $8.34 | +27.5% | May 17, 2023 |
| Goldman Sachs | Ronald Keung | $8 | $8.74 | -7.3% | Jan 9, 2023 |
| Goldman Sachs | Lincoln Kong | $4.4 | $3.97 | -49.0% | Nov 6, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Leo Chiang | $9 | $7.8 | +4.3% | Aug 18, 2021 |
| HSBC | Binnie Wong | $8 | $7.82 | -7.3% | Aug 17, 2021 |
| Jefferies | Thomas Chong | $16 | $7.82 | +85.4% | Aug 17, 2021 |
| Macquarie | Ellie Jiang | $5.1 | $7.82 | -40.9% | Aug 17, 2021 |
| US Tiger Securities | Bo Pei CFA | $24 | $10.46 | +178.1% | Jul 26, 2021 |
| Credit Suisse | Ivy Ji | $17 | $15.21 | +97.0% | May 20, 2021 |
| BOCOM International Holdings Company | Connie Gu | $23 | $14.85 | +166.5% | May 18, 2021 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationTencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) is a premier operator of online music entertainment platforms across the People's Republic of China, offering a range of services including music streaming, digital karaoke, and live interactive broadcasting. Its offerings encompass popular streaming platforms like QQ Music, Kugou Music, and Kuwo Music, which facilitate personalized music discovery and listening for users. The company also developed WeSing, an engaging application that allows users to sing, socialize with friends, share their performances, and explore songs sung by others.…
Historical context
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2024-11-10T18:39:04.055137+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-18T03:30:39.471320+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-18T03:30:39.468450+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-18. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.