Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy14 ratings
Bullish1285.7%
Neutral214.3%
Bearish00.0%
Talen Energy Corporation · TLN · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
Talen’s Q1 strength hinges on data-center demand and Cornerstone execution
Management’s Q1 narrative supports a growth case built on data-center power demand, stronger spark spreads, acquisitions and new generation. Whether that translates into durable free cash flow depends on contract execution, regulatory approvals, basis conditions and delivery of planned capacity.
Reported After market closeNASDAQUtilities
$16.90B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$1.33
Consensus $5.01
EPS surprise
-73.5%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$1.13B
Consensus $1.05B
Revenue surprise
+7.8%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
+6.5%
Event window
SPY move
+1.4%
Same window
Abnormal move
+5.1%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.8×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-7.8%
Up to 20 sessions
TLNSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about TLN FY2026 Q1
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did TLN rise 6.5% after missing EPS estimates in FY2026 Q1?What changed in TLN's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q1?Give me the bull and bear case for TLN after FY2026 Q1 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior quarter’s outlook, management reported Q1 operational strength and said Cornerstone financing was secured ahead of regulatory approvals. It outlined a preliminary 2027–2028 outlook that includes Cornerstone and expanded the development narrative around PPAs, batteries, combustion turbines and combined-cycle projects. 2026 guidance remained maintained, with an update expected after the acquisition closes.
Guidance delta
Management maintained 2026 guidance. The call described a preliminary 2027–2028 outlook including Cornerstone; management said guidance would be updated after the acquisition closes.
Key takeaways
- Management attributed Q1 strength to operations, higher spark spreads, acquisitions and the AWS PPA ramp; fleet-wide capacity factor was 55%.
- The growth plan combines existing generation and long-term data-center PPAs with proposed battery, combustion-turbine and combined-cycle capacity.
- Management described PPL-zone basis widening as temporary, but its timing and impact remain uncertain.
- The earnings comparison was mixed: revenue exceeded consensus while EPS was below consensus.
Management priorities
- Close Cornerstone after required regulatory approvals and update guidance afterward.
- Develop long-term PPAs at existing and new sites in Pennsylvania and Ohio.
- Advance generation and storage projects through PJM processes and project approvals.
- Continue share repurchases while targeting leverage below 3.5x, as described on the call.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$336.9Current
$200Low
$427.01Average
$576High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Nov 4, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 28, 2026 |
| CIBC | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 28, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 27, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 21, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Jul 15, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Mar 19, 2026 |
| Seaport Global | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Melius Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 10, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 9, 2025 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 25, 2025 |
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 11, 2025 |
| Guggenheim | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 8, 2024 |
| BWS Financial | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 6, 2024 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $336.9. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIBC | Mark Jarvi | $493 | $348.17 | +46.3% | Oct 28, 2026 |
| Barclays | Nicholas Campanella | $387 | $337.78 | +14.9% | Oct 27, 2026 |
| HSBC | Meike Becker | $444.3 | $359.49 | +31.9% | Oct 22, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $504 | $362.24 | +49.6% | Oct 21, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | David Arcaro | $514 | $293.58 | +52.6% | Sep 18, 2026 |
| New Street | Analyst unavailable | $405 | $314.46 | +20.2% | Aug 24, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $503 | $312.15 | +49.3% | Aug 21, 2026 |
| BNP Paribas | Analyst unavailable | $560 | $323.24 | +66.2% | Aug 19, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $509 | $341.7 | +51.1% | Aug 10, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $449 | $341.64 | +33.3% | Aug 7, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $482 | $359.9 | +43.1% | Jul 27, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $422 | $365.66 | +25.3% | Jul 20, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Andrew Weisel | $470 | $394.4 | +39.5% | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $508 | $412.8 | +50.8% | Jun 24, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $453 | $438.12 | +34.5% | Jun 23, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Carly Davenport | $499 | $409.81 | +48.1% | Jun 18, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | David Arcaro | $499 | $355.89 | +48.1% | May 21, 2026 |
| Barclays | Nicholas Campanella | $411 | $324.21 | +22.0% | May 19, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $498 | $373.12 | +47.8% | May 1, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $457 | $359.49 | +35.6% | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $479 | $339.17 | +42.2% | Apr 21, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $408 | $365.35 | +21.1% | Apr 20, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $474 | $383.75 | +40.7% | Feb 20, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $473 | $375.69 | +40.4% | Feb 17, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Shahriar Pourreza | $506 | $371.66 | +50.2% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| Seaport Global | Analyst unavailable | $510 | $388.94 | +51.4% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $470 | $419.07 | +39.5% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $457 | $356 | +35.6% | Jan 9, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $443 | $358.03 | +31.5% | Dec 16, 2025 |
| Seaport Global | Analyst unavailable | $505 | $369.1 | +49.9% | Nov 21, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | David Arcaro | $441 | $383 | +30.9% | Oct 28, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $453 | $407.12 | +34.5% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | David Arcaro | $442 | $366.46 | +31.2% | Oct 22, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $439 | $406.84 | +30.3% | Oct 21, 2025 |
| Seaport Global | Analyst unavailable | $496 | $434.91 | +47.2% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Seaport Global | Analyst unavailable | $424 | $402.65 | +25.9% | Sep 10, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $430 | $402.65 | +27.6% | Sep 10, 2025 |
| Melius Research | James West | $576 | $404.91 | +71.0% | Sep 10, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $450 | $389.43 | +33.6% | Sep 9, 2025 |
| UBS | William Appicelli | $431 | $346.62 | +27.9% | Jul 25, 2025 |
| Oppenheimer | Ian Zaffino | $315 | $276.17 | -6.5% | Jul 11, 2025 |
| Daiwa | Analyst unavailable | $200 | $197.85 | -40.6% | Mar 5, 2025 |
| Oppenheimer | Ian Zaffino | $225 | $123.56 | -33.2% | Nov 14, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Shelby Tucker | $233 | $190.02 | -30.8% | Sep 26, 2024 |
| Oppenheimer | Ian Zaffino | $210 | $181.36 | -37.7% | Sep 24, 2024 |
| UBS | William Appicelli | $197 | $165.87 | -41.5% | Sep 18, 2024 |
| Barclays | Nicholas Campanella | $207 | $166.75 | -38.6% | Sep 16, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Paul Zimbardo | $232 | $155.99 | -31.1% | Sep 12, 2024 |
| Guggenheim | Shahriar Pourreza | $219 | $143.89 | -35.0% | Sep 4, 2024 |
| Guggenheim | Shahriar Pourreza | $169 | $138.28 | -49.8% | Sep 4, 2024 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationTalen Energy Corporation functions as an independent power producer and infrastructure enterprise, providing electricity, capacity, and essential ancillary services to wholesale energy markets across the United States. The company's diverse generation assets include nuclear, fossil fuel, solar, and coal-powered facilities. Additionally, it is currently engaged in the development of battery energy storage projects. Overall, Talen Energy owns and manages an extensive portfolio of power infrastructure, amounting to approximately 10.7 gigawatts. The firm's headquarters are situated in Houston, Texas.
Historical context
All TLN earningsUtilities peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTS Fortis Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +4.8% | +0.7% | Fortis scales transmission and LNG investment as funding and regulatory risks persist |
| PNW Pinnacle West Capital Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +5.1% | +1.7% | Pinnacle West raises 2026 EPS outlook as Arizona demand strengthens |
| ETR Entergy Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +14.5% | -0.2% | Entergy raises 2026 EPS floor as data-center investment expands |
| PEG Public Service Enterprise Group Incorporated | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -3.4% | +0.1% | PSEG Reaffirms 2026 Outlook as Nuclear Output and Regulatory Progress Support Results |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- FTSFY2026 Q3 · November 3, 2026+4.8% EPS+0.7% move
- MPLXFY2026 Q3 · November 3, 2026+1.8% EPS-2.4% move
- AMEFY2026 Q3 · November 3, 2026+4.7% EPS+2.8% move
- BALLFY2026 Q3 · November 3, 2026+2.8% EPS-7.1% move
- RACEFY2026 Q3 · November 3, 2026+5.6% EPS+2.9% move
- MPCFY2026 Q3 · November 3, 2026+6.1% EPS-0.7% move
Missed on EPS
- TLNFY2026 Q3 · November 3, 2026-65.4% EPS+7.3% move
- APOSFY2026 Q3 · November 3, 2026-5.5% EPS-0.5% move
- TRIFY2026 Q3 · November 3, 2026-9.0% EPS-9.9% move
- APOFY2026 Q3 · November 3, 2026-5.5% EPS-4.9% move
- FMSFY2026 Q3 · November 3, 2026-1.7% EPS-3.9% move
- PSFY2026 Q3 · November 2, 2026-1.5% EPS+0.1% move
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-11-04T13:00:43.771014+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-11-04T13:00:43.768238+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-11-04. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.