Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy19 ratings
Bullish1789.5%
Neutral210.5%
Bearish00.0%
TKO Group Holdings, Inc. · TKO · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026
TKO maintains 2026 outlook as media rights and new growth platforms expand
The supplied analysis supports a constructive but execution-dependent thesis: TKO's earnings growth case rests on contracted media-rights revenue, expanding partnerships and new platforms such as financial incentive packages and Zuffa Boxing. Resilient live-event demand and capital generation support the case, while event costs, legal liabilities and venture execution are the main counterweights.
Reported After market closeNYSECommunication Services
$13.31B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$-0.08
Consensus $0.24
EPS surprise
-133.7%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$1.04B
Consensus $1.02B
Revenue surprise
+1.4%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
+8.0%
Event window
SPY move
-0.6%
Same window
Abnormal move
+8.6%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.5×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-13.9%
Up to 20 sessions
TKOSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about TKO FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did TKO rise 8.0% after missing EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in TKO's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for TKO after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, the latest analysis shifts emphasis from announced media-rights wins and raised guidance to execution of those agreements, the Paramount+ transition, financial incentive packages and Zuffa Boxing. Management maintained guidance, while the supplied reaction analysis shows an initial positive move followed by negative subsequent drift.
Guidance delta
Management maintained 2026 guidance; the supplied analysis describes targets of about 21% revenue growth, 43% adjusted EBITDA growth and margin expansion to about 40%.
Key takeaways
- Long-term UFC and WWE media-rights agreements remain the central growth and recurring-revenue supports.
- Management identified financial incentive packages as a new high-margin lever, with a 2026 target of $300 million.
- Zuffa Boxing is moving from launch planning toward execution, including a Conor Benn deal and 2026 fights.
- Strong FY25 free cash flow supported dividends and share repurchases, while management indicated further capital returns.
- The White House UFC event, international expansion and new ventures add execution demands alongside the growth opportunity.
Management priorities
- Execute the Paramount and ESPN media-rights transitions and integrate Paramount+ distribution for UFC.
- Build Zuffa Boxing and expand global live-event, partnership and financial-incentive-package revenue.
- Deliver international events and partnerships while continuing capital returns and acquisition integration.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$179.72Current
$98Low
$205.59Average
$251High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 1, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bernstein | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 16, 2026 |
| Guggenheim | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 4, 2026 |
| BTIG | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 4, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Seaport Global | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jul 14, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 11, 2026 |
| Wolfe Research | Peer Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Mar 5, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 26, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Positive | Positive | Maintain | Dec 10, 2025 |
| Baird | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 16, 2025 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 15, 2025 |
| Roth Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 12, 2025 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 12, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 12, 2025 |
| Benchmark | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Mar 3, 2025 |
| Pivotal Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 26, 2024 |
| Roth MKM | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 16, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 12, 2024 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $179.72. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roth Capital | Analyst unavailable | $230 | $183.91 | +28.0% | Aug 4, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Sean Diffley | $230 | $183.91 | +28.0% | Aug 4, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Ian Moore | $235 | $186.08 | +30.8% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Guggenheim | Analyst unavailable | $230 | $184.56 | +28.0% | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Seaport Global | David Joyce | $210 | $180.96 | +16.8% | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Roth Capital | Analyst unavailable | $228 | $186.25 | +26.9% | May 4, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $225 | $186.09 | +25.2% | Apr 30, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Ian Moore | $240 | $186.5 | +33.5% | Apr 27, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $250 | $213.28 | +39.1% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| BTIG | Analyst unavailable | $237 | $213.28 | +31.9% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Roth Capital | Analyst unavailable | $240 | $210.38 | +33.5% | Feb 12, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Joseph Stauff | $251 | $203.27 | +39.7% | Jan 19, 2026 |
| BTIG | Analyst unavailable | $250 | $214.17 | +39.1% | Dec 31, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $210 | $211.62 | +16.8% | Dec 18, 2025 |
| Wolfe Research | Analyst unavailable | $227 | $205.22 | +26.3% | Dec 15, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $230 | $197 | +28.0% | Dec 10, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Joseph Stauff | $229 | $178.97 | +27.4% | Nov 6, 2025 |
| Seaport Global | Analyst unavailable | $214 | $191.21 | +19.1% | Oct 15, 2025 |
| BTIG | Analyst unavailable | $235 | $198.15 | +30.8% | Oct 6, 2025 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $230 | $197.35 | +28.0% | Oct 6, 2025 |
| Guggenheim | Analyst unavailable | $225 | $198 | +25.2% | Oct 3, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Benjamin Swinburne | $205 | $195.79 | +14.1% | Sep 25, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $235 | $201.38 | +30.8% | Sep 17, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | Vikram Kesavabhotla | $250 | $203.14 | +39.1% | Sep 16, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | Vikram Kesavabhotla | $225 | $194 | +25.2% | Sep 5, 2025 |
| Roth Capital | Eric Handler | $210 | $179.82 | +16.8% | Aug 12, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Joseph Stauff | $180 | $160.43 | +0.2% | Apr 28, 2025 |
| Seaport Global | Analyst unavailable | $164 | $152.3 | -8.7% | Mar 5, 2025 |
| Pivotal Research | Jeffrey Wlodarczak | $195 | $159.55 | +8.5% | Feb 27, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Stephen Laszczyk | $165 | $151.97 | -8.2% | Jan 23, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Benjamin Swinburne | $128 | $142.14 | -28.8% | Dec 18, 2024 |
| Roth Capital | Eric Handler | $148 | $125.36 | -17.6% | Oct 16, 2024 |
| Seaport Global | David Joyce | $137 | $127.17 | -23.8% | Oct 9, 2024 |
| Pivotal Research | Jeffrey Wlodarczak | $170 | $114.99 | -5.4% | Sep 13, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Brent Navon | $140 | $117.98 | -22.1% | Aug 20, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Benjamin Swinburne | $118 | $116.92 | -34.3% | Aug 9, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Randal Konik | $150 | $119.54 | -16.5% | Aug 8, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Benjamin Swinburne | $115 | $111.06 | -36.0% | Jul 15, 2024 |
| Roth Capital | Eric Handler | $121 | $100.41 | -32.7% | May 9, 2024 |
| MoffettNathanson | Robert Fishman | $98 | $97.06 | -45.5% | Apr 29, 2024 |
| Roth Capital | Eric Handler | $112 | $97.66 | -37.7% | Apr 12, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Randal Konik | $131 | $97.66 | -27.1% | Apr 12, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Stephen Laszczyk | $102 | $94.9 | -43.2% | Apr 8, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Peter Supino | $106 | $86.42 | -41.0% | Mar 21, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Peter Supino | $107 | $79.79 | -40.5% | Mar 15, 2024 |
Track every rating change on TKO the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationTKO Group Holdings, Inc. stands as a significant enterprise within the sports and entertainment industries. Its business activities are primarily organized into four core divisions: Media and Content, Live Events, Sponsorships, and Consumer Products Licensing. The company is responsible for creating a diverse range of content, including live spectacles, television programs, and both lengthy and concise video productions.…
Historical context
All TKO earningsLatest beats and misses
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Get the TKO recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:36:15.940040+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-30T23:56:06.642675+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-30T23:56:06.639838+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-30. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.