Target Corporation · TGT · FY2025 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2025

Target shows operating improvement, but comparable sales remain under pressure

The analysis provides partial support for a recovery thesis: traffic, digital sales and selected hardlines improved, but negative comparable sales and unchanged full-year guidance show that demand and execution remain unresolved.

Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Defensive $70.85B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $2.05 Consensus $2.04
EPS surprise +0.5% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $25.21B Consensus $24.94B
Revenue surprise +1.1% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move -6.3% Event window
SPY move -0.3% Same window
Abnormal move -6.1% Stock minus SPY
Volume 6.0× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -9.4% Up to 20 sessions
TGTSPY benchmark

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What changed

The current analysis adds a planned CEO transition, progress on tariff and inventory actions, and a larger technology and capital-investment agenda. Compared with the prior analysis, the tone is more confident, but the full-year outlook remains maintained and comparable sales are still declining.

Guidance delta

Maintained: low single-digit comparable-sales decline and adjusted EPS of $7-$9 for the full year.

Key takeaways

  • Management highlighted improvement in traffic, digital sales and the FUN 101 hardlines initiative, while comparable sales still declined.
  • Michael Fiddelke is set to become CEO, with priorities spanning merchandising authority, guest experience and technology acceleration.
  • Management said tariff-related costs are largely behind the company and first-half inventory adjustments are complete.
  • Investment plans include stores, supply chain, technology, AI tools and same-day fulfillment.

Management priorities

  • Scale Enterprise Acceleration Office initiatives
  • Deploy AI tools and expand AI license usage
  • Open and remodel stores
  • Improve store fulfillment and same-day delivery
  • Develop private-label and partnership products

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
TGT EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 2 future estimate-only quarters. Q3 '24 estimate $1.48 Q3 '24 actual $2.10, beat Q4 '24 estimate $2.42 Q4 '24 actual $2.98, beat Q1 '25 estimate $2.06 Q1 '25 actual $2.03, miss Q2 '25 estimate $2.18 Q2 '25 actual $2.57, beat Q2 '26 estimate $2.04 Q2 '26 actual $2.05, match Q3 '26 estimate $1.71 Q3 '26 actual $1.78, beat Q4 '26 estimate $2.16 Q4 '26 actual $2.44, beat Q1 '27 estimate $1.47 Q1 '27 actual $1.71, beat Q2 '27 estimate $2.35 Q2 '27 actual $4.11, beat Q3 '27 estimate $1.92 Q4 '27 estimate $2.56
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold58 ratings
Bullish2746.6%
Neutral2746.5%
Bearish46.9%

1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$156Current
$80Low
$166.24Average
$320High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 4, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
HSBC Buy HoldUpgradeSep 30, 2026
Wells Fargo Overweight OverweightMaintainAug 20, 2026
UBS Buy BuyMaintainAug 20, 2026
Truist Securities Hold HoldMaintainAug 20, 2026
Telsey Advisory Group Outperform OutperformMaintainAug 20, 2026
Show 54 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $156. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
HSBCAnalyst unavailable$190$156.45 +21.8%Sep 30, 2026
Deutsche BankAnalyst unavailable$150$159.14 -3.8%Aug 20, 2026
RBC CapitalAnalyst unavailable$178$159.68 +14.1%Aug 20, 2026
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$167$158.81 +7.1%Aug 20, 2026
Evercore ISIAnalyst unavailable$170$159.03 +9.0%Aug 20, 2026
See 207 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Target Corp. engages in the operation and ownership of general merchandise stores. It offers food and general merchandise, clothing and household goods, electronics, and toys. Its brands include A New Day, All in Motion, Art Class, Auden, AVA & VIV, Boots and Barkley, Brightroom, Bullseye's Playground, Casaluna, Cat & Jack, Cloud Island, Colsie, dealworthy, Embark, Everspring, Favorite Day, Figmint, Future Collective, Gigglescape, Good & Gather, Goodfellow & Co, Hearth & Hand with Magnolia, Heyday, Hyde & EEK! Boutique, JoyLab, Kindfull, Kona Sol, Made By Design, Market Pantry, Mondo Llama, More Than Magic, Opalhouse, Open Story, Original Use, Pillowfort, Project 62, Room Essentials, Shade & Shore, Smartly, Smith & Hawken, Sonia Kashuk, Spritz, Sun Squad, Threshold, Universal Thread, up&up, Wild Fable, Wondershop, Xhilaration, California Roots, Casa Cantina, The Collection, Headliner, Jingle & Mingle, Rosé Bae, Photograph, SunPop, and Wine Cube. The company was founded by George Draper Dayton in 1902 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, MN.

Historical context

All TGT earnings

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-04T02:00:39.637960+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-04T02:00:39.635363+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-04. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.