Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy37 ratings
Bullish1951.4%
Neutral1848.6%
Bearish00.0%
1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.
TransDigm Group Incorporated · TDG · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q4 2025
TransDigm pairs strong aftermarket growth with raised FY2026 outlook
The supplied analysis supports a constructive operating thesis: resilient commercial aftermarket and defense demand, productivity investment and acquisitions underpin a stronger FY2026 outlook. The evidence is positive but depends on OEM recovery, contract timing and successful integration.
Reported Before market openNYSEIndustrials
$60.99B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$10.82
Consensus $10.04
EPS surprise
+7.8%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$2.44B
Consensus $2.40B
Revenue surprise
+1.6%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+1.1%
Event window
SPY move
+0.1%
Same window
Abnormal move
+1.0%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.9×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+0.7%
Up to 20 sessions
TDGSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about TDG FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did TDG rise 1.1% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in TDG's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for TDG after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
The latest analysis shows a stronger forward outlook than the prior quarter: management moved from a raised near-term outlook to explicit FY2026 growth guidance, while emphasizing automation, new defense programs and integration of recent acquisitions.
Guidance delta
Management raised its outlook, with FY2026 revenue guidance indicating approximately 12% year-over-year growth and EBITDA guidance of about $5.15 billion.
Key takeaways
- Commercial aftermarket revenue grew about 11% in Q4, while defense revenue increased about 16% year over year.
- Management highlighted automation, proprietary aerospace components, disciplined M&A and capital returns.
- The main tension is strong demand against OEM production uncertainty and near-term acquisition-related margin dilution.
Management priorities
- Integrate the Simmons Precision Products and Servotronics acquisitions.
- Invest about $300 million in FY2026 capital expenditure, with emphasis on automation and productivity.
- Continue disciplined aerospace and defense M&A alongside dividends and share repurchases.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$1,090.38Current
$660Low
$1,363.93Average
$1,871High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 4, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Sep 30, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 28, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 17, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Sep 16, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Stifel | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Overweight | Downgrade | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 6, 2026 |
| Keybanc | Overweight | Downgrade | Feb 5, 2026 | |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 15, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 17, 2025 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 14, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 23, 2025 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Overweight | Downgrade | Jan 6, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 2, 2025 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 29, 2024 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 8, 2024 |
| Baird | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 8, 2024 |
| Alembic Global | Neutral | Overweight | Downgrade | Nov 16, 2023 |
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 9, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Mar 22, 2023 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Feb 8, 2023 |
| Vertical Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 6, 2022 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 12, 2021 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 15, 2020 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 4, 2019 |
| Longbow Research | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 9, 2019 |
| Berenberg | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 28, 2018 |
| Stephens & Co. | Equal Weight | Underweight | Upgrade | Feb 8, 2018 |
| Wellington Shields | Hold | Gradually Accumulate | Downgrade | Nov 15, 2016 |
| FBR Capital | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Aug 21, 2015 |
| CRT Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 24, 2015 |
| DA Davidson | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Nov 13, 2014 |
| Great Lakes | Hold | Gradually Accumulate | Downgrade | Jan 13, 2014 |
| Imperial Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 8, 2013 |
| Topeka | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Sep 27, 2012 |
| Wedbush | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | May 9, 2012 |
| Auriga | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 30, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $1,090.38. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $1,400 | $1,116.2 | +28.4% | Sep 28, 2026 |
| Melius Research | Analyst unavailable | $1,331 | $1,140.32 | +22.1% | Sep 14, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | David Strauss | $1,450 | $1,225.25 | +33.0% | Aug 10, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $1,625 | $1,225.25 | +49.0% | Aug 9, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $1,400 | $1,256.65 | +28.4% | Aug 6, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $1,695 | $1,244.39 | +55.5% | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Jonathan Siegmann | $1,405 | $1,275.05 | +28.9% | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $1,345 | $1,215.34 | +23.4% | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $1,575 | $1,215.08 | +44.4% | May 10, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $1,645 | $1,240.1 | +50.9% | May 6, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Ken Herbert | $1,350 | $1,191.33 | +23.8% | May 6, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $1,680 | $1,191.33 | +54.1% | May 6, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $1,525 | $1,191.33 | +39.9% | May 6, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $1,565 | $1,285.53 | +43.5% | Feb 8, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Charles Minervino | $1,400 | $1,251.75 | +28.4% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $1,550 | $1,301.93 | +42.2% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $1,800 | $1,301.93 | +65.1% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $1,400 | $1,301.93 | +28.4% | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Noah Poponak | $1,871 | $1,450 | +71.6% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $1,500 | $1,428.44 | +37.6% | Jan 15, 2026 |
| UBS | Gavin Parsons | $1,804 | $1,428.39 | +65.4% | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Ciarmoli | $1,697 | $1,377.42 | +55.6% | Jan 9, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $1,660 | $1,330.3 | +52.2% | Nov 14, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Ciarmoli | $1,647 | $1,270.08 | +51.0% | Oct 15, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Kristine Liwag | $1,600 | $1,306.32 | +46.7% | Oct 15, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $1,450 | $1,285.85 | +33.0% | Oct 9, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $1,370 | $1,284.38 | +25.6% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Michael Goldie | $1,420 | $1,289.29 | +30.2% | Sep 29, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Sheila Kahyaoglu | $1,490 | $1,275.96 | +36.6% | Sep 17, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Charles Minervino | $1,600 | $1,574.85 | +46.7% | Jul 14, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Scott Deuschle | $1,545 | $1,524.23 | +41.7% | Jul 8, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Jonathan Siegmann | $1,710 | $1,470.68 | +56.8% | Jun 23, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Michael Ciarmoli | $1,553 | $1,391.86 | +42.4% | May 7, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Charles Minervino | $1,300 | $1,399.57 | +19.2% | Apr 2, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Matthew Akers | $1,580 | $1,394.11 | +44.9% | Mar 25, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Scott Deuschle | $1,348 | $1,254.11 | +23.6% | Jan 2, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Kristine Liwag | $1,575 | $1,237.37 | +44.4% | Aug 7, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Ken Herbert | $1,500 | $1,321.83 | +37.6% | Jun 24, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Scott Deuschle | $1,524 | $1,339.48 | +39.8% | Jun 20, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Bert Subin | $1,325 | $1,325.75 | +21.5% | Jun 7, 2024 |
| KeyBanc | Michael Leshock | $1,440 | $1,338 | +32.1% | May 28, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $793 | $742.5 | -27.3% | Feb 8, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $765 | $611.3 | -29.8% | Dec 12, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $660 | $636.54 | -39.5% | Nov 28, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $735 | $640.02 | -32.6% | Nov 11, 2022 |
| Bank of America Securities | Ronald Epstein | $790 | $625.25 | -27.5% | Nov 23, 2021 |
| Barclays | David E. Strauss | $710 | $629.63 | -34.9% | Nov 22, 2021 |
| Cowen & Co. | Gautam Khanna | $695 | $660.61 | -36.3% | Nov 18, 2021 |
| Susquehanna | Charles Minervino | $708 | $658.93 | -35.1% | Nov 17, 2021 |
| Goldman Sachs | Noah Poponak | $732 | $599.56 | -32.9% | Sep 10, 2021 |
| Credit Suisse | Robert Spingarn | $712 | $629.11 | -34.7% | Aug 6, 2021 |
| Wells Fargo | Matthew Akers | $718 | $578.24 | -34.2% | May 12, 2021 |
Track every rating change on TDG the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationTransDigm Group Incorporated is a global aerospace enterprise specializing in the development, manufacturing, and distribution of a wide array of aircraft components. Operating across the United States and internationally, its business is structured around three distinct divisions. The Power & Control division focuses on critical systems, providing solutions such as electromechanical actuators and control mechanisms, engine ignition and related technologies, precision pumps and valves, power regulation equipment, specialized electric motors and generators, energy storage units, data communication and power management systems, diverse sensors, switching gear, and material handling equipment including hoists and cargo systems. This segment caters to a broad clientele, including engine and power system manufacturers, airlines, independent maintenance providers, governmental defense agencies, and aircraft repair facilities. The Airframe segment delivers structural and interior components.…
Historical context
All TDG earningsIndustrials peers this season
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| CTAS Cintas Corporation | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +3.0% | -3.4% | Cintas raises FY2027 guidance as Q1 growth broadens |
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| FPS Forgent Power Solutions, Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +4.3% | +9.5% | Forgent Power Solutions pairs record results with an aggressive FY27 buildout |
| CPRT Copart, Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | -8.7% | -2.6% | Copart pairs international growth with ACV investment amid higher costs |
| SUNB Sunbelt Rentals Holdings Inc | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +19.2% | +5.9% | Sunbelt raises FY27 outlook as specialty rental demand accelerates |
| FRO Frontline Plc | FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +8.0% | +1.0% | Frontline posts a record quarter as tanker rates remain elevated |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- ACNFY2026 Q4 · October 1, 2026+3.5% EPS+15.8% move
- MKCFY2026 Q3 · October 1, 2026+13.9% EPS-4.9% move
- NKEFY2027 Q1 · October 1, 2026+10.0% EPS-0.7% move
- CAGFY2027 Q1 · September 30, 2026+44.4% EPS-4.9% move
- FDSFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+3.9% EPS+3.8% move
- JBLFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+8.1% EPS-10.0% move
Get the TDG recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-04T17:20:40.416805+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-04T17:20:40.413809+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-04. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.