Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy17 ratings
Bullish952.9%
Neutral847.1%
Bearish00.0%
The Toronto-Dominion Bank · TD · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q4 2025
TD’s Q4 outlook pairs AI value with buyback plans
TD’s Q4 commentary supports a constructive operating case built on resilient credit, relationship deepening, AI-enabled value creation and shareholder returns, but execution on regulation, expenses and balance-sheet restructuring remains central.
Reported Before market openNYSEFinancial Services
$197.84B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$1.57
Consensus $1.46
EPS surprise
+7.5%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$15.89B
Consensus $10.38B
Revenue surprise
+53.2%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+2.0%
Event window
SPY move
+0.1%
Same window
Abnormal move
+2.0%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.0×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+11.7%
Up to 20 sessions
TDSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about TD FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did TD rise 2.0% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in TD's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for TD after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
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Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior quarter, management quantified AI value at $170 million in 2025 and set a $200 million incremental-value target for 2026, described progress toward completing the current buyback, and outlined a potential new $6–7 billion program. The fiscal 2026 outlook was maintained.
Guidance delta
Management maintained its outlook, including 6–8% fiscal 2026 EPS growth and a 13% ROE target.
Key takeaways
- Management described strong Q4 operating performance, with healthy credit quality and stable PCLs.
- About 75 AI use cases generated $170 million of value in 2025; management expects $200 million of incremental value in 2026.
- TD completed more than three-quarters of its $8 billion buyback and plans a new $6–7 billion program subject to regulatory approval.
Management priorities
- Scale AI use cases across underwriting, lead generation and risk management.
- Continue U.S. balance-sheet restructuring to support future loan growth.
- Advance AML remediation while deepening relationships across banking, wealth and securities.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$118.43Current
$87.53Low
$89.52Average
$91.51High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 6, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jun 1, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Outperform | Sector Perform | Upgrade | May 4, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Dec 18, 2024 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 18, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 25, 2023 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Aug 25, 2023 |
| CFRA | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 3, 2020 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Aug 15, 2019 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 14, 2016 |
| CIBC | Sector Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Aug 26, 2016 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Aug 25, 2016 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Dec 4, 2015 |
| Rafferty Capital | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 6, 2013 |
| Rafferty | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 6, 2013 |
| National Bank Financial Inc | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 31, 2012 |
| National Bank Financial | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 31, 2012 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Aug 28, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $118.43. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIBC | Paul Holden | $91.51 | $83.14 | -22.7% | Feb 17, 2022 |
| Bank of America Securities | Ebrahim Poonawala | $87.53 | $71.92 | -26.1% | Nov 22, 2021 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationThe Toronto-Dominion Bank, along with its affiliated entities, delivers a comprehensive array of financial solutions and services across Canada, the United States, and various international markets. Its operations are structured into three primary divisions: Canadian Retail, U.S. Retail, and Wholesale Banking. For individual customers, the bank provides fundamental deposit products like checking, savings, and investment accounts. Businesses can access a suite of offerings including funding, investment management, cash flow solutions, international trade facilities, and everyday banking. Furthermore, TD offers point-of-sale financing options for major purchases such as automobiles and recreational vehicles. The institution also issues credit cards and facilitates payment processing. Its lending portfolio extends to real estate-backed loans, vehicle financing, and general consumer credit. Businesses, both large and small, benefit from its point-of-sale payment systems.…
Historical context
All TD earningsFinancial Services peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDS FactSet Research Systems Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +3.9% | +3.8% | FactSet reports record FY26 results as AI and MCP adoption accelerate |
| PUK Prudential plc | FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 | -40.9% | -0.5% | Prudential sustains growth and capital returns focus in H1 2026 |
| CM Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +8.9% | -2.8% | CIBC Q3: Broad growth, resilient credit and expanded AI rollout |
| RY Royal Bank of Canada | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +6.2% | -1.3% | RBC reports record Q3 earnings while investing for growth |
| AFRM Affirm Holdings, Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +1230.3% | +0.3% | Affirm's most profitable quarter shifts focus to product execution |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- ACNFY2026 Q4 · October 1, 2026+3.5% EPS+15.8% move
- MKCFY2026 Q3 · October 1, 2026+13.9% EPS-4.9% move
- NKEFY2027 Q1 · October 1, 2026+10.0% EPS-0.7% move
- CAGFY2027 Q1 · September 30, 2026+44.4% EPS-4.9% move
- FDSFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+3.9% EPS+3.8% move
- JBLFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+8.1% EPS-10.0% move
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-06T14:10:45.014817+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-06T14:10:45.010389+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-06. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.