Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy17 ratings
Bullish952.9%
Neutral847.1%
Bearish00.0%
The Toronto-Dominion Bank · TD · FY2025 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2025
TD: Strong Q3 execution, with remediation and runoff risks
TD's Q3 analysis supports a constructive operating picture: strong activity, fee and trading income, restructuring progress, and AI initiatives provide support. The case remains conditional because AML and governance costs, balance-sheet runoff, credit quality, and regulatory scrutiny could limit earnings quality and returns.
Reported Before market openNYSEFinancial Services
$194.46B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$1.91
Consensus $1.46
EPS surprise
+30.8%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$15.48B
Consensus $10.03B
Revenue surprise
+54.3%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-4.3%
Event window
SPY move
+0.4%
Same window
Abnormal move
-4.7%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
3.5×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+8.8%
Up to 20 sessions
TDSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about TD FY2025 Q3
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did TD fall 4.3% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q3?What changed in TD's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for TD after FY2025 Q3 earnings.
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Transcript intelligence
What changed
Relative to the prior-quarter analysis, the current call added evidence of record loan and deposit activity, further U.S. balance-sheet restructuring, progress in AML remediation, and new AI and payments initiatives. At the same time, analyst concerns shifted toward expense growth, loan runoff, impaired loans, tariff-related reserves, and buyback execution.
Guidance delta
Management's guidance sentiment remained maintained; the call emphasized execution of restructuring, AML remediation, and cost optimization rather than a new guidance direction.
Key takeaways
- Management described record loan and deposit activity, 10% revenue growth, and strong fee and trading income.
- U.S. balance-sheet restructuring and AML remediation advanced, while cost-reduction programs remained central.
- New AI capabilities and the Fiserv relationship support efficiency and client growth, but credit and regulatory risks persist.
Management priorities
- Complete U.S. balance-sheet restructuring and exceed the 10% asset-reduction target.
- Advance AML remediation, including machine-learning models and ongoing monitoring.
- Expand AI-enabled personalization, wholesale banking, and cost optimization.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$115.1Current
$87.53Low
$89.52Average
$91.51High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 11, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jun 1, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Outperform | Sector Perform | Upgrade | May 4, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Dec 18, 2024 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 18, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 25, 2023 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Aug 25, 2023 |
| CFRA | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 3, 2020 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Aug 15, 2019 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 14, 2016 |
| CIBC | Sector Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Aug 26, 2016 |
| Canaccord Genuity | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Aug 25, 2016 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Dec 4, 2015 |
| Rafferty Capital | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 6, 2013 |
| Rafferty | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 6, 2013 |
| National Bank Financial Inc | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 31, 2012 |
| National Bank Financial | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 31, 2012 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Aug 28, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $115.1. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIBC | Paul Holden | $91.51 | $83.14 | -20.5% | Feb 17, 2022 |
| Bank of America Securities | Ebrahim Poonawala | $87.53 | $71.92 | -24.0% | Nov 22, 2021 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationThe Toronto-Dominion Bank, along with its affiliated entities, delivers a comprehensive array of financial solutions and services across Canada, the United States, and various international markets. Its operations are structured into three primary divisions: Canadian Retail, U.S. Retail, and Wholesale Banking. For individual customers, the bank provides fundamental deposit products like checking, savings, and investment accounts. Businesses can access a suite of offerings including funding, investment management, cash flow solutions, international trade facilities, and everyday banking. Furthermore, TD offers point-of-sale financing options for major purchases such as automobiles and recreational vehicles. The institution also issues credit cards and facilitates payment processing. Its lending portfolio extends to real estate-backed loans, vehicle financing, and general consumer credit. Businesses, both large and small, benefit from its point-of-sale payment systems.…
Historical context
All TD earningsFinancial Services peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDS FactSet Research Systems Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +3.9% | +3.8% | FactSet reports record FY26 results as AI and MCP adoption accelerate |
| PUK Prudential plc | FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 | -40.9% | -0.5% | Prudential sustains growth and capital returns focus in H1 2026 |
| CM Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +8.9% | -2.8% | CIBC Q3: Broad growth, resilient credit and expanded AI rollout |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-11T05:50:41.131447+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-11T05:50:41.128632+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-11. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.