Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy44 ratings
Bullish3170.5%
Neutral1125.0%
Bearish24.5%
Trip.com Group Limited · TCOM · FY2025 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2025
Trip.com: Q3 Growth, AI Expansion and Travel-Demand Risks
The supplied analysis supports a constructive but conditional view: resilient travel demand, expanding inbound and outbound activity, AI-enabled personalization and mobile adoption provide evidence for continued growth. The case remains dependent on pricing discipline, international execution, competitive positioning and the ability to scale AI investments without margin pressure.
Reported After market closeNASDAQConsumer Cyclical
$25.20B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$3.87
Consensus $1.15
EPS surprise
+236.5%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$2.58B
Consensus $2.09B
Revenue surprise
+23.2%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
+2.2%
Event window
SPY move
-0.8%
Same window
Abnormal move
+3.0%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.0×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-0.8%
Up to 20 sessions
TCOMSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about TCOM FY2025 Q3
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did TCOM rise 2.2% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q3?What changed in TCOM's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for TCOM after FY2025 Q3 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Relative to the prior-quarter analysis, the supplied Q3 analysis emphasizes stronger evidence of AI adoption and travel-market breadth: TripGenie usage expanded across more than 200 countries, inbound travel accelerated with visa facilitation, and outbound long-haul bookings to Europe were reported up more than 30% year over year during holidays. The risk profile now more explicitly includes Japan-China geopolitical tension and margin pressure as international activity and spending scale.
Guidance delta
No specific guidance figure was provided in the supplied analysis; management expressed confidence in continued growth for 2026.
Key takeaways
- Q3 net revenue grew 16% year over year to RMB 18.3 billion, according to the supplied transcript analysis.
- Management highlighted Trip.Planner and TripGenie, with TripGenie usage reported across more than 200 countries and 200% year-over-year growth in H1 2025.
- Inbound travel accelerated alongside expanded visa-free policies, while outbound long-haul bookings to Europe remained strong.
- Mobile bookings represented more than 70% of total bookings, supporting the company’s mobile-first strategy.
Management priorities
- Scale TripGenie and other AI tools across the travel journey.
- Expand senior-traveler offerings and Old Friends Club stores.
- Invest in APAC markets and deepen live-entertainment and event-booking partnerships.
- Improve the mobile platform to drive direct traffic and cross-selling.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$38.79Previous close
$30Low
$57.17Average
$85High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 6, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macquarie | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Sep 17, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 17, 2026 |
| StoneX | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 16, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 16, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| China Renaissance | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 2, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 29, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Benchmark | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 25, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 26, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 29, 2025 |
| TD Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 20, 2025 |
| HSBC | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Nov 19, 2024 |
| CLSA | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 13, 2024 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 22, 2024 |
| Nomura Instinet | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 21, 2023 |
| Daiwa Capital | Buy | Outperform | Maintain | Jun 9, 2023 |
| New Street Research | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jan 4, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Equal Weight | Upgrade | May 17, 2021 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Apr 19, 2021 |
| CMB International | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 18, 2020 |
| New Street | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 3, 2020 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Nov 11, 2020 |
| ICBC Research | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Sep 15, 2020 |
| BTIG | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jun 11, 2020 |
| Nomura | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | May 29, 2020 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 11, 2019 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 5, 2019 |
| Wells Fargo | Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Sep 6, 2018 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Feb 5, 2018 |
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 26, 2018 |
| Guggenheim | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 23, 2018 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 28, 2017 |
| Brean Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 16, 2016 |
| Singular Research | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Feb 1, 2016 |
| Raymond James | Buy | Outperform | Maintain | Nov 13, 2015 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Aug 28, 2015 |
| Summit Research Partners | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 20, 2015 |
| PiperJaffray | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Apr 7, 2015 |
| Aegis Capital | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Aug 1, 2014 |
| Standard Chartered Bank | Underperform | In Line | Downgrade | Nov 6, 2013 |
| TH Capital | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Oct 29, 2013 |
| Credit Agricole | Buy | Outperform | Maintain | May 9, 2013 |
| JG Capital | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 2, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $38.79. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macquarie | Analyst unavailable | $52.2 | $40.43 | +34.6% | Sep 17, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | James Lee | $60 | $39.25 | +54.7% | Sep 16, 2026 |
| HSBC | Parash Jain | $48 | $41.38 | +23.7% | Sep 3, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Thomas Chong | $63 | $44.77 | +62.4% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $40.49 | +54.7% | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Macquarie | Ellie Jiang | $44.3 | $40.49 | +14.2% | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Barclays | Jiong Shao | $75 | $52.12 | +93.3% | Feb 26, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Yang Liu | $75 | $52.33 | +93.3% | Feb 26, 2026 |
| Barclays | Jiong Shao | $90 | $72.44 | +132.0% | Nov 19, 2025 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $78 | $75.03 | +101.1% | Aug 29, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $85 | $75.03 | +119.1% | Aug 29, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $81 | $75.03 | +108.8% | Aug 28, 2025 |
| Barclays | Jiong Shao | $84 | $64.97 | +116.6% | May 16, 2025 |
| Macquarie | Ellie Jiang | $80.8 | $41.88 | +108.3% | Nov 19, 2024 |
| CFRA | Siti Salikin | $80 | $41.88 | +106.2% | Nov 19, 2024 |
| HSBC | Parash Jain | $75 | $41.88 | +93.3% | Nov 19, 2024 |
| Bernstein | Boris Van | $85 | $67.24 | +119.1% | Nov 4, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Brian Gong | $72 | $62.39 | +85.6% | Oct 10, 2024 |
| Macquarie | Ellie Jiang | $75.4 | $68.43 | +94.4% | Oct 7, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Yang Liu | $61 | $51.14 | +57.3% | Sep 25, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Thomas Chong | $75 | $45.93 | +93.3% | Aug 27, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Alex Poon | $64 | $52.75 | +65.0% | May 24, 2024 |
| CFRA | Siti Salikin | $66 | $52.31 | +70.1% | May 23, 2024 |
| Barclays | Jiong Shao | $76 | $54.5 | +95.9% | May 22, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | James Lee | $65 | $57.05 | +67.6% | May 21, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Thomas Chong | $70 | $57.05 | +80.5% | May 21, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | James Lee | $55 | $35.91 | +41.8% | Jan 17, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Thomas Chong | $48 | $37.53 | +23.7% | Mar 7, 2023 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $41 | $34.82 | +5.7% | Dec 16, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $35 | $27.66 | -9.8% | Sep 28, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Simon Cheung | $33.3 | $25.76 | -14.2% | Sep 13, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $32 | $27.22 | -17.5% | Jun 29, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $30 | $24.57 | -22.7% | Jun 28, 2022 |
| Barclays | Jiong Shao | $33 | $29.59 | -14.9% | Feb 9, 2022 |
| New Street | Jin Yoon | $30 | $25.69 | -22.7% | Jan 4, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Thomas Chong | $34 | $22.45 | -12.3% | Dec 16, 2021 |
| Benchmark Co. | Fawne Jiang | $44 | $29.07 | +13.4% | Sep 24, 2021 |
| Credit Suisse | Ivy Ji | $47 | $35.59 | +21.2% | Jun 28, 2021 |
| Nomura | Jialong Shi | $48 | $41.02 | +23.7% | May 19, 2021 |
| Oppenheimer | Jed Kelly | $45 | $39.44 | +16.0% | May 18, 2021 |
Track every rating change on TCOM the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationTrip.com Group Limited stands as a leading global travel service provider, operating extensively both within China and across international markets. Through its various subsidiaries, the company offers a comprehensive spectrum of travel-related solutions. As a booking intermediary, it facilitates hotel accommodations and air ticket purchases, complementing these with access to train, long-distance bus, and ferry tickets. The firm enhances the travel experience with various value-added services, including a range of travel insurance products (covering aspects like flight delays, accidents, and baggage loss), along with conveniences such as ticket delivery, online check-in, seat selection, expedited security, real-time flight tracking, and airport VIP lounge access. Catering to leisure travelers, Trip.com Group curates diverse packaged tour products, from organized group excursions and semi-private trips to fully customized itineraries.…
Historical context
All TCOM earningsConsumer Cyclical peers this season
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Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- ACNFY2026 Q4 · October 1, 2026+3.5% EPS+15.8% move
- MKCFY2026 Q3 · October 1, 2026+13.9% EPS-4.9% move
- NKEFY2027 Q1 · October 1, 2026+10.0% EPS-0.7% move
- CAGFY2027 Q1 · September 30, 2026+44.4% EPS-4.9% move
- FDSFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+3.9% EPS+3.8% move
- JBLFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+8.1% EPS-10.0% move
Get the TCOM recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-06T11:00:46.580006+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-06T11:00:46.577005+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-06. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.