Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy44 ratings
Bullish3170.5%
Neutral1125.0%
Bearish24.5%
Trip.com Group Limited · TCOM · FY2024 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2025
Trip.com pairs strong growth with AI-led expansion, but risks remain
The current analysis supports a constructive operating picture: strong travel demand, international expansion, AI engagement, and capital returns provide support. The case remains conditional on sustained demand, competitive execution, and manageable margin pressure.
Reported After market closeNASDAQConsumer Cyclical
$26.08B market cap
80quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
—
Consensus $0.52
EPS surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
—
Consensus $12.32B
Revenue surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-11.4%
Event window
SPY move
-0.5%
Same window
Abnormal move
-10.9%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
5.7×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+11.1%
Up to 20 sessions
TCOMSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about TCOM FY2024 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove TCOM's -11.4% move after FY2024 Q4 earnings?What changed in TCOM's guidance and outlook in FY2024 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for TCOM after FY2024 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Relative to the prior-quarter analysis, the current call analysis points to stronger reported growth, with Q4 revenue up 23% year over year versus 16% revenue growth cited for Q3. International bookings, TripGenie engagement, and the 2025 capital-return program were emphasized, while AI-agent disruption and margin pressure remain key concerns.
Guidance delta
Management guidance sentiment was maintained; no quantified new guidance was supplied.
Key takeaways
- Q4 revenue grew 23% year over year and full-year 2024 revenue grew 20%.
- International OTA revenue reached 14% of Q4 revenue; international bookings rose more than 70% year over year.
- TripGenie engagement and visa liberalization were highlighted as growth supports.
- The 2025 capital-return program includes a $400 million buyback and $200 million dividend.
Management priorities
- Expand AI features across Trip.com platforms.
- Grow international, APAC, Old Friends Club, and entertainment-plus-travel offerings.
- Invest in global customer service and execute the 2025 capital-return program.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$39.78Current
$30Low
$57.17Average
$85High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 25, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macquarie | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Sep 17, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 17, 2026 |
| StoneX | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 16, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 16, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| China Renaissance | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jul 2, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 29, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Benchmark | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 25, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 26, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 29, 2025 |
| TD Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 20, 2025 |
| HSBC | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Nov 19, 2024 |
| CLSA | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 13, 2024 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 22, 2024 |
| Nomura Instinet | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 21, 2023 |
| Daiwa Capital | Buy | Outperform | Maintain | Jun 9, 2023 |
| New Street Research | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jan 4, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Equal Weight | Upgrade | May 17, 2021 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Apr 19, 2021 |
| CMB International | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 18, 2020 |
| New Street | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 3, 2020 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Nov 11, 2020 |
| ICBC Research | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Sep 15, 2020 |
| BTIG | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jun 11, 2020 |
| Nomura | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | May 29, 2020 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 11, 2019 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 5, 2019 |
| Wells Fargo | Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Sep 6, 2018 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Feb 5, 2018 |
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 26, 2018 |
| Guggenheim | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 23, 2018 |
| Cowen & Co. | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 28, 2017 |
| Brean Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 16, 2016 |
| Singular Research | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Feb 1, 2016 |
| Raymond James | Buy | Outperform | Maintain | Nov 13, 2015 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Aug 28, 2015 |
| Summit Research Partners | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 20, 2015 |
| PiperJaffray | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Apr 7, 2015 |
| Aegis Capital | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Aug 1, 2014 |
| Standard Chartered Bank | Underperform | In Line | Downgrade | Nov 6, 2013 |
| TH Capital | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Oct 29, 2013 |
| Credit Agricole | Buy | Outperform | Maintain | May 9, 2013 |
| JG Capital | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 2, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $39.78. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macquarie | Analyst unavailable | $52.2 | $40.43 | +31.2% | Sep 17, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | James Lee | $60 | $39.25 | +50.8% | Sep 16, 2026 |
| HSBC | Parash Jain | $48 | $41.38 | +20.7% | Sep 3, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Thomas Chong | $63 | $44.77 | +58.4% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $40.49 | +50.8% | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Macquarie | Ellie Jiang | $44.3 | $40.49 | +11.4% | Jun 26, 2026 |
| Barclays | Jiong Shao | $75 | $52.12 | +88.5% | Feb 26, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Yang Liu | $75 | $52.33 | +88.5% | Feb 26, 2026 |
| Barclays | Jiong Shao | $90 | $72.44 | +126.2% | Nov 19, 2025 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $78 | $75.03 | +96.1% | Aug 29, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $85 | $75.03 | +113.7% | Aug 29, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $81 | $75.03 | +103.6% | Aug 28, 2025 |
| Barclays | Jiong Shao | $84 | $64.97 | +111.2% | May 16, 2025 |
| Macquarie | Ellie Jiang | $80.8 | $41.88 | +103.1% | Nov 19, 2024 |
| CFRA | Siti Salikin | $80 | $41.88 | +101.1% | Nov 19, 2024 |
| HSBC | Parash Jain | $75 | $41.88 | +88.5% | Nov 19, 2024 |
| Bernstein | Boris Van | $85 | $67.24 | +113.7% | Nov 4, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Brian Gong | $72 | $62.39 | +81.0% | Oct 10, 2024 |
| Macquarie | Ellie Jiang | $75.4 | $68.43 | +89.5% | Oct 7, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Yang Liu | $61 | $51.14 | +53.3% | Sep 25, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Thomas Chong | $75 | $45.93 | +88.5% | Aug 27, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Alex Poon | $64 | $52.75 | +60.9% | May 24, 2024 |
| CFRA | Siti Salikin | $66 | $52.31 | +65.9% | May 23, 2024 |
| Barclays | Jiong Shao | $76 | $54.5 | +91.1% | May 22, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | James Lee | $65 | $57.05 | +63.4% | May 21, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Thomas Chong | $70 | $57.05 | +76.0% | May 21, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | James Lee | $55 | $35.91 | +38.3% | Jan 17, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Thomas Chong | $48 | $37.53 | +20.7% | Mar 7, 2023 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $41 | $34.82 | +3.1% | Dec 16, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $35 | $27.66 | -12.0% | Sep 28, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Simon Cheung | $33.3 | $25.76 | -16.3% | Sep 13, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $32 | $27.22 | -19.6% | Jun 29, 2022 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $30 | $24.57 | -24.6% | Jun 28, 2022 |
| Barclays | Jiong Shao | $33 | $29.59 | -17.0% | Feb 9, 2022 |
| New Street | Jin Yoon | $30 | $25.69 | -24.6% | Jan 4, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Thomas Chong | $34 | $22.45 | -14.5% | Dec 16, 2021 |
| Benchmark Co. | Fawne Jiang | $44 | $29.07 | +10.6% | Sep 24, 2021 |
| Credit Suisse | Ivy Ji | $47 | $35.59 | +18.1% | Jun 28, 2021 |
| Nomura | Jialong Shi | $48 | $41.02 | +20.7% | May 19, 2021 |
| Oppenheimer | Jed Kelly | $45 | $39.44 | +13.1% | May 18, 2021 |
Track every rating change on TCOM the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationTrip.com Group Limited stands as a leading global travel service provider, operating extensively both within China and across international markets. Through its various subsidiaries, the company offers a comprehensive spectrum of travel-related solutions. As a booking intermediary, it facilitates hotel accommodations and air ticket purchases, complementing these with access to train, long-distance bus, and ferry tickets. The firm enhances the travel experience with various value-added services, including a range of travel insurance products (covering aspects like flight delays, accidents, and baggage loss), along with conveniences such as ticket delivery, online check-in, seat selection, expedited security, real-time flight tracking, and airport VIP lounge access. Catering to leisure travelers, Trip.com Group curates diverse packaged tour products, from organized group excursions and semi-private trips to fully customized itineraries.…
Historical context
All TCOM earningsConsumer Cyclical peers this season
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Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- FCNCAFY2026 Q3 · October 23, 2026+19.9% EPS+8.2% move
- FCNCNFY2026 Q3 · October 23, 2026+19.9% EPS+0.2% move
- FCNCOFY2026 Q3 · October 23, 2026+19.9% EPS+1.0% move
- FCNCPFY2026 Q3 · October 23, 2026+19.9% EPS+1.0% move
- RDYFY2027 Q2 · October 23, 2026+24.0% EPS-0.2% move
- SLBFY2026 Q3 · October 23, 2026+3.7% EPS+7.1% move
Missed on EPS
- INFYFY2027 Q2 · October 23, 2026-4.8% EPS-6.6% move
- BBDFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-7.7% EPS+3.0% move
- SNAFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-5.9% EPS-3.4% move
- SPOTFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-11.6% EPS+11.1% move
- VRSNFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-2.0% EPS-0.9% move
- HBANMFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-5.3% EPS+0.5% move
Get the TCOM recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-02-20T12:45:18.608635+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-25T16:40:45.948406+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-25T16:40:45.945665+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-25. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.