Suzano S.A. · SUZ · FY2024 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2024

Suzano: Volumes Rose, but EBITDA Fell as Cerrado Nears Ramp-Up

Suzano's volume growth, stable cash costs, and progress on the Cerrado project support a constructive operating trajectory, but the 35% EBITDA decline, 3.5x leverage, backlog, and ramp-up demands keep the near-term picture mixed.

Reported After market closeNYSEBasic Materials $10.65B market cap
80quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $0.03 Consensus —
EPS surprise — Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $1.87B Consensus —
Revenue surprise — Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -2.9% Event window
SPY move +0.1% Same window
Abnormal move -3.0% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.4× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -7.3% Up to 20 sessions
SUZSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Volumes increased 3% year over year, but EBITDA declined 35% year over year as lower prices and seasonality offset higher exports. Cerrado reached 94% physical completion, while inventory rebuilding remained incomplete and the shipment and invoicing backlog exceeded 70 days.

Guidance delta

Maintained; management emphasized stable cash costs through 2024 and continued disciplined capital allocation.

Key takeaways

  • Q1 2024 volumes increased 3% year over year, while EBITDA decreased 35% year over year on lower prices and seasonality.
  • Cash production cost was BRL 812 per ton, and net leverage reached 3.5x EBITDA.
  • Cerrado was 94% physically complete, with management targeting ramp-up within nine months.
  • Demand recovery in Europe and North America, price increases, and inventory rebuilding were central to management's outlook.

Management priorities

  • Complete the Cerrado ramp-up and add low-cost pulp capacity.
  • Rebuild inventories and reduce the international shipment and invoicing backlog.
  • Maintain capital-allocation discipline while pursuing selective growth opportunities.
  • Support stable cash costs through incremental operating improvements.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
SUZ REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 actual $2B, None Q1 '24 actual $2B, None Q2 '24 actual $2B, None Q3 '24 estimate $2B Q3 '24 actual $2B, beat Q2 '25 estimate $2B Q2 '25 actual $2B, beat Q3 '25 estimate $2B Q3 '25 actual $2B, miss Q4 '25 estimate $2B Q4 '25 actual $3B, beat Q1 '26 estimate $2B Q1 '26 actual $2B, miss Q2 '26 estimate $2B Q2 '26 actual $2B, miss Q3 '26 estimate $3B Q4 '26 estimate $16B Q1 '27 estimate $16B Q2 '27 estimate $16B
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Analyst 52W Price Targets

$8.64Current
$11Low
$12.2Average
$13.4High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 26, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $8.64. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
JefferiesFrancisco Barbosa$13.4$9.45 +55.1%Feb 5, 2026
BradescoThiago Lofiego$11$9.71 +27.3%Aug 24, 2022

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Suzano S.A. is a prominent global producer and seller of eucalyptus pulp and paper products, with operations extending internationally from its base in Brazil. Its core business is structured around distinct Pulp and Paper segments. The company's extensive product portfolio includes various types of paper, such as coated and uncoated printing and writing papers, paperboards, and tissue products. Additionally, Suzano supplies market and fluff pulps, along with lignin and its byproducts. Beyond these traditional offerings, Suzano maintains a diverse range of other ventures. These encompass the research, development, and production of biofuel, the operation of port terminals, and involvement in power generation and distribution.…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2024-11-11T06:39:45.180704+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-26T01:40:42.879737+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-26T01:40:42.876704+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-26. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.