Constellation Brands, Inc. · STZ · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2025

Constellation Brands Maintains Guidance as Innovation Supports Beer Growth

The supplied analysis supports a cautiously constructive view of Constellation Brands' demand trajectory: brand loyalty, product innovation, and distribution expansion are positives, but macro-sensitive consumers, tariffs, pricing pressure, and execution risks limit confidence in durable growth.

Reported After market closeNYSEConsumer Defensive $20.22B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $3.22 Consensus $3.31
EPS surprise -2.7% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $2.51B Consensus $2.55B
Revenue surprise -1.5% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move +4.5% Event window
SPY move +0.5% Same window
Abnormal move +4.0% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.4× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -3.9% Up to 20 sessions
STZSPY benchmark

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Why did STZ rise 4.5% after missing EPS estimates in FY2026 Q1?What changed in STZ's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q1?Give me the bull and bear case for STZ after FY2026 Q1 earnings.

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, the current analysis shifts from a lowered guidance backdrop to maintained full-year beer revenue and margin guidance. It adds evidence that Sunbrew and Oro are ahead of plan, quantifies incremental aluminum tariff impact at $20 million, and highlights peso hedging above 80%.

Guidance delta

Maintained: management reaffirmed full-year beer revenue and margin guidance despite macro uncertainty.

Key takeaways

  • Management maintained full-year beer revenue and margin guidance despite macro uncertainty.
  • Sunbrew and Oro were ahead of plan, while Pacifico distribution expansion remained a growth lever.
  • The company characterized tariff impact as limited and cited pricing actions and peso hedging as mitigants.
  • California wildfire rebuilding was described as a long-term tailwind already reflected in guidance.

Management priorities

  • Invest in brand marketing and sports sponsorships
  • Scale Sunbrew and Oro offerings
  • Expand Pacifico distribution beyond California
  • Refine price-pack architecture for inflation-sensitive demand
  • Monitor tariffs, regulation, and currency exposure

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
STZ EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 10 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q3 '24 estimate $3.00 Q3 '24 actual $3.19, beat Q4 '24 estimate $2.08 Q4 '24 actual $2.26, beat Q1 '25 estimate $3.46 Q1 '25 actual $3.57, beat Q2 '25 estimate $4.08 Q2 '25 actual $4.32, beat Q1 '26 estimate $3.31 Q1 '26 actual $3.22, miss Q2 '26 estimate $3.38 Q2 '26 actual $3.63, beat Q3 '26 estimate $2.63 Q3 '26 actual $3.06, beat Q4 '26 estimate $1.71 Q4 '26 actual $1.90, beat Q1 '27 estimate $3.22 Q1 '27 actual $3.43, beat Q2 '27 estimate $3.62 Q2 '27 actual $3.74, beat Q3 '27 estimate $2.77 Q4 '27 estimate $1.90 Q1 '28 estimate $3.44 Q2 '28 estimate $3.82
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy47 ratings
Bullish2553.2%
Neutral2144.7%
Bearish12.1%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$123.63Current
$122Low
$215.51Average
$335High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 9, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
UBS Buy BuyMaintainOct 8, 2026
RBC Capital Outperform OutperformMaintainOct 8, 2026
Piper Sandler Neutral NeutralMaintainOct 8, 2026
Needham Buy BuyMaintainOct 8, 2026
Morgan Stanley Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainOct 8, 2026
Show 42 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $123.63. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Deutsche BankAnalyst unavailable$127$119.53 +2.7%Oct 8, 2026
NeedhamAnalyst unavailable$150$118.39 +21.3%Oct 8, 2026
Piper SandlerAnalyst unavailable$125$118.39 +1.1%Oct 8, 2026
Morgan StanleyDara Mohsenian$145$118.39 +17.3%Oct 8, 2026
UBSPeter Grom$144$118.39 +16.5%Oct 8, 2026
See 108 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Constellation Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces, imports, markets, and sells beer, wine, and spirits in the United States, Canada, Mexico, New Zealand, and Italy. The company offers beer under the Corona Extra, Corona Familiar, Corona Hard Seltzer, Corona Light, Corona Non-Alcoholic, Corona Premier, Corona Refresca, Modelo Especial, Modelo Chelada, Modelo Negra, Modelo Oro, Victoria, Vicky Chamoy, and Pacifico brands. It also offers wine under the Cook’s California Champagne, Kim Crawford, Meiomi, Mount Veeder, Ruffino, SIMI, My Favorite Neighbor, Robert Mondavi Winery, Schrader, and The Prisoner Wine Company brands; and spirits under the Casa Noble, Copper & Kings, High West, Mi CAMPO, Nelson’s Green Brier, and SVEDKA brands. The company provides its products to wholesale distributors, retailers, on-premise locations, and state alcohol beverage control agencies. Constellation Brands, Inc. was founded in 1945 and is based in Rochester, New York.

Historical context

All STZ earnings
+2.4%FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q4 2026-1.6%FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026+8.5%FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q2 2026

Consumer Defensive peers this season

Latest reports in the same sector
CompanyQuarterEPS surpriseMarket moveHeadline
PEP PepsiCo, Inc. FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 — +3.7% PepsiCo: International Growth Offsets U.S. Soft-Drink and Margin Pressure
LW Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q4 2026 +27.8% +7.5% Lamb Weston raises FY2027 outlook as North America volume growth continues
MKC McCormick & Company, Incorporated FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 +13.9% -4.9% McCormick reports strong Q3 growth while U.S. volumes remain soft
CAG Conagra Brands, Inc. FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 +44.4% -4.9% Conagra maintains outlook while increasing brand investment and simplifying SKUs
COST Costco Wholesale Corporation FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 +3.2% +2.9% Costco’s growth broadens as warehouses and digital sales accelerate
GIS General Mills, Inc. FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 +4.6% +1.0% General Mills leans on mix, innovation and e-commerce amid pressure

Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:55.686058+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-09T04:30:41.788513+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-09T04:30:41.785735+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-09. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.