Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold15 ratings
Bullish533.4%
Neutral853.3%
Bearish213.3%
Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. · SQM · FY2025 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2025
SQM: Record lithium volume offsets weaker pricing outlook
SQM’s record lithium volumes, low-cost positioning, and strength in iodine and specialty plant nutrition support the operating case, but the thesis depends on lithium prices stabilizing and planned expansions progressing without material funding, regulatory, or production setbacks.
Reported After market closeNYSEBasic Materials
$17.20B market cap
90quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.48
Consensus $0.46
EPS surprise
+4.3%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$1.04B
Consensus $1.12B
Revenue surprise
-7.6%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
+0.4%
Event window
SPY move
+0.4%
Same window
Abnormal move
+0.0%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.8×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+11.3%
Up to 20 sessions
SQMSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about SQM FY2025 Q1
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did SQM rise 0.4% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q1?What changed in SQM's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q1?Give me the bull and bear case for SQM after FY2025 Q1 earnings.
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Transcript intelligence
What changed
The quarter combined record lithium sales volume and strong iodine performance with declining lithium prices and a lower near-term pricing outlook. Management continued to advance capacity projects and maintained guidance, while the Codelco joint venture and operating risks remained unresolved.
Guidance delta
Management maintained guidance; the analysis indicates lithium prices were expected to be lower in Q2.
Key takeaways
- Lithium sales volumes reached a first-quarter record, up 20% year over year, according to the supplied analysis.
- Management described current lithium prices as unsustainable and emphasized SQM’s low-cost position.
- Iodine and specialty plant nutrition delivered strong results, while capacity expansion continued in Chile and Australia.
- The balance sheet was described as providing flexibility with no immediate financing constraint identified.
- The Codelco joint venture remained on the agenda despite political and regulatory uncertainty.
Management priorities
- Expand lithium carbonate and hydroxide capacity in Chile
- Commission the Kwinana and Mt Holland refining projects
- Increase iodine capacity through the seawater pipeline
- Reduce lithium operating costs
- Continue investment in specialty plant nutrition and potassium products
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$60.2Current
$35Low
$72.79Average
$104High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 18, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 18, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Aug 27, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Outperform | Sector Outperform | Maintain | Aug 24, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 14, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Mar 25, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 6, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 21, 2025 |
| Loop Capital | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Aug 28, 2023 |
| HSBC | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 6, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Underweight | Equal Weight | Downgrade | Mar 31, 2022 |
| Santander | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 3, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Mar 8, 2019 |
| Miller Tabak | Hold | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 2, 2013 |
| Craig-Hallum | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | May 21, 2013 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $60.2. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $90 | $66.45 | +49.5% | Oct 6, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Ben Isaacson | $104 | $81.96 | +72.8% | Aug 24, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $94 | $77.36 | +56.1% | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $93 | $67.16 | +54.5% | Jul 28, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Marcio Farid | $82 | $72.95 | +36.2% | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $98 | $71.94 | +62.8% | Jul 14, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $100 | $83.42 | +66.1% | Jun 2, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Ben Isaacson | $105 | $84.18 | +74.4% | May 28, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $106 | $89.75 | +76.1% | May 5, 2026 |
| Berenberg Bank | Analyst unavailable | $53 | $71.86 | -12.0% | Feb 23, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Corinne Blanchard | $91 | $81.88 | +51.2% | Jan 21, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $88 | $77.76 | +46.2% | Jan 12, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $90 | $77.71 | +49.5% | Jan 12, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $79 | $64.17 | +31.2% | Dec 17, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $63 | $63.06 | +4.7% | Dec 4, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Ben Isaacson | $80 | $58.26 | +32.9% | Nov 24, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $77 | $62.62 | +27.9% | Nov 20, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Corinne Blanchard | $46 | $44.44 | -23.6% | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Alejandro Anibal Demichelis | $50 | $43.11 | -16.9% | Oct 6, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Joel Jackson | $55 | $37.12 | -8.6% | Aug 28, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Alejandro Demichelis | $55 | $38.64 | -8.6% | Aug 26, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Isabella Simonato | $38 | $37.7 | -36.9% | Aug 21, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Marcio Farid | $46.5 | $35.98 | -22.8% | Aug 9, 2024 |
| Berenberg Bank | Andres Castanos-Mollor | $35 | $37.73 | -41.9% | Jul 31, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Joel Jackson | $65 | $46.52 | +8.0% | Jun 3, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Corinne Blanchard | $45 | $49.84 | -25.2% | May 28, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Corinne Blanchard | $42 | $49.72 | -30.2% | May 23, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Alejandro Demichelis | $62.8 | $47.61 | +4.3% | Apr 8, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Corinne Blanchard | $115 | $90.07 | +91.0% | Aug 22, 2022 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationSociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A., commonly known as SQM, is a major global producer and distributor of a diverse array of chemical and mineral products. Its extensive offerings include specialized plant nutrition solutions, iodine and its various chemical compounds, lithium and its derivatives, potassium chloride and sulfate, and a range of industrial chemicals, alongside other related products and services. Among its key agricultural products are specialty plant nutrients like potassium nitrate, sodium nitrate, and sodium potassium nitrate, as well as customized blends and advanced fertilizers. The company also manufactures iodine and its derivatives, which are widely utilized across medical, pharmaceutical, agricultural, and industrial sectors. These applications encompass crucial ingredients for x-ray contrast agents, polarizing films essential for LCD and LED displays, various antiseptics, biocides, and disinfectants, components for pharmaceutical synthesis, electronic materials, and elements vital for pigments and dyes.…
Historical context
All SQM earningsBasic Materials peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA Alcoa Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +20.5% | +7.2% | Alcoa: Strong Q3 execution, with safety and transaction risks ahead |
Latest beats and misses
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-05-28T11:46:06.363497+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-17T23:10:41.988863+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-17T23:10:41.986131+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-17. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.