Spotify Technology S.A. · SPOT · FY2025 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2025

Spotify pairs strong user growth with a broader product push

The quarter supports a constructive operating thesis: user scale and product innovation remain visible growth drivers, but the durability of earnings growth depends on advertising execution, margin management, and customer response to pricing.

Reported Before market openNYSECommunication Services $120.11B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $3.83 Consensus $2.29
EPS surprise +67.2% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $5.00B Consensus $4.97B
Revenue surprise +0.7% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move -2.2% Event window
SPY move -1.2% Same window
Abnormal move -1.1% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.8× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -11.5% Up to 20 sessions
SPOTSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Relative to the prior analysis, the emphasis shifted from subscriber momentum and ad recalibration toward a larger product and distribution agenda: lossless audio, a revamped free tier, AI integrations, video podcasts, and a Netflix partnership. Leadership was also set to transition to co-CEOs in January, while management maintained its guidance sentiment.

Guidance delta

Guidance sentiment was maintained; the supplied analysis does not identify a new quantitative guidance change.

Key takeaways

  • Management highlighted 713 million MAU, above guidance, alongside 12% year-over-year revenue growth.
  • The product roadmap broadened across lossless audio, the enhanced free tier, AI personalization, video podcasts, and audiobooks.
  • The investment case remains balanced by margin sensitivity, ad-execution uncertainty, price-increase elasticity, and partner dependence.

Management priorities

  • Scale AI-enabled personalization and additional product features.
  • Expand video podcasts, including the Netflix partnership, while growing audiobooks and premium add-ons.
  • Continue programmatic advertising development and selective pricing actions.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
SPOT EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q1 '24 estimate $0.65 Q1 '24 actual $0.97, beat Q2 '24 estimate $1.06 Q2 '24 actual $1.33, beat Q2 '25 estimate $2.30 Q2 '25 actual $-0.48, miss Q3 '25 estimate $2.29 Q3 '25 actual $3.83, beat Q4 '25 estimate $3.21 Q4 '25 actual $5.16, beat Q1 '26 estimate $3.43 Q1 '26 actual $4.04, beat Q2 '26 estimate $3.27 Q2 '26 actual $3.03, miss Q3 '26 estimate $3.18 Q3 '26 actual $2.81, miss Q4 '26 estimate $3.31 Q1 '27 estimate $3.56 Q2 '27 estimate $3.61 Q3 '27 estimate $3.82
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy53 ratings
Bullish3362.3%
Neutral1833.9%
Bearish23.8%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$584.22Current
$95Low
$461.66Average
$900High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 24, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Wells Fargo Overweight OverweightMaintainOct 23, 2026
TD Cowen Hold HoldMaintainOct 23, 2026
Rosenblatt Neutral NeutralMaintainOct 23, 2026
Piper Sandler Neutral NeutralMaintainOct 23, 2026
Oppenheimer Outperform OutperformMaintainOct 23, 2026
Morgan Stanley Overweight OverweightMaintainOct 23, 2026
JP Morgan Overweight OverweightMaintainOct 23, 2026
Guggenheim Buy BuyMaintainOct 23, 2026
Evercore ISI Group Outperform OutperformMaintainOct 23, 2026
Citizens Market Outperform Market OutperformMaintainOct 23, 2026
Cantor Fitzgerald Neutral NeutralMaintainOct 23, 2026
Barclays Overweight OverweightMaintainOct 23, 2026
StoneX Hold BuyDowngradeOct 15, 2026
UBS Buy BuyMaintainOct 5, 2026
Keybanc Overweight OverweightMaintainOct 1, 2026
Argus Research Buy BuyMaintainAug 13, 2026
Benchmark Buy BuyMaintainJul 22, 2026
Goldman Sachs Buy BuyMaintainApr 29, 2026
Canaccord Genuity Buy BuyMaintainApr 29, 2026
Bernstein Outperform OutperformMaintainJan 14, 2026
Citigroup Neutral NeutralMaintainSep 9, 2025
Deutsche Bank Buy BuyMaintainJul 23, 2025
B of A Securities Buy BuyMaintainJun 26, 2025
Pivotal Research Buy BuyMaintainJun 17, 2025
Loop Capital Hold HoldMaintainMay 2, 2025
Baird Outperform OutperformMaintainMay 1, 2025
Macquarie Outperform OutperformMaintainApr 30, 2025
Wolfe Research Outperform Peer PerformUpgradeApr 21, 2025
Phillip Securities Accumulate BuyMaintainNov 13, 2024
Redburn Atlantic Sell NeutralDowngradeJul 10, 2024
HSBC Buy BuyMaintainApr 24, 2024
Raymond James Outperform OutperformMaintainApr 15, 2024
DZ Bank Hold SellUpgradeFeb 7, 2024
Truist Securities Buy BuyMaintainOct 25, 2023
Monness, Crespi, Hardt Neutral BuyDowngradeSep 28, 2023
Credit Suisse Neutral NeutralMaintainJul 26, 2023
Atlantic Equities Overweight NeutralUpgradeFeb 6, 2023
Jefferies Hold BuyDowngradeJan 12, 2023
Redburn Partners Sell NeutralDowngradeJul 26, 2021
Nordea Equity Hold BuyDowngradeJan 27, 2021
Nordea Hold BuyDowngradeJan 27, 2021
SunTrust Robinson Humphrey Buy BuyMaintainJul 15, 2020
Redburn Neutral BuyDowngradeMay 28, 2020
Consumer Edge Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainAug 20, 2019
Stifel Nicolaus Buy BuyMaintainAug 1, 2019
Stifel Buy BuyMaintainAug 1, 2019
Nomura Buy BuyMaintainApr 30, 2019
Buckingham Research Buy BuyMaintainApr 22, 2019
Buckingham Buy BuyMaintainApr 22, 2019
B. Riley Securities Neutral NeutralMaintainJul 30, 2018
B. Riley FBR Neutral NeutralMaintainJul 30, 2018
BTIG Research Buy BuyMaintainJul 23, 2018
Gabelli & Co. Hold HoldMaintainApr 4, 2018
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Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $584.22. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Cantor FitzgeraldDeepak Mathivanan$550$583.66 -5.9%Oct 23, 2026
Piper SandlerAnalyst unavailable$580$583.66 -0.7%Oct 23, 2026
GuggenheimAnalyst unavailable$650$583.66 +11.3%Oct 23, 2026
Rosenblatt SecuritiesBarton Crockett$576$583.66 -1.4%Oct 23, 2026
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$660$583.66 +13.0%Oct 23, 2026
Morgan StanleySean Duffy$700$583.66 +19.8%Oct 23, 2026
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$650$583.66 +11.3%Oct 23, 2026
Raymond JamesAndrew Marok$625$580.94 +7.0%Oct 22, 2026
JefferiesJames Heaney$620$518.76 +6.1%Oct 20, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$490$529.14 -16.1%Oct 12, 2026
KeyBancJustin Patterson$660$512.92 +13.0%Oct 8, 2026
Piper SandlerMatt Farrell$540$512.92 -7.6%Oct 8, 2026
UBSBatya Levi$675$472.89 +15.5%Oct 5, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$660$487.38 +13.0%Oct 1, 2026
Cantor FitzgeraldDeepak Mathivanan$530$488.4 -9.3%Aug 5, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$530$497.11 -9.3%Aug 5, 2026
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$640$499.66 +9.5%Aug 3, 2026
UBSBatya Levi$690$484.17 +18.1%Jul 10, 2026
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$570$485.22 -2.4%Jul 9, 2026
Cantor FitzgeraldAnalyst unavailable$520$519.86 -11.0%May 26, 2026
Morgan StanleySean Diffley$610$489.93 +4.4%May 22, 2026
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$600$489.93 +2.7%May 22, 2026
BarclaysKannan Venkateshwar$565$489.93 -3.3%May 22, 2026
JefferiesAnalyst unavailable$600$489.93 +2.7%May 21, 2026
UBSBatya Levi$735$440.78 +25.8%Apr 30, 2026
Canaccord GenuityMaria Ripps$720$434.2 +23.2%Apr 29, 2026
GuggenheimAnalyst unavailable$565$434.2 -3.3%Apr 29, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$600$434.2 +2.7%Apr 29, 2026
KeyBancAnalyst unavailable$680$434.2 +16.4%Apr 29, 2026
BarclaysKannan Venkateshwar$500$434.2 -14.4%Apr 29, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$720$433.95 +23.2%Apr 28, 2026
KeyBancAnalyst unavailable$745$511.36 +27.5%Apr 15, 2026
BernsteinAnalyst unavailable$625$486.62 +7.0%Apr 9, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$535$478.18 -8.4%Mar 26, 2026
GuggenheimAnalyst unavailable$600$467.83 +2.7%Feb 24, 2026
Pivotal ResearchJeffrey Wlodarczak$420$490 -28.1%Feb 11, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$760$488.19 +30.1%Feb 11, 2026
Cantor FitzgeraldDeepak Mathivanan$525$476.02 -10.1%Feb 11, 2026
MoffettNathansonClay Griffin$514$485.4 -12.0%Feb 11, 2026
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$650$476.02 +11.3%Feb 11, 2026
GuggenheimMichael Morris$720$476.02 +23.2%Feb 11, 2026
Evercore ISIAnalyst unavailable$700$476.13 +19.8%Feb 10, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$650$476.4 +11.3%Feb 10, 2026
Canaccord GenuityMaria Ripps$750$476.4 +28.4%Feb 10, 2026
KeyBancAnalyst unavailable$720$422.61 +23.2%Feb 9, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$487$512.6 -16.6%Jan 27, 2026
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$625$504.5 +7.0%Jan 20, 2026
OppenheimerAnalyst unavailable$750$529.03 +28.4%Jan 14, 2026
BernsteinIan Moore$650$534.64 +11.3%Jan 14, 2026
Wells FargoSteven Cahall$710$530 +21.5%Jan 13, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$800$544.39 +36.9%Jan 9, 2026
GuggenheimAnalyst unavailable$750$561.32 +28.4%Jan 8, 2026
Cantor FitzgeraldAnalyst unavailable$615$569.62 +5.3%Jan 8, 2026
Morgan StanleyBenjamin Swinburne$775$566.23 +32.7%Dec 18, 2025
Cantor FitzgeraldAnalyst unavailable$675$641.16 +15.5%Nov 5, 2025
UBSAnalyst unavailable$860$642.98 +47.2%Nov 5, 2025
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$700$629.6 +19.8%Nov 5, 2025
Goldman SachsEric Sheridan$735$629.6 +25.8%Nov 4, 2025
UBSAnalyst unavailable$750$656.68 +28.4%Oct 31, 2025
BernsteinIan Moore$830$665.67 +42.1%Oct 30, 2025
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$800$675.53 +36.9%Oct 21, 2025
Goldman SachsAnalyst unavailable$770$728.47 +31.8%Sep 30, 2025
Argus ResearchAnalyst unavailable$845$716.53 +44.6%Sep 29, 2025
KeyBancAnalyst unavailable$830$696.4 +42.1%Sep 15, 2025
Bank of America SecuritiesJessica Reif Ehrlich$900$650.47 +54.1%Jul 30, 2025
GuggenheimAnalyst unavailable$800$620.01 +36.9%Jul 29, 2025
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$750$620.01 +28.4%Jul 29, 2025
Morgan StanleyBenjamin Swinburne$850$715.37 +45.5%Jul 10, 2025
GuggenheimMichael Morris$840$736.3 +43.8%Jun 25, 2025
Canaccord GenuityMaria Ripps$775$658.61 +32.7%May 20, 2025
Evercore ISIMark Mahaney$650$602.93 +11.3%Apr 30, 2025
UBSJohn Hodulik$680$551.74 +16.4%Apr 15, 2025
Redburn PartnersEd Vyvyan$545$508.44 -6.7%Mar 11, 2025
UBSMark Mahaney$700$621.77 +19.8%Feb 4, 2025
Morgan StanleyBenjamin Swinburne$550$448.65 -5.9%Dec 18, 2024
Canaccord GenuityMaria Ripps$560$475.38 -4.1%Dec 2, 2024
Canaccord GenuityMaria Ripps$525$339.9 -10.1%Nov 13, 2024
Piper SandlerMatt Farrell$450$339.9 -23.0%Nov 13, 2024
Loop Capital MarketsAlan Gould$435$339.9 -25.5%Nov 13, 2024
Deutsche BankBenjamin Black$440$381.96 -24.7%Nov 6, 2024
Rosenblatt SecuritiesBarton Crockett$438$371.69 -25.0%Oct 17, 2024
KeyBancJustin Patterson$490$373.28 -16.1%Oct 16, 2024
Goldman SachsEric Sheridan$430$371.45 -26.4%Oct 4, 2024
JefferiesJames Heaney$445$380.36 -23.8%Sep 25, 2024
CFRAKenneth Leon$425$380.36 -27.3%Sep 24, 2024
Pivotal ResearchJeffrey Wlodarczak$510$363.54 -12.7%Sep 19, 2024
KeyBancJustin Patterson$440$337.58 -24.7%Sep 16, 2024
KeyBancJustin Patterson$420$324.92 -28.1%Sep 10, 2024
Cantor FitzgeraldDeepak Mathivanan$340$329.25 -41.8%Sep 4, 2024
Goldman SachsEric Sheridan$425$332.08 -27.3%Jul 24, 2024
Deutsche BankBenjamin Black$430$341.44 -26.4%Jul 24, 2024
GuggenheimMichael Morris$420$330.79 -28.1%Jul 24, 2024
Pivotal ResearchJeffrey Wlodarczak$460$330.79 -21.3%Jul 23, 2024
Wolfe ResearchMark Zgutowicz$405$295.45 -30.7%Jul 22, 2024
Wolfe ResearchDevin Brisco$390$305.13 -33.2%Jul 12, 2024
KeyBancJustin Patterson$410$304.99 -29.8%Jul 10, 2024
Redburn PartnersAgnieszka Pustula$230$306.47 -60.6%Jul 10, 2024
KeyBancJustin Patterson$400$318.96 -31.5%Jun 26, 2024
Canaccord GenuityMaria Ripps$370$310.71 -36.7%Jun 3, 2024
Piper SandlerMatt Farrell$320$281.71 -45.2%Apr 24, 2024
Evercore ISIMark Mahaney$340$310.28 -41.8%Apr 23, 2024
CFRAKenneth Leon$325$318.11 -44.4%Apr 23, 2024
Pivotal ResearchJeffrey Wlodarczak$400$305.56 -31.5%Apr 23, 2024
Goldman SachsEric Sheridan$277$298.08 -52.6%Apr 17, 2024
Piper SandlerMatt Farrell$250$309.07 -57.2%Apr 9, 2024
Pivotal ResearchJeffrey Wlodarczak$390$295.96 -33.2%Apr 5, 2024
Rosenblatt SecuritiesBarton Crockett$315$291.77 -46.1%Apr 4, 2024
Evercore ISIMark Mahaney$285$287.23 -51.2%Apr 3, 2024
KeyBancJustin Patterson$300$262.81 -48.6%Mar 27, 2024
HSBCJoseph Thomas$310$262.81 -46.9%Mar 27, 2024
MacquarieTim Nollen$300$238.54 -48.6%Feb 7, 2024
UBSBatya Levi$274$217.62 -53.1%Jan 30, 2024
Pivotal ResearchJeffrey Wlodarczak$265$192.46 -54.6%Jan 5, 2024
Morgan StanleyTim Nollen$232$199.32 -60.3%Dec 5, 2023
Raymond JamesAndrew Marok$210$161.82 -64.1%Oct 25, 2023
Piper SandlerMatt Farrell$150$156.57 -74.3%Oct 11, 2023
Morgan StanleyBenjamin Swinburne$185$159.58 -68.3%Oct 4, 2023
Truist FinancialMatthew Thornton$176$157.3 -69.9%Oct 2, 2023
Deutsche BankBenjamin Black$180$140.38 -69.2%Jul 26, 2023
Truist FinancialMatthew Thornton$170$158.62 -70.9%Jun 27, 2023
Wolfe ResearchZach Morrissey$190$156.1 -67.5%Jun 21, 2023
Atlantic EquitiesHamilton Faber$160$124.02 -72.6%Feb 6, 2023
Wells FargoSteven Cahall$180$121.17 -69.2%Feb 6, 2023
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$132$118.14 -77.4%Feb 2, 2023
Morgan StanleyBenjamin Swinburne$130$116.97 -77.7%Feb 1, 2023
Rosenblatt SecuritiesAnalyst unavailable$110$112.72 -81.2%Feb 1, 2023
Pivotal ResearchAnalyst unavailable$130$112.72 -77.7%Feb 1, 2023
Raymond JamesAnalyst unavailable$130$112.72 -77.7%Feb 1, 2023
JefferiesAndrew Uerkwitz$95$91.75 -83.7%Jan 12, 2023
Morgan StanleyAnalyst unavailable$105$73.26 -82.0%Dec 19, 2022
Raymond JamesAndrew Marok$110$97.05 -81.2%Oct 26, 2022
BarclaysMario Lu$135$97.05 -76.9%Oct 26, 2022
Bank of America SecuritiesJessica Reif Cohen$120$97.05 -79.5%Oct 26, 2022
Truist FinancialMatthew Thornton$125$92.25 -78.6%Oct 7, 2022
Loop Capital MarketsJustin Patterson$148$89.14 -74.7%Sep 27, 2022
Morgan StanleyBenjamin Swinburne$140$121.16 -76.0%Aug 4, 2022
CitigroupAnalyst unavailable$145$116.61 -75.2%Jul 28, 2022
Evercore ISIAnalyst unavailable$230$105.86 -60.6%Jul 7, 2022
CitigroupAnalyst unavailable$150$103.74 -74.3%Jul 7, 2022
Wells FargoSteven Cahall$124$94.42 -78.8%Jun 30, 2022
Morgan StanleyBenjamin Swinburne$170$97.8 -70.9%Jun 16, 2022
Goldman SachsEric Sheridan$133$111.93 -77.2%Jun 9, 2022
Bank of America SecuritiesJessica Reif Cohen$164$111.93 -71.9%Jun 9, 2022
Raymond JamesAndrew Marok$150$112.86 -74.3%Jun 6, 2022
Raymond JamesAndrew Marok$150$111.04 -74.3%Jun 6, 2022
KeyBancJustin Patterson$210$112.19 -64.1%Jun 3, 2022
Truist FinancialMatthew Thornton$150$108.86 -74.3%May 3, 2022
CitigroupAnalyst unavailable$165$105.32 -71.8%Apr 29, 2022
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$170$103.22 -70.9%Apr 28, 2022
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$101$103.26 -82.7%Apr 28, 2022
Loop Capital MarketsJustin Patterson$210$96.62 -64.1%Apr 28, 2022
Goldman SachsEric Sheridan$150$96.99 -74.3%Apr 28, 2022
GuggenheimAnalyst unavailable$95$97.77 -83.7%Apr 27, 2022
Rosenblatt SecuritiesAnalyst unavailable$150$138.1 -74.3%Apr 19, 2022
KeyBancJustin Patterson$235$134.51 -59.8%Apr 18, 2022
Truist FinancialMatthew Thornton$210$141.28 -64.1%Apr 9, 2022
UBSEric Sheridan$185$148.91 -68.3%Apr 5, 2022
Deutsche BankBenjamin Black$140$133.58 -76.0%Mar 16, 2022
Benchmark Co.Matthew Harrigan$260$135.17 -55.5%Mar 4, 2022
Bank of America SecuritiesJessica Reif Ehrlich$262$165.92 -55.2%Feb 8, 2022
Credit SuisseDouglas Mitchelson$238$159.76 -59.3%Feb 3, 2022
Wells FargoSteven Cahall$153$159.76 -73.8%Feb 3, 2022
MonnessBrian White$240$159.76 -58.9%Feb 3, 2022
Atlantic EquitiesHamilton Faber$210$159.76 -64.1%Feb 3, 2022
Wolfe ResearchDeepak Mathivanan$220$159.76 -62.3%Feb 3, 2022
BarclaysMario Lu$280$159.76 -52.1%Feb 3, 2022
J.P. MorganDoug Anmuth$280$159.76 -52.1%Feb 3, 2022
JefferiesAndrew Uerkwitz$275$159.76 -52.9%Feb 3, 2022
Pivotal ResearchJeffrey Wlodarczak$235$191.92 -59.8%Feb 2, 2022
LightShed PartnersRichard Greenfield$260$191.92 -55.5%Feb 2, 2022
CitigroupJason Bazinet$240$196.26 -58.9%Jan 31, 2022
Redburn PartnersNick Delfas$170$240.59 -70.9%Jul 26, 2021
Loop Capital MarketsAlan Gould$280$252.12 -52.1%Apr 30, 2021
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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Spotify Technology S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides audio streaming subscription services worldwide. It operates in two segments, Premium and Ad-Supported. The Premium segment offers online and offline streaming access to its catalog of music and podcasts, including video, lossless music, and audiobooks in select markets through subscription offerings primarily sold directly to end users and partners. The Ad-Supported segment provides limited on-demand online access to its catalog of music and online and offline access to its catalog of podcasts on computers, tablets, mobile devices, and other smart devices. The company also offers sales, distribution and marketing, contract research and development, and customer and other support services. Spotify Technology S.A. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-24T06:10:43.112743+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-24T06:10:43.109888+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-24. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.