Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy36 ratings
Bullish3186.1%
Neutral513.9%
Bearish00.0%
Semtech Corporation · SMTC · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2025
Semtech sees FY2026 growth despite a CopperEdge demand gap
Semtech's FY2025 momentum, debt reduction and growth in data center and LoRa support management's FY2026 outlook, but the near-term CopperEdge demand gap is a material test of that trajectory.
Reported Before market openNASDAQTechnology
$12.76B market cap
80quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
—
Consensus $0.32
EPS surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
—
Consensus —
Revenue surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-3.4%
Event window
SPY move
-1.3%
Same window
Abnormal move
-2.0%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.3×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-17.5%
Up to 20 sessions
SMTCSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about SMTC FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove SMTC's -3.4% move after FY2025 Q4 earnings?What changed in SMTC's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for SMTC after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
The current analysis shifts the emphasis from the prior quarter's CopperEdge shipment ramp to a near-term demand gap tied to rack-architecture changes. Offsetting developments include record data-center revenue, strong LoRa growth, debt reduction and a maintained FY2026 growth-and-margin outlook.
Guidance delta
Maintained: FY2026 outlook targets 21% year-over-year sales growth with continued margin expansion.
Key takeaways
- FY2025 ended with sequential sales, gross-margin and operating-margin growth.
- Data-center revenue reached a record $50 million, while CopperEdge faces a near-term demand gap tied to rack-architecture changes.
- LoRa revenue surged 205% year over year, and debt reduction improved financial flexibility.
- Management expects FY2026 sales growth and further margin expansion.
Management priorities
- Accelerate R&D investment in data center, LoRa and person-sensing technologies.
- Expand CopperEdge and FiberEdge into board-level and connector applications.
- Continue margin-expansion initiatives through AI-enabled operational efficiency.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
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Analyst 52W Price Targets
$136.73Current
$40Low
$175.66Average
$300High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 18, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 13, 2026 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 1, 2026 |
| Northland Capital Markets | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Aug 27, 2026 |
| Baird | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 27, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 26, 2026 |
| Needham | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 26, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Aug 26, 2026 |
| Roth Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 24, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 22, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Positive | Positive | Maintain | May 27, 2026 |
| Craig-Hallum | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 27, 2026 |
| Benchmark | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 27, 2026 |
| B. Riley Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 27, 2026 |
| Roth MKM | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 28, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | May 29, 2024 |
| Summit Insights Group | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Sep 14, 2023 |
| Cowen & Co. | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Sep 1, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Mar 17, 2022 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Mar 18, 2021 |
| B. Riley FBR | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 18, 2021 |
| CFRA | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 28, 2020 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 27, 2019 |
| B. Riley | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 29, 2019 |
| Loop Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 22, 2018 |
| PiperJaffray | Overweight | Neutral | Upgrade | Apr 4, 2018 |
| BWS Financial | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 20, 2017 |
| Drexel Hamilton | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Mar 1, 2016 |
| MKM Partners | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Sep 25, 2015 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Strong Buy | Downgrade | Mar 27, 2015 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Nov 20, 2014 |
| Williams Financial | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 19, 2013 |
| Williams Capital | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 19, 2013 |
| Sterne Agee | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 10, 2013 |
| Lazard | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Oct 3, 2012 |
| Morgan Keegan | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Mar 8, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $136.73. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.A. Davidson | Analyst unavailable | $230 | $139.89 | +68.2% | Oct 16, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Tore Svanberg | $200 | $144.21 | +46.3% | Oct 16, 2026 |
| Northland Securities | Analyst unavailable | $186 | $144.21 | +36.0% | Oct 16, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Joseph Moore | $205 | $144.21 | +49.9% | Oct 16, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Harsh Kumar | $230 | $177.3 | +68.2% | Oct 13, 2026 |
| B.Riley Financial | Craig Ellis | $210 | $193.78 | +53.6% | Oct 8, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Tore Svanberg | $220 | $194.88 | +60.9% | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Seaport Global | Analyst unavailable | $200 | $174.33 | +46.3% | Sep 22, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $300 | $140.8 | +119.4% | Aug 27, 2026 |
| Northland Securities | Gus Richard | $182 | $140.8 | +33.1% | Aug 27, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $195 | $140.88 | +42.6% | Aug 26, 2026 |
| Roth Capital | Analyst unavailable | $220 | $142.62 | +60.9% | Aug 26, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $230 | $127.52 | +68.2% | Aug 26, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $155 | $124.88 | +13.4% | Aug 20, 2026 |
| New Street | Analyst unavailable | $230 | $126.6 | +68.2% | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Cowen & Co. | Analyst unavailable | $215 | $168.26 | +57.2% | Jun 22, 2026 |
| Craig-Hallum | Anthony Stoss | $205 | $159.28 | +49.9% | May 27, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $175 | $164.46 | +28.0% | May 27, 2026 |
| Roth Capital | Scott Searle | $190 | $164.46 | +39.0% | May 27, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $200 | $164.46 | +46.3% | May 27, 2026 |
| Robert W. Baird | Tristan Gerra | $225 | $164.46 | +64.6% | May 27, 2026 |
| Needham | Quinn Bolton | $200 | $164.46 | +46.3% | May 27, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Christopher Rolland | $200 | $164.46 | +46.3% | May 27, 2026 |
| UBS | Timothy Arcuri | $225 | $164.46 | +64.6% | May 27, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Tristan Gerra | $225 | $164.46 | +64.6% | May 27, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Tore Svanberg | $188 | $164.46 | +37.5% | May 27, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $155 | $156.78 | +13.4% | May 26, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Rick Schafer | $150 | $146.53 | +9.7% | May 22, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Tore Svanberg | $157 | $141.85 | +14.8% | May 21, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $170 | $134.79 | +24.3% | May 20, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $165 | $132.51 | +20.7% | May 18, 2026 |
| Craig-Hallum | Anthony Stoss | $105 | $81.23 | -23.2% | Mar 17, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Rick Schafer | $110 | $81.25 | -19.5% | Mar 17, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Christopher Rolland | $100 | $85.14 | -26.9% | Mar 9, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $90 | $79 | -34.2% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| Roth Capital | Analyst unavailable | $77 | $64.98 | -43.7% | Nov 25, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $67 | $70.01 | -51.0% | Nov 25, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $88 | $70.01 | -35.6% | Nov 25, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Harsh Kumar | $70 | $70.01 | -48.8% | Nov 25, 2025 |
| Needham | Quinn Bolton | $80 | $70.01 | -41.5% | Nov 25, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $64 | $67.93 | -53.2% | Nov 24, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Christopher Rolland | $80 | $62.71 | -41.5% | Nov 18, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Tore Svanberg | $80 | $71.45 | -41.5% | Oct 1, 2025 |
| Oppenheimer | Rick Schafer | $81 | $61.98 | -40.8% | Sep 30, 2025 |
| Craig-Hallum | Analyst unavailable | $62 | $58.66 | -54.7% | Aug 26, 2025 |
| Northland Securities | Gus Richard | $53 | $56.84 | -61.2% | Aug 26, 2025 |
| Piper Sandler | Harsh Kumar | $65 | $51 | -52.5% | Aug 26, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Joseph Moore | $43 | $37.01 | -68.6% | May 28, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Joseph Moore | $30 | $27.75 | -78.1% | Apr 7, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $39.6 | -56.1% | Mar 14, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Tore Svanberg | $60 | $31.44 | -56.1% | Mar 10, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Tore Svanberg | $75 | $67.16 | -45.1% | Jan 6, 2025 |
| B.Riley Financial | Craig Ellis | $61 | $41.28 | -55.4% | Aug 28, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Tore Svanberg | $45 | $31.18 | -67.1% | Jun 7, 2024 |
| CFRA | Angelo Zino | $46 | $37.86 | -66.4% | Jun 6, 2024 |
| Craig-Hallum | Anthony Stoss | $48 | $38.68 | -64.9% | Jun 6, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Tore Svanberg | $50 | $45.62 | -63.4% | Jun 6, 2024 |
| Roth Capital | Scott Searle | $50 | $38.68 | -63.4% | Jun 6, 2024 |
| B.Riley Financial | Craig Ellis | $58 | $38.68 | -57.6% | Jun 6, 2024 |
| Susquehanna | Christopher Rolland | $55 | $38.68 | -59.8% | Jun 6, 2024 |
| Needham | Quinn Bolton | $50 | $38.68 | -63.4% | Jun 6, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Harsh Kumar | $60 | $41.84 | -56.1% | May 29, 2024 |
| Craig-Hallum | Anthony Stoss | $36 | $27.49 | -73.7% | Apr 1, 2024 |
| Susquehanna | Christopher Rolland | $45 | $27.49 | -67.1% | Apr 1, 2024 |
| CFRA | Angelo Zino | $32 | $27.49 | -76.6% | Apr 1, 2024 |
| Northland Securities | Gus Richard | $36.5 | $27.49 | -73.3% | Apr 1, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | Tristan Gerra | $50 | $27.49 | -63.4% | Apr 1, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Harsh Kumar | $40 | $27.49 | -70.7% | Apr 1, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Tore Svanberg | $31 | $27.49 | -77.3% | Apr 1, 2024 |
| Needham | Quinn Bolton | $38 | $27.49 | -72.2% | Apr 1, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Tore Svanberg | $26 | $27.97 | -81.0% | Mar 28, 2024 |
| Susquehanna | Christopher Rolland | $30 | $24.5 | -78.1% | Sep 14, 2023 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Tore Svanberg | $32 | $22.6 | -76.6% | Sep 13, 2023 |
| Needham | Quinn Bolton | $35 | $25.48 | -74.4% | Sep 6, 2023 |
| Robert W. Baird | Baird Ratings | $40 | $21.4 | -70.7% | Jun 12, 2023 |
| Susquehanna | Christopher Rolland | $25 | $22.34 | -81.7% | Jun 1, 2023 |
| Piper Sandler | Harsh Kumar | $45 | $30.74 | -67.1% | Nov 30, 2022 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $48 | $31.79 | -64.9% | Sep 1, 2022 |
| Cowen & Co. | Analyst unavailable | $43 | $46.19 | -68.6% | Sep 1, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Analyst unavailable | $60 | $46.19 | -56.1% | Sep 1, 2022 |
| Needham | Analyst unavailable | $75 | $64.38 | -45.1% | Jun 2, 2022 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $72 | $64.08 | -47.3% | Jun 1, 2022 |
| Piper Sandler | Harsh Kumar | $95 | $60.91 | -30.5% | May 5, 2022 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationSemtech Corporation is a technology firm specializing in the creation, production, and global distribution of advanced analog and mixed-signal semiconductor components, complemented by sophisticated algorithms. The company's extensive product portfolio begins with signal integrity solutions. These encompass crucial optical data communication and video transport products utilized in various infrastructure and industrial environments. It also provides integrated circuits specifically engineered for data centers, corporate networks, passive optical networks, wireless base station optical transceivers, and high-speed interface applications. Furthermore, Semtech develops video technologies for broadcast purposes and professional audio-visual (AV) needs, including innovative video-over-IP technology. Another significant offering involves protection products, which integrate filter and termination devices with transient voltage suppressors. These components are designed to shield electronic systems from harmful voltage spikes.…
Historical context
All SMTC earningsTechnology peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WIT Wipro Limited | FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q4 2026 | -25.0% | +3.9% | Wipro: AI pipeline expands as Q3 guidance stays narrow |
| TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +3.4% | -1.8% | TSMC beats Q3 guidance as AI demand drives fab expansion |
| ERIC Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ) | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +28.6% | +11.8% | Ericsson Q3: 7% organic growth, resilient margins and AI-led demand |
Latest beats and misses
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-02-28T22:36:58.425920+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-17T20:40:40.950170+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-17T20:40:40.947240+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-17. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.