Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold29 ratings
Bullish1448.3%
Neutral1344.8%
Bearish26.9%
1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.
The J. M. Smucker Company · SJM · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2025
Smucker Holds Guidance as Coffee Tariffs Offset Pricing Gains
The quarter supports a mixed view: pricing, brand investment, cost savings, and stronger free cash flow provide support, but tariffs, elasticity, category volume pressure, and execution risks limit confidence in a durable earnings-growth trajectory.
Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Defensive
$12.39B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$1.90
Consensus $1.93
EPS surprise
-1.6%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$2.11B
Consensus $2.12B
Revenue surprise
-0.1%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
-4.4%
Event window
SPY move
+0.2%
Same window
Abnormal move
-4.7%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
3.8×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+2.1%
Up to 20 sessions
SJMSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about SJM FY2026 Q1
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did SJM fall 4.4% after missing EPS estimates in FY2026 Q1?What changed in SJM's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q1?Give me the bull and bear case for SJM after FY2026 Q1 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Coffee pricing reached mid-20% growth but was offset by higher tariffs. Management added a $30 million SKU-rationalization program, raised free-cash-flow outlook by $100 million, and linked the increase to debt paydown.
Guidance delta
Management maintained the EPS guidance midpoint and raised free-cash-flow outlook by $100 million, with the increase directed toward debt paydown.
Key takeaways
- Coffee pricing produced mid-20% price growth, but higher green-coffee tariffs offset the profit benefit.
- Management outlined $30 million of SKU-rationalization savings, beginning with $10 million in Q4 FY2026.
- Milk Bone is expected to return to growth in the second half of FY2026 through marketing and product innovation.
- The company plans to use the higher free-cash-flow outlook to reduce debt and target 3-times leverage by FY2027.
Management priorities
- Execute coffee pricing actions while managing elasticity and tariff exposure.
- Implement SKU rationalization and close the Indianapolis bakery.
- Support Milk Bone, Uncrustables, and other growth brands through innovation and advertising.
- Apply incremental free cash flow to debt reduction.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$115.95Previous close
$100Low
$131.63Average
$165High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 2, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 27, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Aug 27, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 27, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 27, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Aug 27, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Aug 27, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Aug 19, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 14, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jun 10, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 10, 2026 |
| Stifel | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 21, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Mar 30, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Sep 12, 2025 |
| DA Davidson | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 28, 2025 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 11, 2025 |
| Consumer Edge Research | Equal Weight | Underweight | Upgrade | Sep 1, 2023 |
| Exane BNP Paribas | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Nov 15, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Sell | Sell | Maintain | Oct 10, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 24, 2022 |
| Guggenheim | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Nov 9, 2021 |
| Argus | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Apr 1, 2019 |
| Susquehanna | Positive | Neutral | Upgrade | Nov 13, 2017 |
| Stephens & Co. | Equal Weight | Overweight | Downgrade | Jul 19, 2017 |
| Hilliard Lyons | Neutral | Upgrade | Jul 11, 2017 | |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Dec 6, 2016 |
| KeyBanc | Equal Weight | Sector Weight | Maintain | May 26, 2016 |
| Tigress Financial | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 10, 2015 |
| Northcoast Research | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Sep 12, 2013 |
| Gabelli & Co. | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Jun 7, 2013 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $115.95. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coker Palmer | Thomas Palmer | $149 | $132.44 | +28.5% | Aug 27, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $150 | $131 | +29.4% | Aug 27, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | David Palmer | $150 | $130.9 | +29.4% | Aug 27, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $157 | $130.9 | +35.4% | Aug 27, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $144 | $130.9 | +24.2% | Aug 27, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $145 | $130.9 | +25.1% | Aug 27, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $132 | $130.9 | +13.8% | Aug 27, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $125 | $130.9 | +7.8% | Aug 27, 2026 |
| UBS | Peter Grom | $142 | $122.84 | +22.5% | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $140 | $118.5 | +20.7% | Aug 19, 2026 |
| H.C. Wainwright | Analyst unavailable | $123 | $118.5 | +6.1% | Aug 19, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Steve Powers | $107 | $120.33 | -7.7% | Aug 14, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $125 | $116.48 | +7.8% | Jul 23, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $130 | $116.66 | +12.1% | Jun 11, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $125 | $117.05 | +7.8% | Jun 11, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Alexia Howard | $137 | $115.78 | +18.2% | Jun 10, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $115 | $112.39 | -0.8% | Jun 10, 2026 |
| BTIG | Analyst unavailable | $130 | $112.39 | +12.1% | Jun 10, 2026 |
| Coker Palmer | Thomas Palmer | $125 | $112.39 | +7.8% | Jun 10, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Megan Alexander Clapp | $110 | $112.39 | -5.1% | Jun 10, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Nik Modi | $135 | $112.39 | +16.4% | Jun 10, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $132 | $112.39 | +13.8% | Jun 10, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $106 | $101.12 | -8.6% | Jun 5, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Steve Powers | $95 | $100.38 | -18.1% | May 20, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $117 | $99.58 | +0.9% | May 15, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $134 | $96.97 | +15.6% | May 4, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $104 | $94.99 | -10.3% | Apr 23, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $100 | $96.14 | -13.8% | Apr 21, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $103 | $91.04 | -11.2% | Apr 14, 2026 |
| BTIG | Rob Dickerson | $120 | $89.53 | +3.5% | Apr 13, 2026 |
| BNP Paribas | Analyst unavailable | $125 | $92.47 | +7.8% | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Chris Carey | $125 | $93.79 | +7.8% | Apr 8, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Megan Clapp | $105 | $104.78 | -9.4% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| UBS | Peter Grom | $117 | $100.38 | +0.9% | Nov 26, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $115 | $100.38 | -0.8% | Nov 26, 2025 |
| Bernstein | Analyst unavailable | $113 | $100.38 | -2.5% | Nov 26, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $110 | $100.38 | -5.1% | Nov 26, 2025 |
| UBS | Peter Grom | $120 | $103.61 | +3.5% | Nov 24, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $115 | $102.59 | -0.8% | Oct 24, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $121 | $106.72 | +4.4% | Aug 28, 2025 |
| D.A. Davidson | Analyst unavailable | $112 | $106.72 | -3.4% | Aug 28, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $120 | $94.41 | +3.5% | Jun 10, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $119 | $112.09 | +2.6% | Mar 3, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Rob Dickerson | $116 | $118.46 | +0.0% | Nov 18, 2024 |
| Barclays | Andrew Lazar | $121 | $113.79 | +4.4% | Aug 30, 2024 |
| Coker Palmer | Thomas Palmer | $136 | $113.79 | +17.3% | Aug 29, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Thomas Palmer | $138 | $120.93 | +19.0% | Aug 20, 2024 |
| Argus Research | Taylor Conrad | $135 | $110.13 | +16.4% | Jun 13, 2024 |
| Bernstein | Alexia Howard | $121 | $115 | +4.4% | Jun 7, 2024 |
| Coker Palmer | Thomas Palmer | $139 | $115.37 | +19.9% | Jun 6, 2024 |
| CFRA | Arun Sundaram | $131 | $115.43 | +13.0% | Jun 6, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Michael Kaye | $140 | $116.42 | +20.7% | Jun 6, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Ken Goldman | $128 | $116.94 | +10.4% | Jun 6, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Matthew Smith | $135 | $116.94 | +16.4% | Jun 6, 2024 |
| Coker Palmer | Thomas Palmer | $137 | $116.94 | +18.2% | Jun 6, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Rob Dickerson | $121 | $110.4 | +4.4% | May 23, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Faiza Alwy | $129 | $115.21 | +11.3% | May 20, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Jason English | $131 | $116.35 | +13.0% | Dec 5, 2023 |
| Deutsche Bank | Steve Powers | $153 | $140.4 | +32.0% | Sep 8, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Pamela Kaufman | $158 | $155.82 | +36.3% | Dec 20, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Robert Moskow | $165 | $154.27 | +42.3% | Dec 15, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Christopher Growe | $155 | $154.17 | +33.7% | Dec 15, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Faiza Alwy | $131 | $122.22 | +13.0% | Jun 20, 2022 |
| Citigroup | Wendy Nicholson | $131 | $130.7 | +13.0% | Mar 2, 2022 |
| Bernstein | Alexia Howard | $114 | $131.34 | -1.7% | Nov 24, 2021 |
| Barclays | Andrew Lazar | $140 | $131.34 | +20.7% | Nov 24, 2021 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Christopher Growe | $136 | $132.66 | +17.3% | Nov 23, 2021 |
Track every rating change on SJM the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationThe J. M. Smucker Company is an international enterprise specializing in the production and marketing of a diverse portfolio of branded food and beverage items. Its operations are organized into three principal U.S. retail divisions: Pet Foods, Coffee, and Consumer Foods. The company's extensive product offerings encompass various coffee options, including roast, ground, single-serve, and premium blends; a wide selection of spreads such as peanut butter and fruit preserves; cooking staples like shortening and oils; convenient frozen sandwiches and snacks; and a full range of pet food and treats.…
Historical context
All SJM earningsConsumer Defensive peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MKC McCormick & Company, Incorporated | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +13.9% | -4.9% | McCormick reports strong Q3 growth while U.S. volumes remain soft |
| CAG Conagra Brands, Inc. | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +44.4% | -4.9% | Conagra maintains outlook while increasing brand investment and simplifying SKUs |
| COST Costco Wholesale Corporation | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +3.2% | +2.9% | Costco’s growth broadens as warehouses and digital sales accelerate |
| GIS General Mills, Inc. | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +4.6% | +1.0% | General Mills leans on mix, innovation and e-commerce amid pressure |
| KR The Kroger Co. | FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +2.8% | +2.7% | Kroger: Strong digital growth offsets softer sales outlook |
| CPB Campbell Soup Company | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +1.1% | -7.0% | Campbell’s leans on savings and innovation amid pressured demand |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- ACNFY2026 Q4 · October 1, 2026+3.5% EPS+15.8% move
- MKCFY2026 Q3 · October 1, 2026+13.9% EPS-4.9% move
- NKEFY2027 Q1 · October 1, 2026+10.0% EPS-0.7% move
- CAGFY2027 Q1 · September 30, 2026+44.4% EPS-4.9% move
- FDSFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+3.9% EPS+3.8% move
- JBLFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+8.1% EPS-10.0% move
Get the SJM recap when the next report posts
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:36:15.940040+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-02T05:46:07.185328+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-02T05:46:07.182325+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-02. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.