Shopify Inc. · SHOP · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026

Shopify’s Q1 Growth Holds Strong as AI Tools Gain Traction

Shopify’s Q1 results support a constructive view that merchant demand and expanding product utility are sustaining growth. AI-related adoption is a potential productivity and distribution driver, but its contribution to durable economics remains unproven.

Reported Before market openNASDAQTechnology $185.01B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $0.36 Consensus $0.33
EPS surprise +10.4% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $3.11B Consensus $3.06B
Revenue surprise +1.4% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move -15.6% Event window
SPY move +0.8% Same window
Abnormal move -16.4% Stock minus SPY
Volume 5.2× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +4.9% Up to 20 sessions
SHOPSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

The call emphasized continued strong GMV and revenue growth, faster adoption of Sidekick and Pulse, and accelerating enterprise adoption. Management also highlighted strong international activity and gave a Q2 outlook for continued growth with operating expenses improving as a share of revenue.

Guidance delta

Management maintained a growth-oriented outlook, guiding for Q2 revenue growth in the high-20% range, an improving operating-expense ratio, and a mid-teens free-cash-flow margin. This compares with the prior quarter’s Q1 revenue-growth outlook in the low-30% range.

Key takeaways

  • Management described Q1 as a record quarter, with GMV and revenue growth both strong.
  • Sidekick and Pulse adoption, AI-driven traffic, and new merchant-created apps point to growing product engagement.
  • Enterprise adoption and international activity remain important growth contributors.
  • Management expects Q2 growth to continue while operating expenses improve as a share of revenue.

Management priorities

  • Scale AI infrastructure and Sidekick/Pulse features.
  • Expand Shopify Payments and Shop Pay globally.
  • Develop the UCP partner ecosystem.
  • Strengthen enterprise sales and services.
  • Grow the financial-services suite.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
SHOP REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $2B Q4 '23 actual $2B, beat Q1 '24 estimate $2B Q1 '24 actual $2B, beat Q2 '24 estimate $2B Q2 '24 actual $2B, beat Q2 '25 estimate $3B Q2 '25 actual $3B, beat Q3 '25 estimate $3B Q3 '25 actual $3B, beat Q4 '25 estimate $4B Q4 '25 actual $4B, beat Q1 '26 estimate $3B Q1 '26 actual $3B, beat Q2 '26 estimate $3B Q2 '26 actual $4B, beat Q3 '26 estimate $4B Q3 '26 actual $4B, miss Q4 '26 estimate $5B Q1 '27 estimate $4B Q2 '27 estimate $5B Q3 '27 estimate $5B
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy63 ratings
Bullish4266.7%
Neutral1828.6%
Bearish34.7%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$142.57Previous close
$46Low
$136.84Average
$210High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Nov 4, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Keybanc Overweight OverweightMaintainNov 2, 2026
Citigroup Buy BuyMaintainOct 28, 2026
Oppenheimer Outperform OutperformMaintainOct 23, 2026
RBC Capital Outperform OutperformMaintainOct 16, 2026
Baird Outperform OutperformMaintainOct 14, 2026
Show 58 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $142.57. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
D.A. DavidsonGil Luria$180$142.6 +26.3%Nov 3, 2026
OppenheimerAnalyst unavailable$205$168.81 +43.8%Oct 23, 2026
Robert W. BairdAnalyst unavailable$190$176.52 +33.3%Oct 14, 2026
Stifel NicolausParker Lane$210$176.52 +47.3%Oct 14, 2026
Cantor FitzgeraldAnalyst unavailable$158$170.85 +10.8%Oct 12, 2026
See 164 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Shopify Inc. functions as a premier commerce technology company, providing an extensive platform and associated services to empower businesses worldwide. Its reach extends across Canada, the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific region, and Latin America. The company's robust platform equips merchants to effectively display, organize, market, and sell their merchandise through a multitude of sales avenues. These include digital storefronts accessible via web and mobile, traditional brick-and-mortar stores, temporary pop-up locations, integrated social media channels, proprietary mobile applications, embeddable "buy buttons," and established online marketplaces.…

Historical context

All SHOP earnings

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Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-11-04T08:40:45.869821+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-11-04T08:40:45.867023+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-11-04. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.