Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusBuy34 ratings
Bullish1955.9%
Neutral1544.1%
Bearish00.0%
Republic Services, Inc. · RSG · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026
Republic Services: Pricing and Projects Support 2026 Outlook
The supplied analysis supports a constructive but qualified view: pricing power, acquisitions, digital efficiency and sustainability projects can support growth, while volume pressure and execution risks test that trajectory.
Reported After market closeNYSEIndustrials
$64.57B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$1.76
Consensus $1.62
EPS surprise
+8.6%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$4.14B
Consensus $4.21B
Revenue surprise
-1.7%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
-2.0%
Event window
SPY move
+0.5%
Same window
Abnormal move
-2.5%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.9×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+2.4%
Up to 20 sessions
RSGSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about RSG FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did RSG fall 2.0% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in RSG's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for RSG after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Relative to the prior-quarter analysis, management moved from discussing future guidance to a maintained 2026 outlook. The current analysis adds quantified priorities around acquisitions, EV expansion, RNG projects and polymer-center contribution while retaining volume and commodity-price concerns.
Guidance delta
Management maintained its 2026 outlook; the supplied analysis describes modest top-line and adjusted EBITDA growth, supported by pricing, acquisitions and efficiency initiatives.
Key takeaways
- Management described 2025 as a year of revenue growth, adjusted EBITDA growth and margin expansion.
- The 2026 outlook relies on pricing, a roughly $1 billion acquisition pipeline and digital efficiency initiatives.
- Volume softness and recycled commodity-price volatility remain the main operating headwinds.
Management priorities
- Execute strategic acquisitions across recycling, waste and environmental solutions.
- Expand RNG projects, polymer centers and the electric collection-vehicle fleet.
- Use AI-enabled routing, the RISE platform and cost control to support efficiency and margins.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$206.98Current
$140Low
$233.83Average
$270High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 1, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Aug 7, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Argus Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | May 11, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 8, 2026 |
| Baird | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 16, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Apr 10, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Mar 18, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Feb 18, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Feb 18, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 23, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Perform | Sector Perform | Maintain | Jan 21, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jan 5, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Dec 22, 2025 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 31, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 22, 2025 |
| Truist Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 22, 2025 |
| CIBC | Sector Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Mar 4, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 18, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 23, 2025 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Dec 10, 2024 |
| TD Cowen | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Aug 5, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Apr 29, 2019 |
| KeyBanc | Equal Weight | Sector Weight | Maintain | Feb 5, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 24, 2018 |
| Argus | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 10, 2018 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Feb 12, 2018 |
| Macquarie | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 25, 2016 |
| Sterne Agee CRT | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Mar 22, 2016 |
| Imperial Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jun 5, 2014 |
| Wedbush | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Nov 4, 2013 |
| Wunderlich Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 31, 2013 |
| Wunderlich | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 31, 2013 |
| BB&T Capital | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Mar 13, 2013 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $206.98. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Jon Windham | $235 | $216.85 | +13.5% | Aug 11, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $232 | $217.57 | +12.1% | Aug 7, 2026 |
| UBS | Jon Windham | $223 | $197.73 | +7.7% | May 12, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $233 | $200.02 | +12.6% | May 11, 2026 |
| CIBC | Kevin Chiang | $249 | $200.48 | +20.3% | May 8, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $227 | $219.5 | +9.7% | Feb 23, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $248 | $211.33 | +19.8% | Feb 18, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $225 | $212.45 | +8.7% | Feb 18, 2026 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $255 | $215.75 | +23.2% | Jan 23, 2026 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $242 | $212.97 | +16.9% | Jan 21, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $236 | $210.96 | +14.0% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $220 | $210.2 | +6.3% | Jan 5, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Adam Bubes | $255 | $219 | +23.2% | Nov 24, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Jerry Revich | $238 | $206.02 | +15.0% | Nov 13, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Stephanie Moore | $248 | $205.28 | +19.8% | Nov 3, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Patrick Tyler Brown | $240 | $206.35 | +16.0% | Oct 31, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $246 | $208.68 | +18.9% | Oct 31, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | Analyst unavailable | $240 | $209.62 | +16.0% | Oct 31, 2025 |
| Oppenheimer | Analyst unavailable | $256 | $209.92 | +23.7% | Oct 31, 2025 |
| UBS | Jon Windham | $240 | $221.03 | +16.0% | Oct 16, 2025 |
| Scotiabank | Analyst unavailable | $250 | $225.16 | +20.8% | Oct 10, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $260 | $224.15 | +25.6% | Oct 6, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $257 | $229.06 | +24.2% | Sep 29, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $240 | $226.71 | +16.0% | Sep 18, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $284 | $231.69 | +37.2% | Jul 30, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $260 | $231.69 | +25.6% | Jul 30, 2025 |
| Seaport Global | JOhn Mazzoni | $270 | $250.85 | +30.4% | May 6, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $266 | $243.56 | +28.5% | Apr 25, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $245 | $243.56 | +18.4% | Apr 25, 2025 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Manthey | $245 | $243.56 | +18.4% | Apr 25, 2025 |
| CIBC | Analyst unavailable | $264 | $235.76 | +27.5% | Mar 5, 2025 |
| Argus Research | John Eade | $260 | $231.37 | +25.6% | Feb 18, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Stephanie Moore | $235 | $198.81 | +13.5% | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Tobey Sommer | $244 | $202.32 | +17.9% | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Oppenheimer | Noah Kaye | $220 | $204.31 | +6.3% | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Oppenheimer | Noah Kaye | $219 | $204.69 | +5.8% | Oct 21, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Devin Dodge | $211 | $189.33 | +1.9% | Jul 25, 2024 |
| Deutsche Bank | Faiza Alwy | $203 | $186.48 | -1.9% | May 22, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Michael Hoffman | $210 | $185.98 | +1.5% | May 21, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Jeffrey Silber | $202 | $182.84 | -2.4% | May 1, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Walter Spracklin | $201 | $183.11 | -2.9% | May 1, 2024 |
| Robert W. Baird | David Manthey | $203 | $191.76 | -1.9% | Apr 23, 2024 |
| RBC Capital | Walter Spracklin | $198 | $188.4 | -4.3% | Apr 8, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Toni Kaplan | $193 | $186.31 | -6.8% | Mar 15, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $144 | $128.68 | -30.4% | Jan 4, 2023 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $148 | $136.9 | -28.5% | Dec 7, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Stephanie Moore | $165 | $134.56 | -20.3% | Oct 24, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Patrick Tyler Brown | $155 | $142.82 | -25.1% | Aug 8, 2022 |
| Bank of America Securities | Michael Feniger | $140 | $133.7 | -32.4% | Oct 29, 2021 |
| Oppenheimer | Noah Kaye | $124 | $117.12 | -40.1% | Jul 30, 2021 |
Track every rating change on RSG the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationRepublic Services, Inc., along with its subsidiaries, delivers comprehensive environmental services across the United States. The company specializes in the collection and processing of recyclable materials, alongside the gathering, transfer, and responsible disposal of non-hazardous solid waste, in addition to other environmental solutions. Its collection activities encompass curbside pickups, facilitating transport to transfer stations, landfills, or recycling facilities; the provision of waste and recycling containers; and compactor rentals. Beyond collection, Republic Services engages in the processing and sale of commodities such as old corrugated containers, newsprint, aluminum, and glass.…
Historical context
All RSG earningsIndustrials peers this season
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|---|---|---|---|---|
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| CPRT Copart, Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | -8.7% | -2.6% | Copart pairs international growth with ACV investment amid higher costs |
| SUNB Sunbelt Rentals Holdings Inc | FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +19.2% | +5.9% | Sunbelt raises FY27 outlook as specialty rental demand accelerates |
| FRO Frontline Plc | FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +8.0% | +1.0% | Frontline posts a record quarter as tanker rates remain elevated |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- CAGFY2027 Q1 · September 30, 2026+44.4% EPS-4.9% move
- FDSFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+3.9% EPS+3.8% move
- JBLFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+8.1% EPS-10.0% move
- MUFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+5.4% EPS+0.0% move
- CCLFY2026 Q3 · September 29, 2026+5.9% EPS+13.4% move
- COSTFY2026 Q4 · September 24, 2026+3.2% EPS+2.9% move
Get the RSG recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:36:15.940040+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-01T20:36:04.715054+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-01T20:36:04.712172+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-01. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.