Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold51 ratings
Bullish2447.0%
Neutral2141.2%
Bearish611.8%
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. · RCL · FY2026 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026
Royal Caribbean Beats EPS Estimates as Caribbean Demand Powers Record Q1
Royal Caribbean entered FY2026 with momentum from a record 2025 ($18B revenue, 33% EPS growth) and delivered a Q1 that beat on the bottom line while revenue landed essentially flat versus consensus. The 11% revenue growth and record 2.5 million vacations delivered were driven primarily by strong Caribbean pricing and a record WAVE season, which offset modest moderation in Mediterranean and West Coast Mexico itineraries tied to geopolitical tensions. Management maintained full-year guidance for double-digit revenue and earnings growth, consistent with the prior quarter's maintained stance. The market responded favorably: the stock rose 3.8% on the report versus a 1.0% benchmark move, with a further 7.9% drift over subsequent weeks on 2.1x baseline volume. The combination of an EPS beat, maintained guidance, expanding repeat-guest share (~40%, up from ~one-third), and a growing…
Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Cyclical
$86.49B market cap
100quality score
Company context
Snapshot as of publicationRoyal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. is a prominent global operator within the cruise sector. The company manages several well-known cruise lines, such as Royal Caribbean International, Celebrity Cruises, Azamara, and Silversea Cruises. Through these brands, it offers a wide array of voyages that call upon approximately 1,000 different destinations across the globe. As of February 25, 2022, its expansive fleet comprised 61 vessels. Established in 1968, the company's corporate headquarters are situated in Miami, Florida.
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$3.60
Consensus $3
EPS surprise
+11.1%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$4.45B
Consensus $4.46B
Revenue surprise
-0.3%
Reported versus consensus
Earnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$322.5Previous close
$47Low
$286.17Average
$425High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Jul 29, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 21, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jun 22, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | May 26, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Hold | Hold | Maintain | May 22, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 15, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 14, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | May 1, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Apr 8, 2026 |
| Tigress Financial | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 2, 2026 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 22, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 12, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Positive | Positive | Maintain | Jul 30, 2025 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 2, 2025 |
| Loop Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 3, 2025 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 9, 2025 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 29, 2025 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 5, 2023 |
| Deutsche Bank | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Feb 8, 2023 |
| Berenberg | Hold | Sell | Upgrade | Dec 10, 2021 |
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Peer Perform | Upgrade | Jun 16, 2021 |
| Redburn Partners | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jun 22, 2020 |
| Redburn | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jun 22, 2020 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 20, 2020 |
| Nomura | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 8, 2020 |
| CFRA | Sell | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 10, 2020 |
| Buckingham Research | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 3, 2020 |
| Buckingham | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 3, 2020 |
| Argus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Aug 13, 2019 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 26, 2019 |
| Wedbush | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 2, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 26, 2018 |
| SpareBank 1 Markets | Sell | Neutral | Downgrade | Jun 10, 2015 |
| Sparebank | Sell | Neutral | Downgrade | Jun 10, 2015 |
| Danske Bank | Hold | Sell | Upgrade | May 6, 2015 |
| Carnegie | Hold | Sell | Upgrade | Apr 23, 2015 |
| Pareto Securities | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | Mar 25, 2015 |
| Norne Securities | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 26, 2015 |
| Natixis | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 12, 2015 |
| Handelsbanken | Accumulate | Buy | Maintain | Dec 23, 2014 |
| DNB Markets | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | Dec 18, 2014 |
| Swedbank | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 10, 2014 |
| Longbow Research | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Oct 4, 2013 |
| Raymond James | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Feb 5, 2013 |
| ABG Sundal Collier | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | Jan 31, 2013 |
| RS Platou Markets | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jan 16, 2013 |
| Topeka Capital | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 26, 2012 |
| Topeka | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 26, 2012 |
| Fondsfinans | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 16, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $322.5. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMO Capital | Tristan Thomas-Martin | $370 | $282.26 | +14.7% | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $361 | $312.51 | +11.9% | Jun 22, 2026 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Analyst unavailable | $304 | $284.63 | -5.7% | Jun 1, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $280 | $256.1 | -13.2% | May 26, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $297 | $260.32 | -7.9% | May 22, 2026 |
| UBS | Robin Farley | $309 | $267.71 | -4.2% | May 14, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $380 | $266.14 | +17.8% | May 1, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $296 | $263.76 | -8.2% | May 1, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $410 | $263.76 | +27.1% | May 1, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $360 | $263.76 | +11.6% | May 1, 2026 |
| Barclays | Brandt Montour | $340 | $263.76 | +5.4% | May 1, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Trey Bowers | $349 | $281.53 | +8.2% | Apr 15, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $321 | $282.41 | -0.5% | Apr 14, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $351 | $276.31 | +8.8% | Apr 10, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $310 | $275.89 | -3.9% | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $377 | $279.26 | +16.9% | Apr 8, 2026 |
| Tigress Financial | Analyst unavailable | $425 | $344.95 | +31.8% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $330 | $339.27 | +2.3% | Feb 3, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Trey Bowers | $383 | $324.65 | +18.8% | Feb 1, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Steven Wieczynski | $420 | $345.98 | +30.2% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $379 | $345.98 | +17.5% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Richard Clarke | $380 | $345.98 | +17.8% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $370 | $345.98 | +14.7% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Jefferies | David Katz | $334 | $345.98 | +3.6% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Barclays | Brandt Montour | $361 | $345.98 | +11.9% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $310 | $285.55 | -3.9% | Jan 23, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Patrick Scholes | $318 | $277.77 | -1.4% | Jan 22, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $381 | $275.45 | +18.1% | Jan 22, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $380 | $276.01 | +17.8% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Trey Bowers | $373 | $301.13 | +15.7% | Jan 13, 2026 |
| Barclays | Brandt Montour | $324 | $281.51 | +0.5% | Dec 17, 2025 |
| Jefferies | David Katz | $275 | $278.7 | -14.7% | Dec 15, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $275 | $252.41 | -14.7% | Dec 9, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Patrick Scholes | $321 | $266.6 | -0.5% | Dec 2, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $360 | $285.15 | +11.6% | Oct 31, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Christopher Stathoulopoulos | $350 | $286.14 | +8.5% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Steven Wieczynski | $400 | $286.92 | +24.0% | Oct 29, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $342 | $292.95 | +6.0% | Oct 29, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Ben Chaiken | $362 | $300.31 | +12.2% | Oct 20, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $333 | $327.82 | +3.3% | Sep 19, 2025 |
| UBS | Robin Farley | $353 | $305.72 | +9.5% | Aug 8, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Patrick Scholes | $337 | $333.96 | +4.5% | Jul 30, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $385 | $331.15 | +19.4% | Jul 30, 2025 |
| UBS | Robin Farley | $311 | $249.2 | -3.6% | May 20, 2025 |
| BNP Paribas | Analyst unavailable | $262 | $217.24 | -18.8% | Mar 27, 2025 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Laura Champine | $250 | $263.59 | -22.5% | Feb 4, 2025 |
| Argus Research | John Staszak | $280 | $228.92 | -13.2% | Jan 3, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Patrick Scholes | $272 | $246.16 | -15.7% | Dec 2, 2024 |
| Macquarie | Paul Golding | $250 | $208.36 | -22.5% | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Lizzie Dove | $245 | $208.36 | -24.0% | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Ben Chaiken | $224 | $207.57 | -30.5% | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Barclays | Brandt Montour | $245 | $210.1 | -24.0% | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Steven Wieczynski | $250 | $210.1 | -22.5% | Oct 29, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Steven Wieczynski | $230 | $195.69 | -28.7% | Oct 11, 2024 |
| Citigroup | James Hardiman | $253 | $183.39 | -21.6% | Oct 9, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Patrick Scholes | $204 | $177.41 | -36.7% | Sep 26, 2024 |
| Argus Research | John Staszak | $172 | $150.13 | -46.7% | May 29, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Daniel Politzer | $165 | $142.86 | -48.8% | May 17, 2024 |
| Macquarie | Paul Golding | $165 | $137.47 | -48.8% | Apr 25, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Ben Chaiken | $164 | $126.6 | -49.1% | Apr 17, 2024 |
| Barclays | Brandt Montour | $154 | $130.9 | -52.2% | Apr 11, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Lizzie Dove | $162 | $132.11 | -49.8% | Mar 13, 2024 |
| Credit Suisse | Benjamin Chaiken | $104 | $75.61 | -67.8% | May 5, 2023 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $85 | $74.79 | -73.6% | Feb 8, 2023 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $65 | $74.01 | -79.8% | Feb 8, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $50 | $58.42 | -84.5% | Jan 10, 2023 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $82 | $56.77 | -74.6% | Jan 9, 2023 |
| J.P. Morgan | Analyst unavailable | $47 | $56.78 | -85.4% | Dec 6, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $62 | $58.76 | -80.8% | Nov 22, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $67 | $57.46 | -79.2% | Nov 21, 2022 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $76 | $58.07 | -76.4% | Nov 14, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $58 | $50.68 | -82.0% | Sep 20, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $70 | $51.87 | -78.3% | Sep 19, 2022 |
| Barclays | Brandt Montour | $61 | $50.44 | -81.1% | Sep 19, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $40 | $37.4 | -87.6% | Jul 29, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Chris Woronka | $50 | $35.29 | -84.5% | Jul 2, 2022 |
| Barclays | Brandt Montour | $56 | $40.14 | -82.6% | Jun 28, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $54 | $55.89 | -83.3% | Jun 8, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Patrick Scholes | $65 | $55.41 | -79.8% | May 23, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $75 | $59.94 | -76.7% | May 11, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $59 | $62.52 | -81.7% | May 11, 2022 |
| UBS | Robin Farley | $86 | $60.92 | -73.3% | May 11, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $76 | $69.94 | -76.4% | May 6, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Steven Wieczynski | $118 | $76.18 | -63.4% | Mar 19, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Brandt Montour | $111 | $78.1 | -65.6% | Aug 5, 2021 |
| UBS | Robin M. Farley | $118 | $78.46 | -63.4% | May 13, 2021 |
| Goldman Sachs | Stephen Grambling | $95 | $84.69 | -70.5% | Apr 21, 2021 |
Track every rating change on RCL the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeMarket reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+3.8%
Event window
SPY move
+1.0%
Same window
Abnormal move
+2.8%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.1×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+7.9%
Up to 20 sessions
RCLSPY benchmark
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Try FN2 freeTranscript intelligence
What changed
Adjusted EPS of $3.60 beat the $3.24 consensus by 11.1%, while revenue of $4.452B narrowly missed the $4.464B estimate (-0.27%). Revenue grew 11% year-over-year with a record 2.5 million vacations delivered in Q1. Caribbean demand and pricing remained strong, while Mediterranean and West Coast Mexico itineraries saw modest moderation from geopolitical tensions. Fuel hedging covers approximately 60% of 2026 consumption, but current fuel prices create a $0.62 per share headwind. Repeat guests now represent about 40% of the customer base, up from roughly one-third previously. Capital returns of $1.1 billion were executed in the quarter with continued share repurchases. The stock rose 3.8% on the report (benchmark +1.0%), with 7.9% subsequent drift on 2.1x normal volume.
Guidance delta
Management maintained full-year guidance for double-digit revenue and earnings growth, unchanged from the prior quarter's maintained guidance sentiment. The prior quarter (FY2025 Q4) had flagged yield guidance of 1.5-3.5% with roughly two-thirds of 2026 capacity already booked and yields modestly above guidance. This quarter's record WAVE season and continued Caribbean pricing strength are consistent with that trajectory. No upward or downward revision was indicated. New ship deliveries (Icon VI, Icon VII, Legend of the Seas) and destination openings (Royal Beach Club Santorini, Cozumel in early 2028, Perfect Day Mexico soft opening Q4 2027) are expected to underpin future yield growth.
Key takeaways
- EPS of $3.60 beat consensus by 11.1%; revenue of $4.45B was essentially inline (-0.27% miss).
- 11% revenue growth and a record 2.5 million vacations delivered in Q1.
- Caribbean demand and pricing power offset softer Mediterranean and Mexico itineraries.
- Repeat guests now ~40% of the customer base, up from ~one-third, driven by loyalty programs and AI personalization.
- $1.1B returned to shareholders in the quarter; share repurchases continue.
- Stock rose 3.8% on the report with 7.9% subsequent drift, on 2.1x normal volume.
Management priorities
- New ship deliveries: Icon VI, Icon VII, and Legend of the Seas.
- Destination expansion: Royal Beach Club Santorini (now open), Cozumel (early 2028), Perfect Day Mexico (soft opening Q4 2027, full launch 2028).
- Loyalty ecosystem growth, including the Royal ONE co-branded credit card and industry-first status match program.
- AI and technology integration across booking, pricing, and onboard guest experience.
- Continued capital returns via share repurchases alongside dividend payments.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-29T08:43:20.717793+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-29T08:43:20.715091+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.