Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold52 ratings
Bullish2751.9%
Neutral1936.6%
Bearish611.5%
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. · RCL · FY2025 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2025
Royal Caribbean raises outlook as demand and new capacity remain strong
The current analysis supports a constructive operating thesis: strong close-in demand, premium pricing, new capacity, private destinations, and loyalty engagement are supporting growth. The thesis is not risk-free; its durability depends on managing ship timing, costs, capacity, and consumer spending without relying on heavier discounting.
Reported Before market openNYSEConsumer Cyclical
$75.70B market cap
80quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
—
Consensus $2.52
EPS surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
—
Consensus $4.02B
Revenue surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+0.1%
Event window
SPY move
+0.6%
Same window
Abnormal move
-0.5%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.5×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+15.8%
Up to 20 sessions
RCLSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about RCL FY2025 Q1
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove RCL's +0.1% move after FY2025 Q1 earnings?What changed in RCL's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q1?Give me the bull and bear case for RCL after FY2025 Q1 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Compared with the prior analysis, management's outlook is more positive: guidance sentiment moved from maintained to raised, with stronger emphasis on the best WAVE season, premium demand, loyalty contribution, and new-ship and destination growth. The current analysis also makes the Q3 ship-timing yield headwind and pricing-pressure concerns more explicit.
Guidance delta
Raised; management guides to full-year EPS of $14.55-$15.55 and yield growth of 2.6%-4.6%.
Key takeaways
- Q1 adjusted EPS of $2.71 exceeded guidance, while net yield increased 5.6% year over year.
- Management raised full-year EPS guidance and cited its best WAVE season in company history.
- New ships, private destinations, loyalty programs, and technology investments remain central growth initiatives.
- Loyalty members represent about 40% of bookings and spend more per trip, supporting premium demand.
- New-ship timing, macro uncertainty, and potential pricing pressure remain the main offsets.
Management priorities
- Deliver and ramp new ships, including Star of the Seas and Celebrity Xcel.
- Expand exclusive private destinations and continue the Celebrity River rollout.
- Build an integrated loyalty ecosystem across ocean and river brands.
- Invest in AI-enabled yield management and a customer-centric travel platform.
- Maintain balance-sheet strength while funding growth and shareholder returns.
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Estimate
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Miss
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Analyst 52W Price Targets
$282.26Current
$47Low
$289.5Average
$425High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 11, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jefferies | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Oct 8, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 7, 2026 |
| Tigress Financial | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 28, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Sep 28, 2026 |
| Truist Securities | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Sep 24, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 24, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 23, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Equal Weight | Maintain | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Positive | Positive | Maintain | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Stifel | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 29, 2026 |
| TD Cowen | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 15, 2026 |
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 14, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 2, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jan 22, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jan 12, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Jul 2, 2025 |
| Loop Capital | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jun 3, 2025 |
| Macquarie | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 9, 2025 |
| Argus Research | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jan 29, 2025 |
| Credit Suisse | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 5, 2023 |
| Berenberg | Hold | Sell | Upgrade | Dec 10, 2021 |
| Wolfe Research | Outperform | Peer Perform | Upgrade | Jun 16, 2021 |
| Redburn Partners | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jun 22, 2020 |
| Redburn | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jun 22, 2020 |
| SunTrust Robinson Humphrey | Buy | Buy | Maintain | May 20, 2020 |
| Nomura | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Apr 8, 2020 |
| CFRA | Sell | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 10, 2020 |
| Buckingham Research | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 3, 2020 |
| Buckingham | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 3, 2020 |
| Argus | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Aug 13, 2019 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 26, 2019 |
| Wedbush | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | May 2, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 26, 2018 |
| SpareBank 1 Markets | Sell | Neutral | Downgrade | Jun 10, 2015 |
| Sparebank | Sell | Neutral | Downgrade | Jun 10, 2015 |
| Danske Bank | Hold | Sell | Upgrade | May 6, 2015 |
| Carnegie | Hold | Sell | Upgrade | Apr 23, 2015 |
| Pareto Securities | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | Mar 25, 2015 |
| Norne Securities | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 26, 2015 |
| Natixis | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 12, 2015 |
| Handelsbanken | Accumulate | Buy | Maintain | Dec 23, 2014 |
| DNB Markets | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | Dec 18, 2014 |
| Swedbank | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 10, 2014 |
| Longbow Research | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Oct 4, 2013 |
| Raymond James | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Feb 5, 2013 |
| ABG Sundal Collier | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | Jan 31, 2013 |
| RS Platou Markets | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jan 16, 2013 |
| Topeka Capital | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 26, 2012 |
| Topeka | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Oct 26, 2012 |
| Fondsfinans | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Apr 16, 2012 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $282.26. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jefferies | David Katz | $330 | $282.36 | +16.9% | Oct 8, 2026 |
| Barclays | Brandt Montour | $337 | $288.85 | +19.4% | Oct 7, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $299 | $242.7 | +5.9% | Sep 28, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Patrick Scholes | $298 | $234.64 | +5.6% | Sep 24, 2026 |
| UBS | Robin Farley | $367 | $322.94 | +30.0% | Aug 3, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $300 | $323.58 | +6.3% | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Susquehanna | Christopher Stathoulopoulos | $372 | $322.5 | +31.8% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $415 | $322.5 | +47.0% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Trey Bowers | $388 | $322.5 | +37.5% | Jul 29, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Tristan Thomas-Martin | $370 | $282.26 | +31.1% | Jul 7, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $361 | $312.51 | +27.9% | Jun 22, 2026 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Analyst unavailable | $304 | $284.63 | +7.7% | Jun 1, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $280 | $256.1 | -0.8% | May 26, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $297 | $260.32 | +5.2% | May 22, 2026 |
| UBS | Robin Farley | $309 | $267.71 | +9.5% | May 14, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $380 | $266.14 | +34.6% | May 1, 2026 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $296 | $263.76 | +4.9% | May 1, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $410 | $263.76 | +45.3% | May 1, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $360 | $263.76 | +27.5% | May 1, 2026 |
| Barclays | Brandt Montour | $340 | $263.76 | +20.5% | May 1, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Trey Bowers | $349 | $281.53 | +23.6% | Apr 15, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $321 | $282.41 | +13.7% | Apr 14, 2026 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $351 | $276.31 | +24.4% | Apr 10, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $310 | $275.89 | +9.8% | Apr 9, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $377 | $279.26 | +33.6% | Apr 8, 2026 |
| Tigress Financial | Analyst unavailable | $425 | $344.95 | +50.6% | Feb 6, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $330 | $339.27 | +16.9% | Feb 3, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Trey Bowers | $383 | $324.65 | +35.7% | Feb 1, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Steven Wieczynski | $420 | $345.98 | +48.8% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $379 | $345.98 | +34.3% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Bernstein | Richard Clarke | $380 | $345.98 | +34.6% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $370 | $345.98 | +31.1% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Jefferies | David Katz | $334 | $345.98 | +18.3% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Barclays | Brandt Montour | $361 | $345.98 | +27.9% | Jan 30, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $310 | $285.55 | +9.8% | Jan 23, 2026 |
| Truist Financial | Patrick Scholes | $318 | $277.77 | +12.7% | Jan 22, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $381 | $275.45 | +35.0% | Jan 22, 2026 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $380 | $276.01 | +34.6% | Jan 20, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Trey Bowers | $373 | $301.13 | +32.1% | Jan 13, 2026 |
| Barclays | Brandt Montour | $324 | $281.51 | +14.8% | Dec 17, 2025 |
| Jefferies | David Katz | $275 | $278.7 | -2.6% | Dec 15, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $275 | $252.41 | -2.6% | Dec 9, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Patrick Scholes | $321 | $266.6 | +13.7% | Dec 2, 2025 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $360 | $285.15 | +27.5% | Oct 31, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Christopher Stathoulopoulos | $350 | $286.14 | +24.0% | Oct 30, 2025 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Steven Wieczynski | $400 | $286.92 | +41.7% | Oct 29, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $342 | $292.95 | +21.2% | Oct 29, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Ben Chaiken | $362 | $300.31 | +28.3% | Oct 20, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $333 | $327.82 | +18.0% | Sep 19, 2025 |
| UBS | Robin Farley | $353 | $305.72 | +25.1% | Aug 8, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Patrick Scholes | $337 | $333.96 | +19.4% | Jul 30, 2025 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $385 | $331.15 | +36.4% | Jul 30, 2025 |
| UBS | Robin Farley | $311 | $249.2 | +10.2% | May 20, 2025 |
| BNP Paribas | Analyst unavailable | $262 | $217.24 | -7.2% | Mar 27, 2025 |
| Loop Capital Markets | Laura Champine | $250 | $263.59 | -11.4% | Feb 4, 2025 |
| Argus Research | John Staszak | $280 | $228.92 | -0.8% | Jan 3, 2025 |
| Truist Financial | Patrick Scholes | $272 | $246.16 | -3.6% | Dec 2, 2024 |
| Macquarie | Paul Golding | $250 | $208.36 | -11.4% | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Lizzie Dove | $245 | $208.36 | -13.2% | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Ben Chaiken | $224 | $207.57 | -20.6% | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Barclays | Brandt Montour | $245 | $210.1 | -13.2% | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Steven Wieczynski | $250 | $210.1 | -11.4% | Oct 29, 2024 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Steven Wieczynski | $230 | $195.69 | -18.5% | Oct 11, 2024 |
| Citigroup | James Hardiman | $253 | $183.39 | -10.4% | Oct 9, 2024 |
| Truist Financial | Patrick Scholes | $204 | $177.41 | -27.7% | Sep 26, 2024 |
| Argus Research | John Staszak | $172 | $150.13 | -39.1% | May 29, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Daniel Politzer | $165 | $142.86 | -41.5% | May 17, 2024 |
| Macquarie | Paul Golding | $165 | $137.47 | -41.5% | Apr 25, 2024 |
| Mizuho Securities | Ben Chaiken | $164 | $126.6 | -41.9% | Apr 17, 2024 |
| Barclays | Brandt Montour | $154 | $130.9 | -45.4% | Apr 11, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Lizzie Dove | $162 | $132.11 | -42.6% | Mar 13, 2024 |
| Credit Suisse | Benjamin Chaiken | $104 | $75.61 | -63.2% | May 5, 2023 |
| Susquehanna | Analyst unavailable | $85 | $74.79 | -69.9% | Feb 8, 2023 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $65 | $74.01 | -77.0% | Feb 8, 2023 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $50 | $58.42 | -82.3% | Jan 10, 2023 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $82 | $56.77 | -70.9% | Jan 9, 2023 |
| J.P. Morgan | Analyst unavailable | $47 | $56.78 | -83.3% | Dec 6, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $62 | $58.76 | -78.0% | Nov 22, 2022 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $67 | $57.46 | -76.3% | Nov 21, 2022 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $76 | $58.07 | -73.1% | Nov 14, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Analyst unavailable | $58 | $50.68 | -79.5% | Sep 20, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Analyst unavailable | $70 | $51.87 | -75.2% | Sep 19, 2022 |
| Barclays | Brandt Montour | $61 | $50.44 | -78.4% | Sep 19, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $40 | $37.4 | -85.8% | Jul 29, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Chris Woronka | $50 | $35.29 | -82.3% | Jul 2, 2022 |
| Barclays | Brandt Montour | $56 | $40.14 | -80.2% | Jun 28, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $54 | $55.89 | -80.9% | Jun 8, 2022 |
| Truist Financial | Patrick Scholes | $65 | $55.41 | -77.0% | May 23, 2022 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $75 | $59.94 | -73.4% | May 11, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $59 | $62.52 | -79.1% | May 11, 2022 |
| UBS | Robin Farley | $86 | $60.92 | -69.5% | May 11, 2022 |
| Deutsche Bank | Analyst unavailable | $76 | $69.94 | -73.1% | May 6, 2022 |
| Stifel Nicolaus | Steven Wieczynski | $118 | $76.18 | -58.2% | Mar 19, 2022 |
| J.P. Morgan | Brandt Montour | $111 | $78.1 | -60.7% | Aug 5, 2021 |
| UBS | Robin M. Farley | $118 | $78.46 | -58.2% | May 13, 2021 |
| Goldman Sachs | Stephen Grambling | $95 | $84.69 | -66.3% | Apr 21, 2021 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationRoyal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. is a prominent global operator within the cruise sector. The company manages several well-known cruise lines, such as Royal Caribbean International, Celebrity Cruises, Azamara, and Silversea Cruises. Through these brands, it offers a wide array of voyages that call upon approximately 1,000 different destinations across the globe. As of February 25, 2022, its expansive fleet comprised 61 vessels. Established in 1968, the company's corporate headquarters are situated in Miami, Florida.
Historical context
All RCL earningsConsumer Cyclical peers this season
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| AZO AutoZone, Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +3.6% | +3.3% | AutoZone pairs commercial momentum with an aggressive FY2027 expansion plan |
| LEN-B Lennar Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | — | — | Lennar: Efficiency Gains Offset Housing-Market Pressures |
| LEN Lennar Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | — | -4.1% | Lennar Holds Volume Guidance as Margins Improve Despite Housing Headwinds |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-04-15T00:03:42.498162+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-10T23:10:43.258643+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-10T23:10:43.255801+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-10. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.