Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold42 ratings
Bullish1638.1%
Neutral2252.4%
Bearish49.5%
The Progressive Corporation · PGR · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026
Progressive Caps Record 2025 With $9B Net Premiums and 40% ROE
Progressive's FY2025 Q4 results capped a year of strong underwriting performance, with $9 billion in net premiums written, a 40% comprehensive ROE, and a combined ratio below 96%. The company secured regulatory approval to raise operating leverage to 3.5:1 premiums-to-surplus, freeing $1.6 billion in capital that supported a $13.50 per share variable dividend paid in January 2026. Its investment portfolio grew to nearly $100 billion with a 7.33% return. Management remains focused on AI-driven underwriting, autonomous-vehicle data integration, and expanding into adjacent lines like life and pet insurance under its Three Horizons strategy. EPS of $4.67 beat the $4.44 consensus by 5.2%, though revenue of $19.5 billion came in 3.9% below estimates.
Reported Before market openNYSEFinancial Services
$125.44B market cap
100quality score
Company context
Snapshot as of publicationThe Progressive Corporation, an insurance holding company, offers a comprehensive range of insurance products and associated services across the United States. Its portfolio includes personal and commercial vehicle coverage, residential and commercial property protection, general liability, and various other specialized property-casualty insurance options. The company's operations are structured into three main divisions: Personal Lines, Commercial Lines, and Property. Within the Personal Lines segment, Progressive provides coverage for individual automobiles and recreational vehicles. Offerings range from standard personal auto policies to specialized options for motorcycles, all-terrain vehicles (ATVs), RVs, watercraft, snowmobiles, and similar forms of personal transport. The Commercial Lines division focuses on providing primary liability and physical damage insurance for business vehicles, alongside general liability and property insurance tailored for commercial applications.…
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$4.67
Consensus $4
EPS surprise
+5.2%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$19.51B
Consensus $20.30B
Revenue surprise
-3.9%
Reported versus consensus
Earnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$217.62Current
$85Low
$211.95Average
$309High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 12, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 27, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 17, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 4, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Underweight | Upgrade | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | In Line | In Line | Maintain | Jul 16, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jul 16, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Jul 9, 2026 |
| HSBC | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Mar 24, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Equal Weight | Upgrade | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 28, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Roth MKM | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 25, 2025 |
| TD Cowen | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Nov 8, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 15, 2024 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 18, 2022 |
| MKM Partners | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 18, 2022 |
| Edward Jones | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 9, 2022 |
| Wolfe Research | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Aug 17, 2021 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 1, 2021 |
| B. Riley Securities | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Mar 11, 2020 |
| B. Riley FBR | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Mar 11, 2020 |
| B. Riley | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Mar 11, 2020 |
| Buckingham Research | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Dec 6, 2019 |
| Buckingham | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Dec 6, 2019 |
| Keefe Bruyette & Woods | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | May 17, 2018 |
| Sandler O'Neill | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Mar 21, 2017 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Mar 20, 2017 |
| Bernstein | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jan 19, 2016 |
| Sterne Agee CRT | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 21, 2015 |
| JMP Securities | Outperform | Market Outperform | Maintain | Sep 16, 2015 |
| Janney Montgomery Scott | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jan 7, 2015 |
| Janney Capital | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jan 7, 2015 |
| Evercore Partners | Equal Weight | Underweight | Upgrade | Jul 15, 2014 |
| William Blair | Outperform | Underperform | Upgrade | Mar 21, 2014 |
| Nomura | Reduce | Reduce | Maintain | Dec 12, 2013 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Mar 14, 2013 |
| Macquarie | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Jan 17, 2013 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $217.62. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Brian Meredith | $234 | $222.51 | +7.5% | Aug 27, 2026 |
| Roth Capital | Harry Fong | $245 | $217.27 | +12.6% | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Alex Scott | $230 | $216.15 | +5.7% | Aug 19, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Andrew Andersen | $228 | $216.03 | +4.8% | Aug 19, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Ryan Tunis | $200 | $207.7 | -8.1% | Aug 17, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $236 | $210.75 | +8.4% | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $210 | $207.07 | -3.5% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $205 | $205.22 | -5.8% | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Elyse Greenspan | $198 | $205.22 | -9.0% | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $240 | $229.64 | +10.3% | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $243 | $232.9 | +11.7% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| HSBC | Vikram Gandhi | $221 | $232.22 | +1.6% | Jul 6, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $230 | $220.17 | +5.7% | Jun 30, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $205 | $224.34 | -5.8% | Jun 29, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Elyse Greenspan | $219 | $204.42 | +0.6% | Jun 18, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $208 | $197.89 | -4.4% | May 22, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Michael Zaremski | $220 | $201.92 | +1.1% | May 20, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $221 | $201.23 | +1.6% | Apr 16, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Elyse Greenspan | $218 | $201.23 | +0.2% | Apr 16, 2026 |
| Barclays | Alex Scott | $247 | $202.79 | +13.5% | Mar 18, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Michael Zaremski | $208 | $203.21 | -4.4% | Mar 11, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Paul Newsome | $259 | $212.8 | +19.0% | Mar 2, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Alex Scott | $225 | $203.69 | +3.4% | Feb 23, 2026 |
| UBS | Brian Meredith | $218 | $203.62 | +0.2% | Feb 23, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $230 | $203.52 | +5.7% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Roth Capital | Analyst unavailable | $235 | $203.32 | +8.0% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $214 | $203.28 | -1.7% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $216 | $209.29 | -0.7% | Feb 11, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $226 | $208 | +3.9% | Feb 2, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $232 | $208.88 | +6.6% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| HSBC | Analyst unavailable | $224 | $201.97 | +2.9% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Michael Zaremski | $239 | $205.5 | +9.8% | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Yaron Kinar | $240 | $205.83 | +10.3% | Jan 14, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $240 | $216.5 | +10.3% | Jan 13, 2026 |
| Barclays | Alex Scott | $265 | $209.1 | +21.8% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $227 | $209.1 | +4.3% | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $237 | $213.98 | +8.9% | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Elyse Greenspan | $242 | $224.86 | +11.2% | Dec 19, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $253 | $227.27 | +16.3% | Dec 18, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $242 | $236.18 | +11.2% | Dec 15, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $256 | $223.16 | +17.6% | Dec 9, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Michael Zaremski | $260 | $226 | +19.5% | Nov 21, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $247 | $222.93 | +13.5% | Nov 20, 2025 |
| HSBC | Vikram Gandhi | $259 | $225.14 | +19.0% | Nov 17, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Andrew Andersen | $232 | $223.15 | +6.6% | Nov 14, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Alex Scott | $245 | $216.64 | +12.6% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| Barclays | Alex Scott | $257 | $225.61 | +18.1% | Oct 20, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $214 | $225.61 | -1.7% | Oct 20, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $265 | $223.34 | +21.8% | Oct 17, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $247 | $226.5 | +13.5% | Oct 16, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Elyse Greenspan | $246 | $226.5 | +13.0% | Oct 16, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $261 | $244.82 | +19.9% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $271 | $243.89 | +24.5% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $273 | $247.51 | +25.4% | Oct 1, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $252 | $243.49 | +15.8% | Sep 18, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $265 | $243.49 | +21.8% | Sep 18, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $250 | $243.61 | +14.9% | Sep 17, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $267 | $249.21 | +22.7% | Aug 22, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $265 | $246.51 | +21.8% | Aug 11, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $330 | $288.24 | +51.6% | May 19, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Elyse Greenspan | $328 | $283.66 | +50.7% | May 7, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Alex Scott | $294 | $246.74 | +35.1% | Nov 6, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Michael Zaremski | $273 | $241.48 | +25.4% | Nov 4, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Alex Scott | $292 | $250.74 | +34.2% | Oct 21, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $310 | $251.34 | +42.5% | Oct 18, 2024 |
| CFRA | Catherine Seifert | $290 | $252.61 | +33.3% | Oct 16, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Elyse Greenspan | $297 | $251.6 | +36.5% | Oct 16, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Michael Ward | $257 | $255.36 | +18.1% | Oct 4, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Alex Scott | $280 | $255.44 | +28.7% | Sep 17, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $300 | $255.46 | +37.9% | Sep 16, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Joshua Shanker | $309 | $255.46 | +42.0% | Sep 15, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $260 | $255.46 | +19.5% | Sep 14, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Elyse Greenspan | $282 | $251.31 | +29.6% | Sep 10, 2024 |
| Barclays | Alex Scott | $267 | $253.91 | +22.7% | Sep 4, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Joshua Shanker | $312 | $252.2 | +43.4% | Sep 3, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Paul Newsome | $252 | $234.34 | +15.8% | Aug 15, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Alex Scott | $262 | $235.17 | +20.4% | Aug 15, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | David Motemaden | $257 | $234.34 | +18.1% | Aug 14, 2024 |
| HSBC | Vikram Gandhi | $253 | $222.99 | +16.3% | Aug 12, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Michael Zaremski | $237 | $214.05 | +8.9% | Aug 7, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Yaron Kinar | $257 | $210 | +18.1% | Jul 17, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $255 | $212.53 | +17.2% | Jun 10, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Elyse Greenspan | $243 | $209.22 | +11.7% | May 20, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Michael Zaremski | $235 | $209.25 | +8.0% | May 16, 2024 |
| CFRA | Catherine Seifert | $235 | $206.59 | +8.0% | Apr 15, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Michael Zaremski | $234 | $206.85 | +7.5% | Apr 15, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Yaron Kinar | $245 | $203.9 | +12.6% | Apr 12, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Paul Newsome | $240 | $202.26 | +10.3% | Apr 12, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $247 | $206.15 | +13.5% | Apr 11, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | David Motemaden | $215 | $204.88 | -1.2% | Mar 15, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $227 | $196.01 | +4.3% | Mar 6, 2024 |
| Raymond James | Gregory Peters | $165 | $157.41 | -24.2% | Oct 16, 2023 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $111 | $137.45 | -49.0% | Feb 1, 2023 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $109 | $126.58 | -49.9% | Dec 15, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Gregory Peters | $140 | $125.16 | -35.7% | Aug 29, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $130 | $127.48 | -40.3% | Aug 19, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $106 | $127.29 | -51.3% | Aug 18, 2022 |
| MKM Partners | Analyst unavailable | $135 | $113.16 | -38.0% | Jul 18, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $121 | $112.9 | -44.4% | Jul 18, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Andrew Kligerman | $124 | $106.95 | -43.0% | Apr 28, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Yaron Kinar | $90 | $108.72 | -58.6% | Jan 30, 2022 |
| Evercore ISI | David Motemaden | $118 | $109.75 | -45.8% | Jan 14, 2022 |
| MKM Partners | Harry Fong | $115 | $101.33 | -47.2% | Dec 16, 2021 |
| KBW | Meyer Shields | $92 | $101.33 | -57.7% | Dec 16, 2021 |
| Morgan Stanley | Michael Phillips CFA | $85 | $94.61 | -60.9% | Jun 7, 2021 |
| Piper Sandler | Nicole Miller Regan | $96 | $94.65 | -55.9% | Apr 12, 2021 |
Track every rating change on PGR the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeMarket reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+2.2%
Event window
SPY move
-0.0%
Same window
Abnormal move
+2.2%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.4×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
-0.5%
Up to 20 sessions
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What changed
EPS of $4.67 beat consensus of $4.44 by 5.2%. Revenue of $19.51 billion missed the $20.30 billion estimate by 3.9%. Operating leverage was raised to 3.5:1, freeing $1.6 billion in capital. A $13.50 per share variable dividend was paid in January 2026. The investment portfolio reached nearly $100 billion with a 7.33% return. The stock moved up 2.2% on the report with volume 1.4x above baseline.
Guidance delta
Management maintained its guidance stance, continuing to target the 3.5:1 operating leverage ratio, a variable dividend policy with modest share repurchases, and the Three Horizons product pipeline expansion including life and pet insurance. No explicit forward numerical guidance was provided, consistent with Progressive's historical practice.
Key takeaways
- Full-year 2025 net premiums written reached $9 billion with market share growth to approximately 18.5% in private passenger auto
- Comprehensive ROE of 40% and combined ratio below 96% reflect strong underwriting discipline
- Regulators approved an increase in operating leverage to 3.5:1, freeing $1.6 billion in capital during 2025
- A $13.50 per share variable dividend was paid in January 2026, reducing holding-company capital from $13 billion to $5 billion
- The investment portfolio grew to nearly $100 billion, delivering a 7.33% return with an average AA- credit rating and 3.5-year duration
Management priorities
- Continue moving operating leverage toward the 3.5:1 target
- Maintain a variable dividend policy alongside modest share repurchases
- Scale AI Strategy Council initiatives and expand generative-AI use cases
- Advance the Three Horizons product pipeline, including life and pet insurance
- Invest in usage-based insurance and autonomous-vehicle data integration for pricing refinement
Related earnings events
Financial ServicesHIG · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026The Hartford Beats on Q2 Core Earnings, Divests Hartford Funds, Expands Buyback to $4.2BAXP · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026AXP Q2 2026: Platinum Card Drives 10% Revenue Growth, Full-Year Guidance RaisedGL · FY2026 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026Globe Life Q2: Net Income Up 20%, EPS Guidance Raised on AI and Reinsurance Initiatives
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-07-28T23:11:58.408752+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-07-28T23:11:58.405332+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated . For educational purposes only; not investment advice.