Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold42 ratings
Bullish1638.1%
Neutral2252.4%
Bearish49.5%
The Progressive Corporation · PGR · FY2025 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2025
Progressive posts strong growth while flagging refund and loss-cost risks
The current analysis supports a constructive but conditional view of Progressive's earnings trajectory: profitable share gains, pricing agility, bundling, and capital returns are positives, while Florida refund exposure, loss-cost inflation, tariffs, and policy-mix risks could constrain durability.
Reported Before market openNYSEFinancial Services
$122.27B market cap
100quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$4.88
Consensus $4.43
EPS surprise
+10.2%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$20.08B
Consensus $20.46B
Revenue surprise
-1.9%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+1.8%
Event window
SPY move
+0.3%
Same window
Abnormal move
+1.4%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.4×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+1.1%
Up to 20 sessions
PGRSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about PGR FY2025 Q2
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did PGR rise 1.8% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q2?What changed in PGR's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q2?Give me the bull and bear case for PGR after FY2025 Q2 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
The latest analysis shifted the emphasis toward a record-strong quarter, profitable market-share expansion, rapid pricing activity, and potential capital returns. It also added clearer near-term uncertainty around Florida excess-profit refunds and highlighted tariffs, inflation, shopping behavior, and policy duration as ongoing risks.
Guidance delta
Current analysis says guidance was not provided; prior-quarter guidance sentiment was maintained.
Key takeaways
- Management described record-strong quarterly performance, with profitable personal and commercial auto market-share gains.
- Pricing models, frequent rate revisions, and marketing supported growth, while bundling and preferred-segment expansion remain priorities.
- Potential Florida excess-profit refunds and tariff- or inflation-driven loss costs remain material uncertainties.
- Capital-return plans include share buybacks and a potential variable dividend.
Management priorities
- Expand rate-revision capacity and deploy new auto and property models.
- Grow preferred-segment and bundled-product business.
- Invest in technology and analytics to improve pricing accuracy and reduce loss-adjustment expense.
- Monitor tariffs, inflation, Florida exposure, and regulatory approvals.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$210.31Current
$85Low
$213.79Average
$309High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 4, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 18, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 16, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 27, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 17, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 4, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Underweight | Upgrade | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | In Line | In Line | Maintain | Jul 16, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jul 16, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 16, 2026 |
| HSBC | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Mar 24, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Barclays | Overweight | Equal Weight | Upgrade | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 28, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Roth MKM | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 25, 2025 |
| TD Cowen | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Nov 8, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 15, 2024 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 18, 2022 |
| MKM Partners | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 18, 2022 |
| Edward Jones | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 9, 2022 |
| Wolfe Research | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Aug 17, 2021 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 1, 2021 |
| B. Riley Securities | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Mar 11, 2020 |
| B. Riley FBR | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Mar 11, 2020 |
| B. Riley | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Mar 11, 2020 |
| Buckingham Research | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Dec 6, 2019 |
| Buckingham | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Dec 6, 2019 |
| Keefe Bruyette & Woods | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | May 17, 2018 |
| Sandler O'Neill | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Mar 21, 2017 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Mar 20, 2017 |
| Bernstein | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jan 19, 2016 |
| Sterne Agee CRT | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 21, 2015 |
| JMP Securities | Outperform | Market Outperform | Maintain | Sep 16, 2015 |
| Janney Montgomery Scott | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jan 7, 2015 |
| Janney Capital | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jan 7, 2015 |
| Evercore Partners | Equal Weight | Underweight | Upgrade | Jul 15, 2014 |
| William Blair | Outperform | Underperform | Upgrade | Mar 21, 2014 |
| Nomura | Reduce | Reduce | Maintain | Dec 12, 2013 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Mar 14, 2013 |
| Macquarie | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Jan 17, 2013 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $210.31. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raymond James | Gregory Peters | $245 | $213.48 | +16.5% | Sep 21, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Yaron Kinar | $230 | $221.31 | +9.4% | Sep 16, 2026 |
| UBS | Brian Meredith | $234 | $222.51 | +11.3% | Aug 27, 2026 |
| Roth Capital | Harry Fong | $245 | $217.27 | +16.5% | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Alex Scott | $230 | $216.15 | +9.4% | Aug 19, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Andrew Andersen | $228 | $216.03 | +8.4% | Aug 19, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Ryan Tunis | $200 | $207.7 | -4.9% | Aug 17, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $236 | $210.75 | +12.2% | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $210 | $207.07 | -0.1% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $205 | $205.22 | -2.5% | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Elyse Greenspan | $198 | $205.22 | -5.9% | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $240 | $229.64 | +14.1% | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $243 | $232.9 | +15.5% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| HSBC | Vikram Gandhi | $221 | $232.22 | +5.1% | Jul 6, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $230 | $220.17 | +9.4% | Jun 30, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $205 | $224.34 | -2.5% | Jun 29, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Elyse Greenspan | $219 | $204.42 | +4.1% | Jun 18, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $208 | $197.89 | -1.1% | May 22, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Michael Zaremski | $220 | $201.92 | +4.6% | May 20, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $221 | $201.23 | +5.1% | Apr 16, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Elyse Greenspan | $218 | $201.23 | +3.7% | Apr 16, 2026 |
| Barclays | Alex Scott | $247 | $202.79 | +17.4% | Mar 18, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Michael Zaremski | $208 | $203.21 | -1.1% | Mar 11, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Paul Newsome | $259 | $212.8 | +23.2% | Mar 2, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Alex Scott | $225 | $203.69 | +7.0% | Feb 23, 2026 |
| UBS | Brian Meredith | $218 | $203.62 | +3.7% | Feb 23, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $230 | $203.52 | +9.4% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Roth Capital | Analyst unavailable | $235 | $203.32 | +11.7% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $214 | $203.28 | +1.8% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $216 | $209.29 | +2.7% | Feb 11, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $226 | $208 | +7.5% | Feb 2, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $232 | $208.88 | +10.3% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| HSBC | Analyst unavailable | $224 | $201.97 | +6.5% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Michael Zaremski | $239 | $205.5 | +13.6% | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Yaron Kinar | $240 | $205.83 | +14.1% | Jan 14, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $240 | $216.5 | +14.1% | Jan 13, 2026 |
| Barclays | Alex Scott | $265 | $209.1 | +26.0% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $227 | $209.1 | +7.9% | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $237 | $213.98 | +12.7% | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Elyse Greenspan | $242 | $224.86 | +15.1% | Dec 19, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $253 | $227.27 | +20.3% | Dec 18, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $242 | $236.18 | +15.1% | Dec 15, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $256 | $223.16 | +21.7% | Dec 9, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Michael Zaremski | $260 | $226 | +23.6% | Nov 21, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $247 | $222.93 | +17.4% | Nov 20, 2025 |
| HSBC | Vikram Gandhi | $259 | $225.14 | +23.2% | Nov 17, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Andrew Andersen | $232 | $223.15 | +10.3% | Nov 14, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Alex Scott | $245 | $216.64 | +16.5% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| Barclays | Alex Scott | $257 | $225.61 | +22.2% | Oct 20, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $214 | $225.61 | +1.8% | Oct 20, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $265 | $223.34 | +26.0% | Oct 17, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $247 | $226.5 | +17.4% | Oct 16, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Elyse Greenspan | $246 | $226.5 | +17.0% | Oct 16, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $261 | $244.82 | +24.1% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $271 | $243.89 | +28.9% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $273 | $247.51 | +29.8% | Oct 1, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $252 | $243.49 | +19.8% | Sep 18, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $265 | $243.49 | +26.0% | Sep 18, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $250 | $243.61 | +18.9% | Sep 17, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $267 | $249.21 | +27.0% | Aug 22, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $265 | $246.51 | +26.0% | Aug 11, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $330 | $288.24 | +56.9% | May 19, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Elyse Greenspan | $328 | $283.66 | +56.0% | May 7, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Alex Scott | $294 | $246.74 | +39.8% | Nov 6, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Michael Zaremski | $273 | $241.48 | +29.8% | Nov 4, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Alex Scott | $292 | $250.74 | +38.8% | Oct 21, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $310 | $251.34 | +47.4% | Oct 18, 2024 |
| CFRA | Catherine Seifert | $290 | $252.61 | +37.9% | Oct 16, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Elyse Greenspan | $297 | $251.6 | +41.2% | Oct 16, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Michael Ward | $257 | $255.36 | +22.2% | Oct 4, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Alex Scott | $280 | $255.44 | +33.1% | Sep 17, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $300 | $255.46 | +42.6% | Sep 16, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Joshua Shanker | $309 | $255.46 | +46.9% | Sep 15, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $260 | $255.46 | +23.6% | Sep 14, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Elyse Greenspan | $282 | $251.31 | +34.1% | Sep 10, 2024 |
| Barclays | Alex Scott | $267 | $253.91 | +27.0% | Sep 4, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Joshua Shanker | $312 | $252.2 | +48.4% | Sep 3, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Paul Newsome | $252 | $234.34 | +19.8% | Aug 15, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Alex Scott | $262 | $235.17 | +24.6% | Aug 15, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | David Motemaden | $257 | $234.34 | +22.2% | Aug 14, 2024 |
| HSBC | Vikram Gandhi | $253 | $222.99 | +20.3% | Aug 12, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Michael Zaremski | $237 | $214.05 | +12.7% | Aug 7, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Yaron Kinar | $257 | $210 | +22.2% | Jul 17, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $255 | $212.53 | +21.2% | Jun 10, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Elyse Greenspan | $243 | $209.22 | +15.5% | May 20, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Michael Zaremski | $235 | $209.25 | +11.7% | May 16, 2024 |
| CFRA | Catherine Seifert | $235 | $206.59 | +11.7% | Apr 15, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Michael Zaremski | $234 | $206.85 | +11.3% | Apr 15, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Yaron Kinar | $245 | $203.9 | +16.5% | Apr 12, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Paul Newsome | $240 | $202.26 | +14.1% | Apr 12, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $247 | $206.15 | +17.4% | Apr 11, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | David Motemaden | $215 | $204.88 | +2.2% | Mar 15, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $227 | $196.01 | +7.9% | Mar 6, 2024 |
| Raymond James | Gregory Peters | $165 | $157.41 | -21.5% | Oct 16, 2023 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $111 | $137.45 | -47.2% | Feb 1, 2023 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $109 | $126.58 | -48.2% | Dec 15, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Gregory Peters | $140 | $125.16 | -33.4% | Aug 29, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $130 | $127.48 | -38.2% | Aug 19, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $106 | $127.29 | -49.6% | Aug 18, 2022 |
| MKM Partners | Analyst unavailable | $135 | $113.16 | -35.8% | Jul 18, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $121 | $112.9 | -42.5% | Jul 18, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Andrew Kligerman | $124 | $106.95 | -41.0% | Apr 28, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Yaron Kinar | $90 | $108.72 | -57.2% | Jan 30, 2022 |
| Evercore ISI | David Motemaden | $118 | $109.75 | -43.9% | Jan 14, 2022 |
| MKM Partners | Harry Fong | $115 | $101.33 | -45.3% | Dec 16, 2021 |
| KBW | Meyer Shields | $92 | $101.33 | -56.3% | Dec 16, 2021 |
| Morgan Stanley | Michael Phillips CFA | $85 | $94.61 | -59.6% | Jun 7, 2021 |
| Piper Sandler | Nicole Miller Regan | $96 | $94.65 | -54.4% | Apr 12, 2021 |
Track every rating change on PGR the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationThe Progressive Corporation, an insurance holding company, offers a comprehensive range of insurance products and associated services across the United States. Its portfolio includes personal and commercial vehicle coverage, residential and commercial property protection, general liability, and various other specialized property-casualty insurance options. The company's operations are structured into three main divisions: Personal Lines, Commercial Lines, and Property. Within the Personal Lines segment, Progressive provides coverage for individual automobiles and recreational vehicles. Offerings range from standard personal auto policies to specialized options for motorcycles, all-terrain vehicles (ATVs), RVs, watercraft, snowmobiles, and similar forms of personal transport. The Commercial Lines division focuses on providing primary liability and physical damage insurance for business vehicles, alongside general liability and property insurance tailored for commercial applications.…
Historical context
All PGR earningsFinancial Services peers this season
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|---|---|---|---|---|
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| CM Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +8.9% | -2.8% | CIBC Q3: Broad growth, resilient credit and expanded AI rollout |
| TD The Toronto-Dominion Bank | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +13.8% | +1.4% | TD emphasizes growth investments alongside disciplined capital management |
| RY Royal Bank of Canada | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +6.2% | -1.3% | RBC reports record Q3 earnings while investing for growth |
| AFRM Affirm Holdings, Inc. | FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 | +1230.3% | +0.3% | Affirm's most profitable quarter shifts focus to product execution |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- ACNFY2026 Q4 · October 1, 2026+3.5% EPS+15.8% move
- MKCFY2026 Q3 · October 1, 2026+13.9% EPS-4.9% move
- NKEFY2027 Q1 · October 1, 2026+10.0% EPS-0.7% move
- CAGFY2027 Q1 · September 30, 2026+44.4% EPS-4.9% move
- FDSFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+3.9% EPS+3.8% move
- JBLFY2026 Q4 · September 30, 2026+8.1% EPS-10.0% move
Get the PGR recap when the next report posts
One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:55.686058+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-04T10:30:42.713716+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-04T10:30:42.710973+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-04. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.