Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold42 ratings
Bullish1638.1%
Neutral2252.4%
Bearish49.5%
The Progressive Corporation · PGR · FY2024 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2025
Progressive: Strong growth, efficient claims technology, tariff risks
The supplied analysis supports a constructive operating picture: strong premium and policy growth, high profitability and improving claims efficiency provide evidence for continued earnings resilience. The main tests are whether tariff-related loss costs, retention pressure and competitive pricing erode that advantage.
Reported Before market openNYSEFinancial Services
$129.58B market cap
80quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
—
Consensus $3.43
EPS surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
—
Consensus —
Revenue surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+0.6%
Event window
SPY move
-0.4%
Same window
Abnormal move
+1.0%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.4×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+13.1%
Up to 20 sessions
PGRSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about PGR FY2024 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
What drove PGR's +0.6% move after FY2024 Q4 earnings?What changed in PGR's guidance and outlook in FY2024 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for PGR after FY2024 Q4 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
The latest analysis added a stronger focus on tariff exposure, machine-vision expansion and digital claims productivity. Management also emphasized maintaining flexible advertising, expanding auto-home bundling and investing toward a combined-ratio target of 96 or better.
Guidance delta
Maintained; management continued to target a combined ratio at or below 96 while investing in people, data and technology.
Key takeaways
- Management described record 2024 premium growth and policy additions.
- A combined ratio of 88.8 provided profitability headroom versus the 96 target.
- AI-enabled photo estimating and digital claims tools were highlighted as efficiency drivers.
- Management is modeling potential tariff effects while working on retention and bundling.
Management priorities
- Scale AI-driven photo estimating and machine-vision capabilities.
- Expand auto-home bundles and continue derisking the property portfolio.
- Use flexible, performance-based advertising to support growth.
- Invest in people, data and technology while targeting a combined ratio at or below 96.
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Try FN2 freeEarnings History
Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$209.1Current
$85Low
$214.21Average
$309High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 14, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barclays | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Oct 7, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Oct 5, 2026 |
| Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Sep 18, 2026 |
| Mizuho | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 16, 2026 |
| UBS | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 27, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Underweight | Underweight | Maintain | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 17, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Equal Weight | Underweight | Upgrade | Jul 24, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI Group | In Line | In Line | Maintain | Jul 16, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jul 16, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 16, 2026 |
| HSBC | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Jul 6, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Mar 24, 2026 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 4, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Oct 28, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Outperform | Outperform | Maintain | Oct 17, 2025 |
| Roth MKM | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 25, 2025 |
| TD Cowen | Hold | Hold | Maintain | Nov 8, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Aug 15, 2024 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Aug 18, 2022 |
| MKM Partners | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Jul 18, 2022 |
| Edward Jones | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 9, 2022 |
| Wolfe Research | Underperform | Underperform | Maintain | Aug 17, 2021 |
| Deutsche Bank | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 1, 2021 |
| B. Riley Securities | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Mar 11, 2020 |
| B. Riley FBR | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Mar 11, 2020 |
| B. Riley | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Mar 11, 2020 |
| Buckingham Research | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Dec 6, 2019 |
| Buckingham | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Dec 6, 2019 |
| Keefe Bruyette & Woods | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | May 17, 2018 |
| Sandler O'Neill | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Mar 21, 2017 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Mar 20, 2017 |
| Bernstein | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Jan 19, 2016 |
| Sterne Agee CRT | Neutral | Neutral | Maintain | Sep 21, 2015 |
| JMP Securities | Outperform | Market Outperform | Maintain | Sep 16, 2015 |
| Janney Montgomery Scott | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jan 7, 2015 |
| Janney Capital | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Jan 7, 2015 |
| Evercore Partners | Equal Weight | Underweight | Upgrade | Jul 15, 2014 |
| William Blair | Outperform | Underperform | Upgrade | Mar 21, 2014 |
| Nomura | Reduce | Reduce | Maintain | Dec 12, 2013 |
| RBC Capital | Sector Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Mar 14, 2013 |
| Macquarie | Underperform | Neutral | Downgrade | Jan 17, 2013 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $209.1. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HSBC | Analyst unavailable | $216 | $212.05 | +3.3% | Oct 7, 2026 |
| Raymond James | Gregory Peters | $245 | $213.48 | +17.2% | Sep 21, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Yaron Kinar | $230 | $221.31 | +10.0% | Sep 16, 2026 |
| UBS | Brian Meredith | $234 | $222.51 | +11.9% | Aug 27, 2026 |
| Roth Capital | Harry Fong | $245 | $217.27 | +17.2% | Aug 20, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Alex Scott | $230 | $216.15 | +10.0% | Aug 19, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Andrew Andersen | $228 | $216.03 | +9.0% | Aug 19, 2026 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Ryan Tunis | $200 | $207.7 | -4.4% | Aug 17, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $236 | $210.75 | +12.9% | Aug 5, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $210 | $207.07 | +0.4% | Jul 24, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $205 | $205.22 | -2.0% | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Elyse Greenspan | $198 | $205.22 | -5.3% | Jul 16, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $240 | $229.64 | +14.8% | Jul 10, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $243 | $232.9 | +16.2% | Jul 9, 2026 |
| HSBC | Vikram Gandhi | $221 | $232.22 | +5.7% | Jul 6, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $230 | $220.17 | +10.0% | Jun 30, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $205 | $224.34 | -2.0% | Jun 29, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Elyse Greenspan | $219 | $204.42 | +4.7% | Jun 18, 2026 |
| RBC Capital | Analyst unavailable | $208 | $197.89 | -0.5% | May 22, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Michael Zaremski | $220 | $201.92 | +5.2% | May 20, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $221 | $201.23 | +5.7% | Apr 16, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Elyse Greenspan | $218 | $201.23 | +4.3% | Apr 16, 2026 |
| Barclays | Alex Scott | $247 | $202.79 | +18.1% | Mar 18, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Michael Zaremski | $208 | $203.21 | -0.5% | Mar 11, 2026 |
| Piper Sandler | Paul Newsome | $259 | $212.8 | +23.9% | Mar 2, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Alex Scott | $225 | $203.69 | +7.6% | Feb 23, 2026 |
| UBS | Brian Meredith | $218 | $203.62 | +4.3% | Feb 23, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $230 | $203.52 | +10.0% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Roth Capital | Analyst unavailable | $235 | $203.32 | +12.4% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $214 | $203.28 | +2.3% | Feb 19, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Analyst unavailable | $216 | $209.29 | +3.3% | Feb 11, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $226 | $208 | +8.1% | Feb 2, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $232 | $208.88 | +10.9% | Jan 29, 2026 |
| HSBC | Analyst unavailable | $224 | $201.97 | +7.1% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| BMO Capital | Michael Zaremski | $239 | $205.5 | +14.3% | Jan 15, 2026 |
| Mizuho Securities | Yaron Kinar | $240 | $205.83 | +14.8% | Jan 14, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $240 | $216.5 | +14.8% | Jan 13, 2026 |
| Barclays | Alex Scott | $265 | $209.1 | +26.7% | Jan 8, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Analyst unavailable | $227 | $209.1 | +8.6% | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $237 | $213.98 | +13.3% | Jan 7, 2026 |
| Wells Fargo | Elyse Greenspan | $242 | $224.86 | +15.7% | Dec 19, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $253 | $227.27 | +21.0% | Dec 18, 2025 |
| Mizuho Securities | Analyst unavailable | $242 | $236.18 | +15.7% | Dec 15, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $256 | $223.16 | +22.4% | Dec 9, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Michael Zaremski | $260 | $226 | +24.3% | Nov 21, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $247 | $222.93 | +18.1% | Nov 20, 2025 |
| HSBC | Vikram Gandhi | $259 | $225.14 | +23.9% | Nov 17, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Andrew Andersen | $232 | $223.15 | +10.9% | Nov 14, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Alex Scott | $245 | $216.64 | +17.2% | Oct 27, 2025 |
| Barclays | Alex Scott | $257 | $225.61 | +22.9% | Oct 20, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $214 | $225.61 | +2.3% | Oct 20, 2025 |
| Raymond James | Analyst unavailable | $265 | $223.34 | +26.7% | Oct 17, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $247 | $226.5 | +18.1% | Oct 16, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Elyse Greenspan | $246 | $226.5 | +17.6% | Oct 16, 2025 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $261 | $244.82 | +24.8% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $271 | $243.89 | +29.6% | Oct 8, 2025 |
| Evercore ISI | Analyst unavailable | $273 | $247.51 | +30.6% | Oct 1, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $252 | $243.49 | +20.5% | Sep 18, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Analyst unavailable | $265 | $243.49 | +26.7% | Sep 18, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Analyst unavailable | $250 | $243.61 | +19.6% | Sep 17, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $267 | $249.21 | +27.7% | Aug 22, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $265 | $246.51 | +26.7% | Aug 11, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $330 | $288.24 | +57.8% | May 19, 2025 |
| Wells Fargo | Elyse Greenspan | $328 | $283.66 | +56.9% | May 7, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Alex Scott | $294 | $246.74 | +40.6% | Nov 6, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Michael Zaremski | $273 | $241.48 | +30.6% | Nov 4, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Alex Scott | $292 | $250.74 | +39.6% | Oct 21, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $310 | $251.34 | +48.3% | Oct 18, 2024 |
| CFRA | Catherine Seifert | $290 | $252.61 | +38.7% | Oct 16, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Elyse Greenspan | $297 | $251.6 | +42.0% | Oct 16, 2024 |
| Citigroup | Michael Ward | $257 | $255.36 | +22.9% | Oct 4, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Alex Scott | $280 | $255.44 | +33.9% | Sep 17, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $300 | $255.46 | +43.5% | Sep 16, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Joshua Shanker | $309 | $255.46 | +47.8% | Sep 15, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $260 | $255.46 | +24.3% | Sep 14, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Elyse Greenspan | $282 | $251.31 | +34.9% | Sep 10, 2024 |
| Barclays | Alex Scott | $267 | $253.91 | +27.7% | Sep 4, 2024 |
| Bank of America Securities | Joshua Shanker | $312 | $252.2 | +49.2% | Sep 3, 2024 |
| Piper Sandler | Paul Newsome | $252 | $234.34 | +20.5% | Aug 15, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Alex Scott | $262 | $235.17 | +25.3% | Aug 15, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | David Motemaden | $257 | $234.34 | +22.9% | Aug 14, 2024 |
| HSBC | Vikram Gandhi | $253 | $222.99 | +21.0% | Aug 12, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Michael Zaremski | $237 | $214.05 | +13.3% | Aug 7, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Yaron Kinar | $257 | $210 | +22.9% | Jul 17, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $255 | $212.53 | +21.9% | Jun 10, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Elyse Greenspan | $243 | $209.22 | +16.2% | May 20, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Michael Zaremski | $235 | $209.25 | +12.4% | May 16, 2024 |
| CFRA | Catherine Seifert | $235 | $206.59 | +12.4% | Apr 15, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Michael Zaremski | $234 | $206.85 | +11.9% | Apr 15, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Yaron Kinar | $245 | $203.9 | +17.2% | Apr 12, 2024 |
| Wells Fargo | Elysee Greenspan | $238 | $202.26 | +13.8% | Apr 12, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $247 | $206.15 | +18.1% | Apr 11, 2024 |
| Evercore ISI | David Motemaden | $215 | $204.88 | +2.8% | Mar 15, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bob Huang | $227 | $196.01 | +8.6% | Mar 6, 2024 |
| Raymond James | Gregory Peters | $165 | $157.41 | -21.1% | Oct 16, 2023 |
| Citigroup | Analyst unavailable | $111 | $137.45 | -46.9% | Feb 1, 2023 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $109 | $126.58 | -47.9% | Dec 15, 2022 |
| Raymond James | Gregory Peters | $140 | $125.16 | -33.0% | Aug 29, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $130 | $127.48 | -37.8% | Aug 19, 2022 |
| Barclays | Analyst unavailable | $106 | $127.29 | -49.3% | Aug 18, 2022 |
| MKM Partners | Analyst unavailable | $135 | $113.16 | -35.4% | Jul 18, 2022 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $121 | $112.9 | -42.1% | Jul 18, 2022 |
| Credit Suisse | Andrew Kligerman | $124 | $106.95 | -40.7% | Apr 28, 2022 |
| Jefferies | Yaron Kinar | $90 | $108.72 | -57.0% | Jan 30, 2022 |
| Evercore ISI | David Motemaden | $118 | $109.75 | -43.6% | Jan 14, 2022 |
| MKM Partners | Harry Fong | $115 | $101.33 | -45.0% | Dec 16, 2021 |
| KBW | Meyer Shields | $92 | $101.33 | -56.0% | Dec 16, 2021 |
| Morgan Stanley | Michael Phillips CFA | $85 | $94.61 | -59.4% | Jun 7, 2021 |
| Piper Sandler | Nicole Miller Regan | $96 | $94.65 | -54.1% | Apr 12, 2021 |
Track every rating change on PGR the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationThe Progressive Corporation, an insurance holding company, offers a comprehensive range of insurance products and associated services across the United States. Its portfolio includes personal and commercial vehicle coverage, residential and commercial property protection, general liability, and various other specialized property-casualty insurance options. The company's operations are structured into three main divisions: Personal Lines, Commercial Lines, and Property. Within the Personal Lines segment, Progressive provides coverage for individual automobiles and recreational vehicles. Offerings range from standard personal auto policies to specialized options for motorcycles, all-terrain vehicles (ATVs), RVs, watercraft, snowmobiles, and similar forms of personal transport. The Commercial Lines division focuses on providing primary liability and physical damage insurance for business vehicles, alongside general liability and property insurance tailored for commercial applications.…
Historical context
All PGR earningsFinancial Services peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WFC-PD Wells Fargo & Company | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +1.1% | — | Wells Fargo pairs loan growth with digital-payments investment |
| WFC-PA Wells Fargo & Company | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +1.1% | — | Wells Fargo Keeps Outlook While Expanding Digital Finance Efforts |
| WFC Wells Fargo & Company | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +1.1% | -3.1% | Wells Fargo posts Q3 growth as AI and payments expand the strategy |
| WFC-PY Wells Fargo & Company | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +1.1% | — | Wells Fargo: Growth broadens as margin and credit risks remain in focus |
| WFC-PZ Wells Fargo & Company | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +1.1% | — | Wells Fargo: Growth Holds, but Rate and CRE Risks Remain |
| WFC-PL Wells Fargo & Company | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +1.1% | — | Wells Fargo: Q3 growth, strong capital and digital-finance initiatives |
Latest beats and misses
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Missed on EPS
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One email per quarter with the scorecard, the market reaction and what changed on the call. No account needed.
Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-01-26T07:25:51.343212+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-14T13:20:42.666698+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-14T13:20:42.664480+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-14. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.