Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras · PBR · FY2025 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2025

Petrobras pairs resilient Q1 results with capital discipline

Petrobras's Q1 analysis supports a resilience case: management cited strong cash flow, higher production, new pre-salt reserves, and maintained capital plans despite lower oil prices. The case remains dependent on oil prices, leverage control, refinery execution, and the sustainability of dividends under weaker cash flow.

Reported Before market openNYSEEnergy $153.38B market cap
70quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS — Consensus $0.86
EPS surprise — Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue — Consensus $129.11B
Revenue surprise — Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

prior-close to event-session close
Stock move +2.3% Event window
SPY move +3.3% Same window
Abnormal move -1.0% Stock minus SPY
Volume 0.9× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -3.8% Up to 20 sessions
PBRSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Production rose 5.4% quarter over quarter; management highlighted new pre-salt discoveries, a $1 billion Q4 measurement carry-over in Q1 cash CapEx, and new renewable-content bunker fuel in Asia. CapEx guidance remained $18.5 billion, while austerity and cost-reduction measures were emphasized.

Guidance delta

Management maintained $18.5 billion CapEx guidance, a 45% free-cash-flow dividend policy, and a $75 billion debt ceiling.

Key takeaways

  • Management described Q1 net income of $6 billion and cash flow of $8.5 billion despite lower oil prices.
  • Production increased 5.4% quarter over quarter, while higher diesel crack spreads supported margins.
  • New pre-salt discoveries and planned rig, refinery, and gas-processing projects support the operating outlook.
  • Management is emphasizing austerity, cost reduction, and strict capital discipline.

Management priorities

  • Maintain capital discipline and cost reduction
  • Commission the Almirante Tamandaré and Alexandre de Gusmão FPSO projects
  • Advance RNEST refinery upgrades and BOAVENTURA gas-processing modules
  • Develop the equatorial margin and expand pre-salt reserves
  • Progress lower-carbon products and the ProForest Plus reforestation program

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
PBR EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $1.12 Q4 '23 actual $1.27, beat Q1 '24 estimate $0.79 Q1 '24 actual $0.75, miss Q2 '24 estimate $0.47 Q2 '24 actual $0.47, match Q3 '24 estimate $0.79 Q3 '24 actual $0.93, beat Q2 '25 estimate $0.70 Q2 '25 actual $0.64, miss Q3 '25 estimate $0.79 Q3 '25 actual $0.82, beat Q4 '25 estimate $0.57 Q4 '25 actual $0.72, beat Q1 '26 estimate $1.02 Q1 '26 actual $0.96, miss Q2 '26 estimate $1.52 Q2 '26 actual $1.62, beat Q3 '26 estimate $1.21 Q4 '26 estimate $1.18 Q1 '27 estimate $1.22 Q2 '27 estimate $1.12
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold21 ratings
Bullish1047.6%
Neutral838.1%
Bearish314.3%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$23.8Current
$11Low
$17.94Average
$24High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 7, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
UBS Buy BuyMaintainSep 23, 2026
JP Morgan Overweight OverweightMaintainSep 1, 2026
B of A Securities Buy NeutralUpgradeApr 17, 2026
Jefferies Hold BuyDowngradeMar 13, 2026
Goldman Sachs Buy BuyMaintainFeb 11, 2026
Show 16 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $23.8. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
UBSAnalyst unavailable$23$20.76 -3.4%Sep 23, 2026
BradescoAnalyst unavailable$20$18.25 -16.0%Aug 27, 2026
Banco SantanderAnalyst unavailable$24$19.83 +0.8%May 21, 2026
BradescoVicente Neto$19$20.54 -20.2%Apr 16, 2026
UBSTasso Vasconcellos$22$20.33 -7.6%Mar 26, 2026
See 13 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Brazilian energy giant Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. (Petrobras) is deeply involved in the global oil and gas industry, conducting exploration, production, and sales activities both within Brazil and internationally. The company's diverse operations are organized into four primary business segments: Exploration and Production; Refining, Transportation, and Marketing; Gas and Power; and Corporate and Other Businesses. Overall, Petrobras’s activities span the entire hydrocarbon value chain. This includes the search for and extraction of crude oil from various sources—onshore, offshore, and unconventional formations like shale—along with its subsequent refining, processing, trading, and distribution. The company also manages natural gas, other liquid hydrocarbons, and refined petroleum products. Specifically, the Exploration and Production division focuses on discovering, developing, and extracting crude oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas, primarily to supply the company's domestic refineries.…

Historical context

All PBR earnings

Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2025-04-28T00:03:27.953406+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-07T01:40:45.228701+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-07T01:40:45.226897+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-07. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.