Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold21 ratings
Bullish1047.6%
Neutral838.1%
Bearish314.3%
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras · PBR · FY2024 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2024
Petrobras: Strong Q3 production, lower debt, and heavier execution demands
The supplied analysis supports a constructive but conditional view: higher production, strong cash generation, and lower debt provide a foundation for growth, while the thesis depends on disciplined capex execution, project delivery, licensing progress, and resilient oil economics.
Reported After market closeNYSEEnergy
$163.04B market cap
80quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$0.93
Consensus $0.79
EPS surprise
+17.7%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
—
Consensus $22.46B
Revenue surprise
—
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
event-close to next-session close
Stock move
+1.5%
Event window
SPY move
+0.4%
Same window
Abnormal move
+1.1%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
1.5×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+3.7%
Up to 20 sessions
PBRSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about PBR FY2024 Q3
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did PBR rise 1.5% after beating EPS estimates in FY2024 Q3?What changed in PBR's guidance and outlook in FY2024 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for PBR after FY2024 Q3 earnings.
Free account. Your question opens in FN2 with this report's transcript and numbers attached.
Transcript intelligence
What changed
Relative to the prior-quarter analysis, the supplied Q3 analysis highlighted record 2P production, stronger cash generation, lower debt, higher quarterly capex, accelerated exploration emphasis, and a planned commercial natural-gas launch. The focus also broadened to low-carbon diesel and fertilizer initiatives.
Guidance delta
Maintained; the supplied analysis indicates no change in guidance sentiment.
Key takeaways
- The supplied analysis describes record 2P production and strong cash generation despite lower Brent prices.
- Debt fell to its lowest level since 2008, supporting financial flexibility.
- Capital spending rose as Petrobras advanced new platforms and FPSOs.
- Management emphasized equatorial-margin and Pelotas exploration, commercial natural-gas sales, and low-carbon projects.
- The key question is whether production and exploration investments convert into durable growth without execution or licensing setbacks.
Management priorities
- Bring new FPSOs into operation and support production growth.
- Launch the natural-gas unit commercially and expand domestic gas supply.
- Pursue reserve replacement in the equatorial margin and Pelotas Basin.
- Develop low-carbon diesel, fertilizer, renewable-energy, and biomethane initiatives.
- Maintain balance-sheet discipline while managing surplus cash and dividends.
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Beat
Miss
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Analyst 52W Price Targets
$25.3Current
$11Low
$17.94Average
$24High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 11, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Sep 23, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Sep 1, 2026 |
| B of A Securities | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Apr 17, 2026 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Mar 13, 2026 |
| Goldman Sachs | Buy | Buy | Maintain | Feb 11, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Equal Weight | Upgrade | Aug 26, 2024 |
| HSBC | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | Mar 25, 2024 |
| Bradesco Corretora | Outperform | Neutral | Upgrade | Sep 8, 2023 |
| Citigroup | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Aug 10, 2023 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Oct 17, 2022 |
| Scotiabank | Sector Outperform | Sector Perform | Upgrade | Aug 5, 2021 |
| Raymond James | Underperform | Market Perform | Downgrade | May 18, 2020 |
| Barclays | Underweight | Overweight | Downgrade | Jan 10, 2019 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Oct 8, 2018 |
| Societe Generale | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jun 4, 2018 |
| Tudor Pickering | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 17, 2016 |
| Macquarie | Neutral | Underperform | Upgrade | Sep 15, 2016 |
| Deutsche Bank | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | Mar 24, 2016 |
| Cowen & Co. | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Nov 10, 2014 |
| Wells Fargo | Outperform | Market Perform | Upgrade | Jun 17, 2013 |
| BTG Pactual | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 26, 2013 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $25.3. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $23 | $20.76 | -9.1% | Sep 23, 2026 |
| Bradesco | Analyst unavailable | $20 | $18.25 | -20.9% | Aug 27, 2026 |
| Banco Santander | Analyst unavailable | $24 | $19.83 | -5.1% | May 21, 2026 |
| Bradesco | Vicente Neto | $19 | $20.54 | -24.9% | Apr 16, 2026 |
| UBS | Tasso Vasconcellos | $22 | $20.33 | -13.0% | Mar 26, 2026 |
| Bradesco | Analyst unavailable | $17 | $15.11 | -32.8% | Feb 3, 2026 |
| BTG Pactual | Gustavo Cunha | $15 | $12.61 | -40.7% | Jan 16, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $14.6 | $12.69 | -42.3% | Jan 14, 2026 |
| UBS | Analyst unavailable | $14.4 | $12.33 | -43.1% | Aug 22, 2025 |
| Jefferies | Alejandro Anibal | $15.3 | $12.05 | -39.5% | May 15, 2025 |
| HSBC | Analyst unavailable | $15 | $12.96 | -40.7% | Mar 5, 2025 |
| CFRA | Stewart Glickman | $13 | $13.62 | -48.6% | Nov 11, 2024 |
| Morgan Stanley | Bruno Montanari | $20 | $14.4 | -20.9% | Aug 25, 2024 |
| CFRA | Stewart Glickman | $14 | $15.56 | -44.7% | May 15, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Alejandro Anibal Demichelis | $17.7 | $16.69 | -30.0% | May 15, 2024 |
| HSBC | Liyanna Yang | $18 | $14.95 | -28.9% | Mar 25, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | Bruno Amorim | $18.1 | $14.87 | -28.5% | Jun 21, 2023 |
| Banco Santander | Christian Audi | $11 | $8.23 | -56.5% | May 14, 2021 |
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Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationBrazilian energy giant Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. (Petrobras) is deeply involved in the global oil and gas industry, conducting exploration, production, and sales activities both within Brazil and internationally. The company's diverse operations are organized into four primary business segments: Exploration and Production; Refining, Transportation, and Marketing; Gas and Power; and Corporate and Other Businesses. Overall, Petrobras’s activities span the entire hydrocarbon value chain. This includes the search for and extraction of crude oil from various sources—onshore, offshore, and unconventional formations like shale—along with its subsequent refining, processing, trading, and distribution. The company also manages natural gas, other liquid hydrocarbons, and refined petroleum products. Specifically, the Exploration and Production division focuses on discovering, developing, and extracting crude oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas, primarily to supply the company's domestic refineries.…
Historical context
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2024-11-10T18:38:36.707185+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-11T16:30:44.637236+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-11T16:30:44.634459+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-11. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.