Oracle Corporation · ORCL · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q2 2025

Oracle Q4: Cloud Demand Strong, but Capex and Execution Matter

The quarter supports a constructive growth case for Oracle's cloud and AI strategy, but the evidence is conditional: sustained demand must translate into profitable growth while management executes a large capacity buildout.

Reported After market closeNYSETechnology $413.52B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $1.70 Consensus $1.64
EPS surprise +3.7% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $15.90B Consensus $15.58B
Revenue surprise +2.1% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move +13.3% Event window
SPY move +0.4% Same window
Abnormal move +12.9% Stock minus SPY
Volume 6.1× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +14.7% Up to 20 sessions
ORCLSPY benchmark

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Why did ORCL rise 13.3% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in ORCL's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for ORCL after FY2025 Q4 earnings.

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Relative to the prior quarter, Oracle reported continued cloud momentum and a larger remaining-performance-obligation backdrop, raised FY2026 guidance, and provided more detail on capacity expansion and planned capital spending. The central debate shifted toward execution, funding, and AI profitability as demand continues to exceed supply.

Guidance delta

Management raised FY2026 revenue guidance to above $67 billion, while planning materially higher capital spending to expand capacity.

Key takeaways

  • Management described strong cloud and OCI demand, with infrastructure demand exceeding current capacity.
  • AI, autonomous database services, SaaS applications, and multi-cloud offerings remain the central growth drivers.
  • The growth plan depends on substantial data-center investment, creating execution, cash-flow, and profitability questions.

Management priorities

  • Expand OCI regions and data-center capacity
  • Scale AI, autonomous database, and vector-database offerings
  • Broaden multi-cloud database partnerships and AI-enabled applications

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
ORCL EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 10 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q2 '24 estimate $1.32 Q2 '24 actual $1.34, beat Q3 '24 estimate $1.38 Q3 '24 actual $1.41, beat Q4 '24 estimate $1.65 Q4 '24 actual $1.63, miss Q1 '25 estimate $1.33 Q1 '25 actual $1.39, beat Q4 '25 estimate $1.64 Q4 '25 actual $1.70, beat Q1 '26 estimate $1.48 Q1 '26 actual $1.47, match Q2 '26 estimate $1.64 Q2 '26 actual $2.26, beat Q3 '26 estimate $1.70 Q3 '26 actual $1.79, beat Q4 '26 estimate $1.96 Q4 '26 actual $2.11, beat Q1 '27 estimate $1.74 Q1 '27 actual $1.92, beat Q2 '27 estimate $1.89 Q3 '27 estimate $2.02 Q4 '27 estimate $2.29 Q1 '28 estimate $2.31
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy85 ratings
Bullish5665.9%
Neutral2529.4%
Bearish44.7%

1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$141.4Current
$80Low
$240.71Average
$400High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 9, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Citizens Market Outperform Market OutperformMaintainOct 2, 2026
Freedom Broker Buy BuyMaintainSep 14, 2026
Argus Research Buy BuyMaintainSep 14, 2026
UBS Buy BuyMaintainSep 11, 2026
TD Cowen Buy BuyMaintainSep 11, 2026
Show 81 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $141.4. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
BMO CapitalKeith Bachman$195$155.88 +37.9%Sep 11, 2026
Stifel NicolausBrad Reback$200$153.17 +41.4%Sep 11, 2026
BarclaysAnalyst unavailable$252$153.17 +78.2%Sep 11, 2026
KeyBancAnalyst unavailable$285$153.17 +101.6%Sep 11, 2026
Morgan StanleySanjit Singh$210$154.04 +48.5%Sep 4, 2026
See 194 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Oracle Corporation, a global technology giant, provides a comprehensive suite of enterprise information technology solutions worldwide. A core part of its portfolio comprises cloud-based software-as-a-service (SaaS) applications, including the Oracle Fusion Cloud suite covering enterprise resource planning (ERP), enterprise performance management (EPM), supply chain and manufacturing management (SCM), and human capital management (HCM). This also extends to specialized offerings like Oracle Advertising, the NetSuite application suite, and Oracle Fusion solutions for Sales, Service, and Marketing. Beyond these, Oracle develops cloud solutions tailored for various specific industries, alongside traditional application licenses and comprehensive license support services. Furthermore, the company's robust cloud and licensing business is underpinned by its infrastructure technologies.…

Historical context

All ORCL earnings
-1.7%FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026-8.5%FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q2 2026+9.2%FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q1 2026

Technology peers this season

Latest reports in the same sector
CompanyQuarterEPS surpriseMarket moveHeadline
ACN Accenture plc FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q4 2026 +3.5% +15.8% Accenture: AI demand supports strong Q4, while pricing and geopolitics remain risks
JBL Jabil Inc. FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 +8.1% -10.0% Jabil enters FY2027 with AI-led growth and capacity risks
MU Micron Technology, Inc. FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q3 2026 +5.4% +0.0% Micron: Strong AI Memory Demand, Higher Capex, and HBM4E Ahead
SNX TD Synnex Corp FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 +20.9% -9.9% TD SYNNEX: AI-led growth accelerates, but mix and cash flow matter
ADBE Adobe Inc. FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 +0.8% +1.4% Adobe raises FY26 outlook as AI strategy broadens
SAIL SailPoint, Inc. FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 +13.8% -1.2% SailPoint pairs 25% ARR growth with accelerating AI-driven adoption

Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:55.686058+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-09T20:00:41.362657+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-09T20:00:41.359903+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-09. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.