ONEOK, Inc. · OKE · FY2025 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2025

ONEOK maintains near-term guidance as spreads pressure longer-term outlook

The evidence is mixed for a durable growth case: operating momentum, acquisition synergies, infrastructure expansion, and resilient demand support the trajectory, but tighter spreads and a lower longer-term outlook are material offsets.

Reported After market closeNYSEEnergy $56.23B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $1.34 Consensus $1.33
EPS surprise +0.8% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $7.89B Consensus $7.69B
Revenue surprise +2.6% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -5.2% Event window
SPY move -0.5% Same window
Abnormal move -4.7% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.9× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -2.4% Up to 20 sessions
OKESPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

The current analysis adds evidence of strong operating performance, continued synergy capture, and advancing capital projects, but it also shows a lower longer-term EBITDA outlook driven by tighter commodity spreads.

Guidance delta

Current-year guidance was maintained, while the longer-term EBITDA outlook was lowered because of tighter commodity spreads.

Key takeaways

  • Management described strong quarter-over-quarter operating momentum and continued acquisition integration.
  • Synergy capture and organic infrastructure projects remain central to the growth plan.
  • Tax benefits support cash flow, but tighter spreads temper the longer-term outlook.
  • The main test is whether volume growth and project execution offset commodity and spread pressure.

Management priorities

  • Integrate acquired assets and realize planned synergies.
  • Advance processing, pipeline, fractionation, and LPG connectivity projects.
  • Develop gas sales opportunities tied to AI and data-center power demand.
  • Manage capital deployment and capture available tax benefits.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
OKE EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $1.20 Q4 '23 actual $1.18, miss Q1 '24 estimate $1.16 Q1 '24 actual $1.09, miss Q2 '24 estimate $1.21 Q2 '24 actual $1.33, beat Q3 '24 estimate $1.23 Q3 '24 actual $1.18, miss Q2 '25 estimate $1.33 Q2 '25 actual $1.34, match Q3 '25 estimate $1.44 Q3 '25 actual $1.49, beat Q4 '25 estimate $1.50 Q4 '25 actual $1.55, beat Q1 '26 estimate $1.30 Q1 '26 actual $1.23, miss Q2 '26 estimate $1.46 Q2 '26 actual $1.53, beat Q3 '26 estimate $1.48 Q4 '26 estimate $1.53 Q1 '27 estimate $1.47
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold38 ratings
Bullish1744.7%
Neutral2155.3%
Bearish00.0%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$89.23Previous close
$57Low
$86.8Average
$112High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 7, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
JP Morgan Neutral NeutralMaintainOct 6, 2026
TD Cowen Hold HoldMaintainSep 11, 2026
Morgan Stanley Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainSep 9, 2026
Citigroup Buy BuyMaintainSep 3, 2026
Wells Fargo Overweight OverweightMaintainSep 2, 2026
Show 33 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $89.23. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Capital One FinancialAnalyst unavailable$110$91.6 +23.3%Sep 22, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$93$95.72 +4.2%Sep 11, 2026
Morgan StanleyRobert Kad$112$97.42 +25.5%Sep 9, 2026
Truist FinancialGabe Daoud$104$94.89 +16.6%Sep 2, 2026
UBSAnalyst unavailable$105$95.69 +17.7%Sep 2, 2026
See 56 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

ONEOK, Inc., along with its subsidiaries, functions as a leading energy infrastructure company within the United States. Its primary focus is the comprehensive management of natural gas, encompassing gathering, processing, storage, and transportation. These operations are structured into three distinct segments: Natural Gas Gathering and Processing, Natural Gas Liquids (NGL), and Natural Gas Pipelines. The company owns an extensive system of natural gas gathering pipelines and processing plants, predominantly situated in the Mid-Continent and Rocky Mountain regions. Furthermore, ONEOK manages both federally (FERC) and state-regulated interstate and intrastate natural gas transmission pipelines, alongside crucial natural gas storage facilities. A significant component of ONEOK's business is dedicated to Natural Gas Liquids. The company handles the entire NGL value chain, from collecting, treating, and fractionating to transporting, storing, marketing, and distributing these products.…

Historical context

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-07T06:00:42.967250+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-07T06:00:42.964184+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-07. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.