Realty Income Corporation · O · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026

Realty Income Raises 2026 AFFO Guidance as Expansion Broadens

The current analysis supports a constructive operating thesis: raised 2026 AFFO guidance, a large acquisition pipeline, and partnership-led capital formation could support growth. The case remains dependent on disciplined underwriting, acquisition spreads, credit performance, and execution across new initiatives.

Reported After market closeNYSEReal Estate $51.42B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $0.32 Consensus $0.38
EPS surprise -16.6% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $1.40B Consensus $1.36B
Revenue surprise +2.8% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -0.8% Event window
SPY move +0.8% Same window
Abnormal move -1.6% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.1× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -9.0% Up to 20 sessions
OSPY benchmark

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Relative to the prior-quarter analysis, the company is now described as having raised 2026 AFFO guidance and targeting $8 billion of 2026 acquisitions. The current analysis also highlights Mexico expansion with GIC, an $800 million Blackstone perpetual preferred equity investment, and a $1.5 billion open-end fund.

Guidance delta

Management's analysis says 2026 AFFO guidance was raised to $4.38-$4.42 per share from the prior outlook.

Key takeaways

  • The analysis says 2026 AFFO guidance increased to $4.38-$4.42 per share.
  • Management's plan includes an $8 billion 2026 acquisition target across the U.S., Europe, and emerging markets.
  • Partnerships with GIC and Blackstone, plus an open-end fund, broaden the capital base and geographic reach.
  • AI and predictive analytics are being applied to sourcing, underwriting, asset management, and tenant-risk assessment.
  • Key execution questions include cap rates, credit losses, Mexico development, and open-end fund deployment.

Management priorities

  • Deploy the planned 2026 acquisition pipeline across the U.S., Europe, and emerging markets
  • Expand build-to-suit logistics development in Mexico with partners
  • Grow the open-end fund and related management-fee opportunity
  • Deepen AI integration across sourcing, underwriting, and asset management
  • Maintain disciplined underwriting and a spread over cost of capital

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
O REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 3 future estimate-only quarters. Q4 '23 estimate $1B Q4 '23 actual $1B, beat Q1 '24 estimate $1B Q1 '24 actual $1B, beat Q2 '24 estimate $1B Q2 '24 actual $1B, beat Q3 '24 estimate $1B Q3 '24 actual $1B, beat Q2 '25 estimate $1B Q2 '25 actual $1B, beat Q3 '25 estimate $1B Q3 '25 actual $1B, beat Q4 '25 estimate $1B Q4 '25 actual $1B, beat Q1 '26 estimate $1B Q1 '26 actual $1B, beat Q2 '26 estimate $1B Q2 '26 actual $1B, beat Q3 '26 estimate $1B Q4 '26 estimate $1B Q1 '27 estimate $1B
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusHold33 ratings
Bullish1236.4%
Neutral1854.5%
Bearish39.1%

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$55.14Previous close
$59Low
$66.83Average
$84High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted previous close from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 30, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Scotiabank Sector Perform Sector OutperformDowngradeSep 24, 2026
Evercore ISI Group In Line In LineMaintainSep 21, 2026
Mizuho Neutral NeutralMaintainSep 17, 2026
Barclays Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainSep 4, 2026
Wells Fargo Equal Weight Equal WeightMaintainSep 1, 2026
Show 28 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted previous close $55.14. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
ScotiabankAnalyst unavailable$59$55.61 +7.0%Sep 24, 2026
Evercore ISIAnalyst unavailable$65$56.84 +17.9%Sep 21, 2026
Mizuho SecuritiesAnalyst unavailable$61$57.15 +10.6%Sep 17, 2026
BarclaysRichard Hightower$65$61.74 +17.9%Sep 4, 2026
Wells FargoAnalyst unavailable$64$61.28 +16.1%Sep 1, 2026
See 39 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

Known as "The Monthly Dividend Company," Realty Income is an S&P 500 corporation committed to delivering reliable monthly income to its shareholders. Operating as a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT), its monthly payouts are generated from the consistent cash flow of over 6,500 commercial properties, which are leased to various businesses under long-term contracts. With a remarkable 52-year operational history, the firm (NYSE: O) has announced 608 uninterrupted monthly dividends for its common stock and has increased its dividend payout 109 times since going public in 1994. It also holds a distinguished position within the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats index. For additional details, please visit the company's official website at www.realtyincome.com.

Historical context

All O earnings

Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:36:15.940040+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-30T04:56:04.163227+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-30T04:56:04.160311+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-30. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.