Analyst Consensus ?
ConsensusHold25 ratings
Bullish624.0%
Neutral1768.0%
Bearish28.0%
Novartis AG · NVS · FY2025 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026
Novartis posts strong FY2025 growth while flagging 2026 deal effects
Novartis enters FY 2026 with evidence of resilient demand in priority brands and a broad late-stage pipeline, supporting the longer-term growth case. Against that, near-term earnings quality faces generic competition, gross-to-net volatility and the financial effects of the Avidity acquisition.
Reported Before market openNYSEHealthcare
$292.35B market cap
90quality score
Earnings scorecard
Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS
$2.03
Consensus $1.99
EPS surprise
+2.0%
Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue
$13.34B
Consensus $13.70B
Revenue surprise
-2.7%
Reported versus consensus
Market reaction
prior-close to event-session close
Stock move
+2.0%
Event window
SPY move
-0.5%
Same window
Abnormal move
+2.5%
Stock minus SPY
Volume
2.3×
Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift
+5.3%
Up to 20 sessions
NVSSPY benchmark
Ask FN2 about NVS FY2025 Q4
Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did NVS rise 2.0% after beating EPS estimates in FY2025 Q4?What changed in NVS's guidance and outlook in FY2025 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for NVS after FY2025 Q4 earnings.
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Transcript intelligence
What changed
FY 2025 ended with 8% sales growth and a 40.1% core margin, while the FY 2026 outlook calls for low-single-digit sales growth and a modest core operating income decline. Management also emphasized multiple 2026 pipeline readouts, launches and manufacturing expansions.
Guidance delta
Management maintained FY 2026 guidance: low-single-digit sales growth and a modest core operating income decline, while retaining a 5–6% CAGR objective through 2030.
Key takeaways
- FY 2025 sales grew 8% and core margin reached 40.1%, ahead of the company’s target timetable.
- Kisqali, Kesimpta, Scemblix and Pluvicto were highlighted as major growth contributors.
- The 2026 setup combines pipeline milestones and new launches with generic competition and Avidity-related margin pressure.
Management priorities
- Expand priority brands including Kisqali, Kesimpta, Scemblix and Pluvicto.
- Advance late-stage programs including remibrutinib, pelabresib and pelacarsen.
- Invest in manufacturing capacity, R&D and the global rollout of new therapies.
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Estimate
Beat
Miss
Match
Analyst 52W Price Targets
$156.28Current
$120Low
$133.67Average
$156High
Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Oct 27, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.
Firm-level rating actions
FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.
| Firm | Rating | Prior rating | Action | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HSBC | Hold | Reduce | Upgrade | Sep 10, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Overweight | Overweight | Maintain | Mar 26, 2026 |
| Barclays | Equal Weight | Underweight | Upgrade | Jan 6, 2026 |
| JP Morgan | Overweight | Neutral | Upgrade | Dec 8, 2025 |
| Goldman Sachs | Sell | Neutral | Downgrade | Sep 12, 2025 |
| UBS | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 13, 2025 |
| Erste Group | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Nov 19, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Oct 30, 2024 |
| B of A Securities | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Sep 11, 2024 |
| Jefferies | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Sep 3, 2024 |
| Wolfe Research | Peer Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | May 9, 2022 |
| Exane BNP Paribas | Neutral | Outperform | Downgrade | Dec 6, 2021 |
| Bryan Garnier | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Dec 3, 2021 |
| Deutsche Bank | Sell | Hold | Downgrade | Sep 20, 2021 |
| Argus Research | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Mar 10, 2021 |
| Cowen & Co. | Market Perform | Outperform | Downgrade | Feb 1, 2021 |
| Guggenheim Securities | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 25, 2020 |
| Guggenheim | Neutral | Buy | Downgrade | Feb 25, 2020 |
| Citigroup | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Sep 11, 2018 |
| Bank of America | Buy | Underperform | Upgrade | Sep 10, 2018 |
| Credit Suisse | Neutral | Underperform | Upgrade | May 25, 2018 |
| Argus | Buy | Hold | Upgrade | May 5, 2018 |
| Leerink Swann | Market Perform | Market Perform | Maintain | Jan 25, 2018 |
| Natixis | Buy | Neutral | Upgrade | Mar 4, 2015 |
| Hamburger Sparkasse | Hold | Buy | Downgrade | Jan 16, 2013 |
Named analyst price targets
Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $156.28. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.
| Firm | Analyst | 52W target | Price when posted | Upside | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Stanley | Thibault Boutherin | $156 | $140.85 | -0.2% | Oct 6, 2026 |
| HSBC | Analyst unavailable | $136 | $137.48 | -13.0% | Sep 10, 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley | Thibault Boutherin | $170 | $149.7 | +8.8% | Mar 26, 2026 |
| HSBC | Analyst unavailable | $112 | $131.01 | -28.3% | Dec 10, 2025 |
| Morgan Stanley | Analyst unavailable | $143 | $132.28 | -8.5% | Dec 3, 2025 |
| CFRA | Wan Nurhayati | $126 | $123.33 | -19.4% | Oct 29, 2025 |
| BMO Capital | Etzer Darout | $120 | $109.91 | -23.2% | Oct 30, 2024 |
| Goldman Sachs | James Quigley | $121 | $119.38 | -22.6% | Sep 5, 2024 |
| BMO Capital | Etzer Darout | $118 | $106.13 | -24.5% | Jul 19, 2024 |
| CFRA | Wan Nurhayati | $108 | $97.27 | -30.9% | Apr 23, 2024 |
Track every rating change on NVS the moment it posts. Free to start.
Start freeCompany context
Snapshot as of publicationNovartis AG is a holding company, which engages in the business of developing, manufacturing, and marketing healthcare products. Its product portfolio is heavily focused on innovative prescription medicines, especially oncology, immunology, neuroscience, and cardiovascular diseases, supplemented by established older brands and a wide range of specialized therapies. The company was founded on February 29, 1996 and is headquartered in Basel, Switzerland.
Historical context
All NVS earningsHealthcare peers this season
Latest reports in the same sector| Company | Quarter | EPS surprise | Market move | Headline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNC Centene Corp. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | — | +1.7% | Centene raises 2026 EPS outlook as margins hold up |
| HCA HCA Healthcare, Inc. | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | — | -5.3% | HCA volume growth holds, but payer mix and Medicaid weigh on outlook |
| RGEN Repligen Corporation | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | — | -2.2% | Repligen posts record Q3 revenue and raises 2026 guidance |
| RDY Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Limited | FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +24.0% | -0.2% | Dr. Reddy’s: margins improve as semaglutide rollout advances |
| DGX Quest Diagnostics Incorporated | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | +4.5% | +1.8% | Quest Diagnostics: growth broadens, but PAMA remains a headwind |
| ARGX argenx SE | FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2026 | — | -1.6% | argenx: VYVGART momentum and a broader late-stage pipeline |
Latest beats and misses
Who reports nextBeat on EPS
- VZFY2026 Q3 · October 26, 2026+3.1% EPS-3.5% move
- CXFY2026 Q3 · October 26, 2026+12.0% EPS-0.1% move
- CDNSFY2026 Q3 · October 26, 2026+2.9% EPS+1.8% move
- BAHFY2027 Q2 · October 23, 2026+18.9% EPS-0.3% move
- FCNCAFY2026 Q3 · October 23, 2026+19.9% EPS+8.2% move
- FCNCNFY2026 Q3 · October 23, 2026+19.9% EPS+0.2% move
Missed on EPS
- NUEFY2026 Q3 · October 26, 2026-0.7% EPS+5.9% move
- PFGFY2026 Q3 · October 26, 2026-8.6% EPS+0.3% move
- WELLFY2026 Q3 · October 26, 2026-15.8% EPS-5.3% move
- KOFFY2026 Q3 · October 26, 2026-9.0% EPS-1.9% move
- INFYFY2027 Q2 · October 23, 2026-4.8% EPS-6.6% move
- BBDFY2026 Q3 · October 22, 2026-7.7% EPS+3.0% move
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Sources
- Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
- FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
- Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-10-27T15:50:41.585212+00:00
- Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-10-27T15:50:41.582390+00:00
Methodology
Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.
Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.
Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.
By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-10-27. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.