NVIDIA Corporation · NVDA · FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026

NVIDIA posts record revenue as Blackwell demand expands

The supplied analysis supports a constructive but conditional view: resilient AI-infrastructure demand, Blackwell adoption, networking expansion, and the Vera Rubin roadmap support continued growth, while capex sustainability, supply constraints, export rules, and margins are the key tests.

Reported After market closeNASDAQTechnology $5462.08B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $1.62 Consensus $1.54
EPS surprise +5.2% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $68.13B Consensus $66.13B
Revenue surprise +3.0% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -5.5% Event window
SPY move -0.6% Same window
Abnormal move -4.9% Stock minus SPY
Volume 2.0× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift -7.4% Up to 20 sessions
NVDASPY benchmark

Ask FN2 about NVDA FY2026 Q4

Transcript, numbers and history already loaded
Why did NVDA fall 5.5% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q4?What changed in NVDA's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q4?Give me the bull and bear case for NVDA after FY2026 Q4 earnings.

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Relative to the prior-quarter analysis, the supplied current analysis adds record $68 billion revenue, 75% year-over-year data-center growth, $11 billion networking revenue, initial Vera Rubin samples with volume production targeted for the second half of FY2026, and stronger emphasis on gaming supply constraints and sovereign and physical AI.

Guidance delta

Maintained; the supplied analysis cites FY2027 revenue guidance of $78 billion.

Key takeaways

  • The supplied analysis describes record quarterly revenue of $68 billion, with data-center revenue up 75% year over year.
  • Networking revenue reached $11 billion, more than 3.5 times the prior-year level.
  • Management’s plan includes ramping Vera Rubin volume shipments in the second half of FY2026.
  • Gaming demand remains strong, but supply constraints are expected to pressure growth.
  • The call highlighted sovereign AI, inference, robotics, and autonomous-vehicle opportunities.

Management priorities

  • Ramp the Vera Rubin platform and related networking products.
  • Expand partnerships across AI model developers and ecosystem participants.
  • Develop sovereign AI, robotics, automotive, and physical-AI offerings.
  • Manage GPU supply and continue ecosystem investment.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
NVDA REVENUE earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q3 '24 estimate $15B Q3 '24 actual $18B, beat Q4 '24 estimate $20B Q4 '24 actual $22B, beat Q1 '25 estimate $25B Q1 '25 actual $26B, beat Q2 '25 estimate $29B Q2 '25 actual $30B, beat Q2 '26 estimate $46B Q2 '26 actual $47B, beat Q3 '26 estimate $55B Q3 '26 actual $57B, beat Q4 '26 estimate $66B Q4 '26 actual $68B, beat Q1 '27 estimate $78B Q1 '27 actual $82B, beat Q2 '27 estimate $92B Q2 '27 actual $96B, beat Q3 '27 estimate $109B Q4 '27 estimate $124B Q1 '28 estimate $143B Q2 '28 estimate $162B
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy77 ratings
Bullish6077.9%
Neutral1418.2%
Bearish33.9%

1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$224.58Current
$13.3Low
$222.79Average
$515High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 25, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Rosenblatt Buy BuyMaintainSep 4, 2026
Needham Buy BuyMaintainSep 4, 2026
Wedbush Outperform OutperformMaintainAug 27, 2026
UBS Buy BuyMaintainAug 27, 2026
Truist Securities Buy BuyMaintainAug 27, 2026
Show 73 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $224.58. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Piper SandlerAnalyst unavailable$300$223.67 +33.6%Sep 9, 2026
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$346$225.98 +54.1%Aug 27, 2026
D.A. DavidsonGil Luria$300$225.64 +33.6%Aug 27, 2026
RBC CapitalAnalyst unavailable$330$225.53 +46.9%Aug 27, 2026
NeedhamQuinn Bolton$300$224.71 +33.6%Aug 27, 2026
See 306 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

NVIDIA Corporation stands as a prominent provider of advanced graphics, computational, and networking solutions, operating across the United States, Taiwan, China, and numerous international markets. Its Graphics division encompasses GeForce GPUs, central to PC gaming and personal computing experiences, along with the GeForce NOW cloud gaming service and its supporting infrastructure, as well as dedicated solutions for various gaming platforms. For professional visualization, it provides Quadro and NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstations, further offering vGPU software designed for cloud-centric visual and virtual computing, automotive platforms for in-vehicle infotainment, and the Omniverse software suite, facilitating 3D design and virtual world creation. The Compute & Networking segment is a cornerstone for AI, high-performance computing (HPC), and accelerated data center platforms.…

Historical context

All NVDA earnings
+8.7%FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026-1.8%FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026

Technology peers this season

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ADBE Adobe Inc. FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 +0.8% +1.4% Adobe raises FY26 outlook as AI strategy broadens
ORCL Oracle Corporation FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 +10.3% -1.7% Oracle raises FY27 outlook as AI demand accelerates cloud growth
SAIL SailPoint, Inc. FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 +13.8% -1.2% SailPoint pairs 25% ARR growth with accelerating AI-driven adoption
CIEN Ciena Corporation FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 +22.0% -10.4% Ciena raises outlook as AI networking demand lifts backlog
DOCU DocuSign, Inc. FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 +6.4% +3.7% DocuSign Q2 FY27: IAM momentum supports a raised outlook

Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-24T23:20:54.583376+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-24T23:20:54.579967+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-24. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.