NVIDIA Corporation · NVDA · FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q4 2025

NVIDIA Q3: Record Revenue, Strong AI Demand, Supply Risks

The call supports a strong-demand thesis for NVIDIA’s AI infrastructure business: record Q3 revenue, a $65 billion Q4 outlook, and continued platform expansion point to momentum. The evidence is balanced by supply, margin, geopolitical, and financing risks.

Reported After market closeNASDAQTechnology $5451.42B market cap
100quality score

Earnings scorecard

Reported versus consensus
Reported EPS $1.30 Consensus $1.26
EPS surprise +3.2% Reported versus consensus
Reported revenue $57.01B Consensus $54.96B
Revenue surprise +3.7% Reported versus consensus

Market reaction

event-close to next-session close
Stock move -3.2% Event window
SPY move -1.5% Same window
Abnormal move -1.6% Stock minus SPY
Volume 1.7× Versus trailing sessions
Subsequent drift +0.2% Up to 20 sessions
NVDASPY benchmark

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Why did NVDA fall 3.2% after beating EPS estimates in FY2026 Q3?What changed in NVDA's guidance and outlook in FY2026 Q3?Give me the bull and bear case for NVDA after FY2026 Q3 earnings.

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Transcript intelligence

What changed

Compared with the prior-quarter analysis, the current call shows Q3 revenue of $57 billion versus $46.7 billion previously, data-center growth of 66% year over year versus 56%, and a Q4 revenue outlook of $65 billion versus the prior $54 billion Q3 outlook. The current analysis also shifts emphasis toward Rubin, CPX, and a stated $500 billion Blackwell/Rubin opportunity.

Guidance delta

Management maintained its guidance stance; the current analysis cites a $65 billion Q4 revenue outlook and mid-70s gross-margin targets.

Key takeaways

  • Q3 revenue reached $57 billion, with data-center revenue of $51 billion, up 66% year over year.
  • Management said AI infrastructure demand remains strong and described cloud customers as fully utilizing new and existing GPU generations.
  • The Q4 revenue outlook is $65 billion, implying 14% sequential growth, with gross-margin targets maintained in the mid-70s range.
  • Management is advancing the Rubin platform and CPX for long-context workloads.
  • The call also highlighted supply-chain, input-cost, China, and AI-factory financing risks.

Management priorities

  • Ramp the Rubin platform and launch CPX for long-context workloads.
  • Deploy an additional 5 million GPUs for AI-factory projects.
  • Continue ecosystem partnerships and stock buybacks while investing in growth.
  • Expand AI solutions across automotive, healthcare, and digital-twin markets.
  • Maintain cost control and supply-chain planning for 2027.

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Earnings History

Estimate Beat Miss Match
NVDA EPS earnings history estimate and actual scatter chart 9 reported fiscal quarters and 4 future estimate-only quarters. Q3 '24 estimate $0.34 Q3 '24 actual $0.40, beat Q4 '24 estimate $0.46 Q4 '24 actual $0.52, beat Q1 '25 estimate $0.56 Q1 '25 actual $0.61, beat Q2 '25 estimate $0.64 Q2 '25 actual $0.68, beat Q2 '26 estimate $1.01 Q2 '26 actual $1.05, beat Q3 '26 estimate $1.26 Q3 '26 actual $1.30, beat Q4 '26 estimate $1.54 Q4 '26 actual $1.62, beat Q1 '27 estimate $1.76 Q1 '27 actual $1.87, beat Q2 '27 estimate $2.09 Q2 '27 actual $2.22, beat Q3 '27 estimate $2.47 Q4 '27 estimate $2.73 Q1 '28 estimate $3.17 Q2 '28 estimate $3.63
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Analyst Consensus ?

ConsensusBuy77 ratings
Bullish6077.9%
Neutral1418.2%
Bearish33.9%

1 unmapped firm rating excluded from the percentages.

Analyst 52W Price Targets

$228.86Current
$13.3Low
$222.79Average
$515High

Latest persisted target per named analyst; persisted current price from FN2's market snapshot as of Sep 28, 2026. Not an FN2 forecast.

Firm-level rating actions

FMP grade actions identify the grading firm, not a named analyst.

FirmRatingPrior ratingActionDate
Rosenblatt Buy BuyMaintainSep 4, 2026
Needham Buy BuyMaintainSep 4, 2026
Wedbush Outperform OutperformMaintainAug 27, 2026
UBS Buy BuyMaintainAug 27, 2026
Truist Securities Buy BuyMaintainAug 27, 2026
Show 73 more rating actions

Named analyst price targets

Upside is calculated against the persisted current price $228.86. FMP does not supply a rating on these named-analyst rows.

FirmAnalyst52W targetPrice when postedUpsideDate
Piper SandlerAnalyst unavailable$300$223.67 +31.1%Sep 9, 2026
Truist FinancialAnalyst unavailable$346$225.98 +51.2%Aug 27, 2026
D.A. DavidsonGil Luria$300$225.64 +31.1%Aug 27, 2026
RBC CapitalAnalyst unavailable$330$225.53 +44.2%Aug 27, 2026
NeedhamQuinn Bolton$300$224.71 +31.1%Aug 27, 2026
See 306 more

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Company context

Snapshot as of publication

NVIDIA Corporation stands as a prominent provider of advanced graphics, computational, and networking solutions, operating across the United States, Taiwan, China, and numerous international markets. Its Graphics division encompasses GeForce GPUs, central to PC gaming and personal computing experiences, along with the GeForce NOW cloud gaming service and its supporting infrastructure, as well as dedicated solutions for various gaming platforms. For professional visualization, it provides Quadro and NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstations, further offering vGPU software designed for cloud-centric visual and virtual computing, automotive platforms for in-vehicle infotainment, and the Omniverse software suite, facilitating 3D design and virtual world creation. The Compute & Networking segment is a cornerstone for AI, high-performance computing (HPC), and accelerated data center platforms.…

Historical context

All NVDA earnings
+8.7%FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026-1.8%FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q2 2026-5.5%FY2026 Q4 · Calendar Q1 2026

Technology peers this season

Latest reports in the same sector
CompanyQuarterEPS surpriseMarket moveHeadline
SNX TD Synnex Corp FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 +20.9% -9.9% TD SYNNEX: AI-led growth accelerates, but mix and cash flow matter
ADBE Adobe Inc. FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 +0.8% +1.4% Adobe raises FY26 outlook as AI strategy broadens
ORCL Oracle Corporation FY2027 Q1 · Calendar Q3 2026 +10.3% -1.7% Oracle raises FY27 outlook as AI demand accelerates cloud growth
SAIL SailPoint, Inc. FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 +13.8% -1.2% SailPoint pairs 25% ARR growth with accelerating AI-driven adoption
CIEN Ciena Corporation FY2026 Q3 · Calendar Q3 2026 +22.0% -10.4% Ciena raises outlook as AI networking demand lifts backlog
DOCU DocuSign, Inc. FY2027 Q2 · Calendar Q3 2026 +6.4% +3.7% DocuSign Q2 FY27: IAM momentum supports a raised outlook

Latest beats and misses

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Sources

  1. Earnings call transcript and parsed analysis · 2026-05-11T10:29:34.698584+00:00
  2. FN2 earnings calendar · 2026-07-26T00:37:12.209961+00:00
  3. Polygon adjusted daily market bars · 2026-09-28T20:11:00.316696+00:00
  4. Financial Modeling Prep analyst price-target consensus and quote snapshot · 2026-09-28T20:11:00.313720+00:00

Methodology

Reported and consensus figures come from FN2's earnings event records. Market reaction and volume are calculated from daily adjusted bars around the event; abnormal move subtracts the SPY move over the same window.

Analyst target low, average, and high values are derived at request time from each named analyst's latest persisted FMP target. The current-price marker comes from FN2's persisted market snapshot. They are sell-side estimates, not an FN2 valuation or recommendation.

Transcript intelligence is a structured synthesis of the current and prior earnings-call analyses. Missing values stay missing and are never estimated.

By FN2 Research · Updated · As of 2026-09-28. For educational purposes only; not investment advice.